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  • Bankruptcies Soar 38%

    Six years of Fed & Wall Street hype come home to roost

    Something funny happened on the way to the bank: In August, commercial and industrial loans outstanding at all banks in the US fell for the first time month-to-month since October 2010, which had marked the end of the collapse of credit during the Financial Crisis.
    http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/06/gre...ruptcies-soar/
    In September this year, bankruptcies exceed those from a year ago by 855 filings – the 38% jump. March and May saw similar year-over-year increases. So this looks like it’s the beginning of a new and long trend that is not going to fit into the rosy scenario.

    Rising bankruptcies are an indicator that the “credit cycle” has ended. The Fed’s policy of easy credit has encouraged businesses to borrow – those that could. But by now, this six-year debt binge has created an ominous debt overhang that is suffocating these businesses as they find themselves, against all promises, mired in an economy that’s nothing like the escape-velocity hype that had emanated from Wall Street, the Fed, and the government.

    Restaurants are experiencing a wage of bankruptcies that rivals that of 2009-2010, with “very challenging” sales trends. Read… http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/02/res...nce-index-rpi/
    The bubble is much bigger and much more fragile than it was in 2008.
    And if it bursts the day after the election, the Left will say it is all Trump's fault.
    Count on it.
    "Why is the Rum gone?"

    -Captain Jack

  • #2
    I love your doom and gloom threads. If i remember correctly in Feb or so you predicted a massive recession this year... I guess this is the start. Might want to hunt up some zerohedge articles to go with this one.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
      I love your doom and gloom threads. If i remember correctly in Feb or so you predicted a massive recession this year... .
      Like i am the only one?



      The numbers-

      DB started the year announcing a record-breaking loss of 6.8 Billion Euros.

      Stocks are now down 48%, 12.60 a share. That is 8% of what it was worth 9 years ago.

      They are laying off 9,000 employees in 10 different countries.

      The IMF now calls it the most dangerous bank in the world.

      And if you have no idea why Deutsch Bank is important in this Global Economy we are wedded to, I suggest you get educated, or just watch the vid for once.





      "Why is the Rum gone?"

      -Captain Jack

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
        Six years of Fed & Wall Street hype come home to roost


        http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/06/gre...ruptcies-soar/


        The bubble is much bigger and much more fragile than it was in 2008.
        And if it bursts the day after the election, the Left will say it is all Trump's fault.
        Count on it.
        Dont get me wrong Exorcist,i like your posts (even when we exchange negative points) but you sound too much pessimistic.

        USA will find the way to counter economic problems. It will not be first time . Nor last time.

        Great economies will just adapt,like in 2008.
        Fortess fortuan adiuvat

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by hawker_gb View Post
          ...
          Great economies will just adapt,like in 2008.
          If we had any 'great' economies, you might be right.

          However, its is not that kind of world anymore, even China is under a mountain of debt. The oil-rich states managed to -away their monetary reserves, and .... just watch a vid and get back to me on something specific.
          I'm too down to even rant anymore.
          "Why is the Rum gone?"

          -Captain Jack

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by hawker_gb View Post
            Dont get me wrong Exorcist,i like your posts (even when we exchange negative points) but you sound too much pessimistic.

            USA will find the way to counter economic problems. It will not be first time . Nor last time.

            Great economies will just adapt,like in 2008.
            You mean like the Great American Depression in the 30's? That kind of solution?

            The Solution is JOBS, and there aren't any.

            But the usual "solution", as history will clearly tell you, is war.
            Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

            Comment


            • #7
              If there's a "bubble" to burst, economically, it's the student loan one. Since people can't discharge these through bankruptcy, I can see them mass defaulting on them and the loan being discharged through collections. Such people would not want to be employed (at least legally) as that would just make collection easier. Or, they convert their student loan to another type of loan, paying of the official "student" loan, then default on the new loan they can declare in a bankruptcy.

              You'd have a top down collapse this time. That is, the most educated and employable people defaulting rather than the usual workers and marginally getting by.

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              • #8
                How many of these bankruptcies were Trump companies?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                  You mean like the Great American Depression in the 30's? That kind of solution?

                  The Solution is JOBS, and there aren't any.

                  But the usual "solution", as history will clearly tell you, is war.
                  Not unusal of late but...wrong again.

                  http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin.../#5c2deb5f246d

                  There Are 4 Million U.S. Job Openings: Why Are The Positions Unfilled?



                  If you’re paying attention to the U.S.’s economic recovery, you’ll probably know that there are about 11 million unemployed citizens and strong disagreements about how to create more jobs. What you may not know is that there are actually four million open jobs waiting to be filled, and that American businesses could be filling more of those jobs – if they better utilized technology.
                  "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                  Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                  you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                    ...
                    But the usual "solution", as history will clearly tell you, is war.
                    Sad to get confirmation like that, but there is another thread that I started here for that.


                    Originally posted by johns624 View Post
                    How many of these bankruptcies were Trump companies?
                    About 1% of the them.
                    Not bad, and if anyone can patch up this sinking ship, I think it would be him.
                    "Why is the Rum gone?"

                    -Captain Jack

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                      Not unusal of late but...wrong again.

                      http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin.../#5c2deb5f246d

                      There Are 4 Million U.S. Job Openings: Why Are The Positions Unfilled?
                      That sort of thing often arises from a mismatch of expectations, skills and jobs. It happens everywhere for example for years Egypt had far more doctors, teachers and lawyers than it could employ domestically and a major shortage of skilled carpenters, electricians etc. A lot of the doctors came over here where we haven't trained enough but as countries begin to get protectionist restricting migration to protect jobs that approach will stop working
                      Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                      Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by MarkV View Post
                        That sort of thing often arises from a mismatch of expectations, skills and jobs. It happens everywhere for example for years Egypt had far more doctors, teachers and lawyers than it could employ domestically and a major shortage of skilled carpenters, electricians etc. A lot of the doctors came over here where we haven't trained enough but as countries begin to get protectionist restricting migration to protect jobs that approach will stop working
                        Check where those "jobs" are, what they pay and the work actually entails. A lot of Americans are grossly over-qualified for the low paying positions being offered, or too old to be hired no matter how qualified, and when unemployment pays as much or ore than working, why bother?

                        If you have never tried to get a job your are over-qualified for, it is a humbling experience, and being told you are too old to hire - ie., too expensive - is even more degrading. I can personally attest to both.
                        Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

                        Comment

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