Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2016 Presidential Election Poll Update Thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2016 Presidential Election Poll Update Thread

    Because we are entering the end-game for the elections, and new polls / updated numbers will be coming hard and fast, this thread will be the new location to post them all - for ease of reference and to prevent there being multiple concurrent posts on the latest polling returns. Try to post new threads along similar lines here.

    I'll start us off with the latest general election polls published on RCP:

    Wednesday, October 12
    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 43, Trump 39, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +4
    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 44 Tie
    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 44, Trump 37, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Clinton +7
    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 44, Trump 37 Clinton +7


    This is a very significant change, considering the LA Times has consistently given us the most favorable numbers for Trump, placing Trump as being up by approximately 3/4 points for weeks now.

    Consider these previous results on their rolling polling data:

    Tuesday, October 11
    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 45 Trump +2


    Tuesday, October 4
    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 47 Trump +4

  • #2
    Lots of pretty good quality of State Polling is finally happening. It's time to watch those more so than the National polling. Unless of course the National Polls start to go even more to one candidate.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
      Lots of pretty good quality of State Polling is finally happening. It's time to watch those more so than the National polling. Unless of course the National Polls start to go even more to one candidate.
      Indeed. Your standard swing states are the biggest ones to watch, especially Florida and Ohio. But considering those states have favored Clinton (though some may still be within the margin of error) for some time, Trump is going to have to really up his game (and gains) in those battleground states.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
        Indeed. Your standard swing states are the biggest ones to watch, especially Florida and Ohio. But considering those states have favored Clinton (though some may still be within the margin of error) for some time, Trump is going to have to really up his game (and gains) in those battleground states.
        He has to actually get in the game and start playing. He lost another week running against the GOP instead of Mrs Clinton.

        A two weeks ago I was very much willing to say Trump would take Ohio and Iowa. Ohio is a big chunk of EC votes. In the last two weeks he's blown them. In the end I think he takes Iowa and will compete in Ohio, will he win Ohio? 50-50.
        “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
        “To talk of many things:
        Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
        Of cabbages—and kings—
        And why the sea is boiling hot—
        And whether pigs have wings.”
        ― Lewis Carroll

        Comment


        • #5
          New Info on the USC/LA Times poll.

          Very interesting look at the data. One thing that the poll has going for it is that it is very, very transparent. Publishes basically all of their data and methods, unlike many private companies.

          This allowed the NYT election data section to discover a very interesting 'bit'. Besides the previously discussed factor of weighing based on how the person claims to have voted in 2012, the poll weighs a number of smaller groups than normal and does not limit the amount of weighting a single respondent can get.

          The end result is that a single 19 year old African American living in Illinois routinely counts as much as 3000 other respondents in the pool.

          Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/up...=top-news&_r=0

          They are weighing the 18-20 year old group. They are weighing by last vote and more importantly weighing heavily any African American, there are not many in the poll.

          There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election.
          How? He’s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, which has emerged as the biggest polling outlier of the presidential campaign. Despite falling behind by double digits in some national surveys, Mr. Trump has generally led in the U.S.C./LAT poll. He held the lead for a full month until Wednesday, when Hillary Clinton took a nominal lead.

          Our Trump-supporting friend in Illinois is a surprisingly big part of the reason. In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.
          Info is in the link. An interesting note is that he has not responded since Oct 4th and that is one reason the result has swung back towards Mrs Clinton.
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • #6
            Clinton will surely be disappointed to not be further ahead given the savaging Trump has had from the media.

            If it is a close run in, will the prospect of a prison sentence shred her nerves? Only the toughest of characters could debate and campaign in public under that pressure.

            Sure there is much to dislike in the character and history of both of them, but Trump is a remarkably resilient personality and Clinton will be too if she comes through a close campaign.
            Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
              Clinton will surely be disappointed to not be further ahead given the savaging Trump has had from the media.

              If it is a close run in, will the prospect of a prison sentence shred her nerves? Only the toughest of characters could debate and campaign in public under that pressure.

              Sure there is much to dislike in the character and history of both of them, but Trump is a remarkably resilient personality and Clinton will be too if she comes through a close campaign.
              She can be pretty confident she wouldn't go to prison, considering the FBI statement before. If anything it is just another reason to win - and the polls are either ties, or in her favor. All she has to do is maintain the status quo. So avoiding some unforeseen meltdown or another email shock, she can afford to take a breath.

              Comment


              • #8
                I only saw it once but I think it was Yahoo news ran a piece a few days ago that Clintons people are afraid that they are putting Trump so far behind that they are afraid a lot of democratic voters will stay home........and could lose that way......

                Comment


                • #9
                  Good thread idea!

                  Very surprised to see the latest Rasmussen poll (taken after the tapegate controversy and last debate) has Trump with a 2 point lead.

                  Is it an outlier?

                  The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%

                  More at: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...se_watch_oct13
                  Philip
                  "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."— Bertrand Russell

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    RCP - Thursday, October 13
                    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 45, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 3 Clinton +7
                    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 49, Trump 41 Clinton +8
                    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 41, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Trump +2
                    • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 44 Tie


                    However, at this point some of the major swing-states are more important than just the general polls. From today's RCP polls:

                    Ohio
                    • Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 41, Trump 42, Johnson 9, Stein 4 Trump +1
                    • Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Emerson Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +2


                    North Carolina:
                    • North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 9 Clinton +4
                    • North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson Suffolk Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 5 Clinton +2
                    • North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson Emerson* Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 5 Clinton +4


                    Florida is also one to watch, though the latest poll was yesterday, and showed a +3 for Clinton, which is within the margin of error.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      The L.A. Times poll has been a consistent outlier for a long time, going against all the other polls in favor of Trump - to the point where I no longer consider their polls valid.

                      Surprised about this latest Rasmussen poll outlier, though. I had thought their polls were considered reputable/scientific.

                      Not so?

                      Philip
                      "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."— Bertrand Russell

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by PhilipLaos View Post
                        The L.A. Times poll has been a consistent outlier for a long time, going against all the other polls in favor of Trump - to the point where I no longer consider their polls valid.

                        Surprised about this latest Rasmussen poll outlier, though. I had thought their polls were considered reputable/scientific.

                        Not so?

                        Philip
                        When all of their polls are compared to the actual outcome Rasmussan has about a +2% lean to the GOP.

                        Here is a link to the Fivethirtyeight.com website that rates the various polling companies.

                        http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

                        Click on the header for 'name' and it will sort by company.
                        “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                        “To talk of many things:
                        Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                        Of cabbages—and kings—
                        And why the sea is boiling hot—
                        And whether pigs have wings.”
                        ― Lewis Carroll

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                          RCP - Thursday, October 13
                          • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 45, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 3 Clinton +7
                          • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 49, Trump 41 Clinton +8
                          • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 41, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Trump +2
                          • General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 44 Tie


                          However, at this point some of the major swing-states are more important than just the general polls. From today's RCP polls:

                          Ohio
                          • Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 41, Trump 42, Johnson 9, Stein 4 Trump +1
                          • Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Emerson Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +2


                          North Carolina:
                          • North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 9 Clinton +4
                          • North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson Suffolk Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 5 Clinton +2
                          • North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson Emerson* Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 5 Clinton +4


                          Florida is also one to watch, though the latest poll was yesterday, and showed a +3 for Clinton, which is within the margin of error.
                          The free paper (Metro) I get on at the Train Station on the way to work ran a headline about Trump raping a child of twelve. When fringe rags like this are mainlining on Trump hate for a non- US market, I do wonder if we have hit 'peak hate' for Trump. If there anything else the media can throw at him worse than we have had already? And yet his numbers are holding up, he still has a chance.
                          Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
                            The free paper (Metro) I get on at the Train Station on the way to work ran a headline about Trump raping a child of twelve. When fringe rags like this are mainlining on Trump hate for a non- US market, I do wonder if we have hit 'peak hate' for Trump. If there anything else the media can throw at him worse than we have had already? And yet his numbers are holding up, he still has a chance.
                            The incident in question is the subject of a law suit which will be heard in early December. It isn't being reported in 'the media' in the US except for a handful of websites, so 'the media' is self-censoring on this. Why?

                            As for 'his numbers', they are awful. I'm afraid the white nationalist uprising you are desperate for isn't going ot happen.
                            Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              OK, some polling numbers from battleground states. Not my own work, but borrowed from a guy I'm acquainted with who is a stats nut & a US politics nut - a bit like Doc, but he gets the final results correct.

                              One of the fascinating results here is Utah, where Trump is so on the nose with Mormon voters that Clinton or even local by McMullin might take the state!

                              Enjoy:

                              In Ohio, a Baldwin-Wallace poll came in showing Clinton at +10 in a 2-way and +9 in a 3-way. Clinton's aggregate in Ohio climbed from +1.88 to +3.18, a jump of 1.30 points and right around President Obama's end-polling statistic from 2008.

                              In Florida, an Opinion Savvy poll came out showing Clinton up on Trump by +2.8 in a three-way match, which shifted the aggregate 0.8 points in her direction, from +2.11 to +2.91, far above the end-polling statistic for 2012.

                              In Nevada, a PPP (D) poll came out showing Clinton with the same +4 lead over Trump as the Ipsos/Reuters poll from the day before, thus bumping her aggregate up by 0.57 points, from +2.48 to +3.05. This is UNDER President Obama's end-polling-statistic from 2012.

                              In Wisconsin, a Marquette University poll came out showing Clinton +7 in a 3-way and +4 in a 2-way against Trump, bumping up Clinton's aggregate 0.9 points, from +5.69 to +6.59. Marquette is pretty much one of two gold-standard polls for Wisconsin; however, it has a slight mathematical bias to the Left, based on it's past performance. It's final poll predicted Obama +8 in 2012, he won by +7, so the poll was off 1 point to the Left. A one point variance, however, is considered slight.


                              In non-Battleground polling, the shock poll of the day came out of Utah, where Y2 Analytics shows a tie between Clinton and Trump (26/26) and Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who is from Utah and who is also a Mormon, is at 22, while Johnson is at 14. So, it is essentially a three-way tie in the most Conservative state in the nation. Utah is traditionally an R+40 state.

                              And as mentioned above, in Maine, an MPRC poll came in showing Clinton up by 8.7 in a 2-way and by 7.9 in a 3-way, but these numbers are considerably less than the +13 or so from UPI and Reuters, so the margin aggregate shrank considerably. Still, +10.78 is a hefty landslide margin. What is important to note is that the poll also polled by CD and in ME-02, Trump is up by +1, so the real possibility exists that, regardless of national outcome, that Maine may split it's electors this time around.
                              Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

                              Comment

                              Latest Topics

                              Collapse

                              Working...
                              X