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One of the best things from Tuesday's election.

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  • One of the best things from Tuesday's election.

    Joe Arpaio losses by a little over 10% of the vote 55% to 45%. Got to take the little ones.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

  • #2
    Joe Arpaio will have a post in Trump's administration. I believe it will be with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Percy Coburg View Post
      Joe Arpaio will have a post in Trump's administration. I believe it will be with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
      Right now he's just hoping to not be in jail in six months.
      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
      “To talk of many things:
      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
      Of cabbages—and kings—
      And why the sea is boiling hot—
      And whether pigs have wings.”
      ― Lewis Carroll

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Percy Coburg View Post
        Joe Arpaio will have a post in Trump's administration. I believe it will be with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
        Let's hope not. Joke Arpaio is not the guy you want running anything.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
          Let's hope not. Joke Arpaio is not the guy you want running anything.
          Yes, the county Tax payers know that very well, they foot his legal bills.
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • #6
            While I have a great deal of respect for Nate Silver... This is the best thing to come out of this Election...
            NOV 8, 2016 AT 10:41 AM

            Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton

            By Nate Silver

            Throughout the election, our forecast models have consistently come to two conclusions. First, that Hillary Clinton was more likely than not to become the next president. And second, that the range of possible Electoral College outcomes — including the chance of a Donald Trump victory, but also a Clinton landslide that could see her winning states such as Arizona — was comparatively wide.

            That remains our outlook today in our final forecast of the year. Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model. (The models are essentially the same at this point, so they show about the same forecast.) This reflects a meaningful improvement for Clinton in the past 48 hours as the news cycle has taken a final half-twist in her favor. Her chances have increased from about 65 percent.

            Our forecast has Clinton favored in states and congressional districts totaling 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina. However, because our forecasts are probabilistic, and because Clinton’s leads in North Carolina and Florida especially are tenuous, the average number of electoral votes we forecast for Clinton is 302, which would be equivalent to her winning either Florida or North Carolina but not both.



            [...]

            Despite what you might think, we haven’t been trying to scare anyone with these updates. The goal of a probabilistic model is not to provide deterministic predictions (“Clinton will win Wisconsin”) but instead to provide an assessment of probabilities and risks. In 2012, the risks to to Obama were lower than was commonly acknowledged, because of the low number of undecided voters and his unusually robust polling in swing states. In 2016, just the opposite is true: There are lots of undecideds, and Clinton’s polling leads are somewhat thin in swing states. Nonetheless, Clinton is probably going to win, and she could win by a big margin.

            http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...me-up-clinton/


            The issue is the fact that each State is statistically independent. 538 gave Trump a 1 in 4 chance to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If Trump won Florida and North Carolina, where 538 made Clinton the narrow favorite, Trump only needed to win one of the 1 in 4 States to win. So Hillary's 71% chance of winning wasn't even close to a sure thing... Assuming the polls were predictive.

            Statistical models are great heuristic tools... However, all models are dependent on input data. Most of the polls this year were too unstable to be predictive and resulted in Nate's first total GIGO.

            to Nate Silver and the 538 crew.
            Last edited by The Doctor; 09 Nov 16, 12:08.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

            Comment


            • #7
              The only think they missed, and missed big, was the rust belt sweep, same with the Dems. It's their turn now to hold an AAR and learn from the event. Just like the GOP needs to broaden it's base, yes even with a EC win they are not heading in the right long term path, the Dems have some serious changes they need to make.

              Only time will tell.

              Total government control, Congress and WH, brought us Obamacare, I don't see this time being any different.
              “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
              “To talk of many things:
              Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
              Of cabbages—and kings—
              And why the sea is boiling hot—
              And whether pigs have wings.”
              ― Lewis Carroll

              Comment


              • #8
                Well, the polls this time were about as accurate as climate change model predictions...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                  The only think they missed, and missed big, was the rust belt sweep, same with the Dems. It's their turn now to hold an AAR and learn from the event. Just like the GOP needs to broaden it's base, yes even with a EC win they are not heading in the right long term path, the Dems have some serious changes they need to make.

                  Only time will tell.

                  Total government control, Congress and WH, brought us Obamacare, I don't see this time being any different.
                  The thing is that they didn't have to be off that much to miss big.

                  If Trump carried FL and NC, where Clinton was only slightly favored, he only needed to win 1 of the 3 rust belt States in which he had a 1 in 4 chance of winning. He would up winning all 3 of those, assuming he wins MI.

                  Most people don't understand that Nate runs 10,000 election simulations with each model run. Trump won 2,860 of the last 10,000 simulations. That's actually a very significant chance of winning.
                  Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                    Well, the polls this time were about as accurate as climate change model predictions...
                    That would be incorrect. Off in 3 states. PA, MI and WI. The polls had FL and NC as a pure toss up. Otherwise the polling was quite good.
                    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                    “To talk of many things:
                    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                    Of cabbages—and kings—
                    And why the sea is boiling hot—
                    And whether pigs have wings.”
                    ― Lewis Carroll

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      The best thing was trump winning. The second best was the hillibeast losing. And the third best is the threads by the disloyal trying to salvage some dignity.
                      Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                        Well, the polls this time were about as accurate as climate change model predictions...
                        IBD/TIPP and the Trafalgar Group came closest to nailing it. IBD/TIPP also nailed 2008 & 2012. Trafalgar's methodology might just have been "tuned" to a Trump-type candidacy... We won't know until they develop a track record.
                        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                          That would be incorrect. Off in 3 states. PA, MI and WI. The polls had FL and NC as a pure toss up. Otherwise the polling was quite good.
                          Trafalgar Group had Trump winning MI, PA, FL and GA (by a wide margin).

                          The signal to noise ratio in the polls was too low for 538's model to be predictive.
                          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                            Trafalgar Group had Trump winning MI, PA, FL and GA (by a wide margin).
                            GA was never really in play. Pure press hype to add another state to the 'important states to watch'.
                            “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                            “To talk of many things:
                            Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                            Of cabbages—and kings—
                            And why the sea is boiling hot—
                            And whether pigs have wings.”
                            ― Lewis Carroll

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                              The only think they missed, and missed big, was the rust belt sweep, same with the Dems. It's their turn now to hold an AAR and learn from the event. Just like the GOP needs to broaden it's base, yes even with a EC win they are not heading in the right long term path, the Dems have some serious changes they need to make.

                              Only time will tell.
                              I've got to figure that, despite genuine demographic changes to the electorate over the last sixteen years, that a significant number of people voted for Geo W Bush in 2000 and 2004, then voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and have voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Is there any discernible pattern here ?

                              Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                              Total government control, Congress and WH, brought us Obamacare, I don't see this time being any different.
                              Maybe -- but it can't be ignored that there have developed a lot of rifts within the GOP over recent years. Technically, Trump is a "RINO." He's already been plain about his unwillingness to play in the "culture wars." Combine that with the fact that very few Senate seats changed parties this cycle, and Trump may face a difficult time with conservative Republicans, especially in the Senate. I can see his honeymoon being especially short.
                              I was married for two ******* years! Hell would be like Club Med! - Sam Kinison

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