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Next main line poll taken after Fridays bombshell....and the result is:

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  • Combat Engineer
    replied
    Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
    That's quite a spread, from crushing Clinton victory to narrow Trump win. The numbers do suggest that Clinton is opening up a proper lead, though I still think we will get a better result for Trump than the polls suggest and it will be very close, either way.
    Could be a secret 'block' not showing up in the polls, however as I said earlier we've had around 50 contested that were all polled and when the contest was over the hidden support does not simply show up.

    Leave a comment:


  • Escape2Victory
    replied
    Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
    RCP average Oct 11th.
    • NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Clinton +14
    • Economist/YouGov Clinton +5
    • LA Times/USC Tracking Trump +2
    • The Atlantic/PRRI Clinton +11
    • NBC News/SM Clinton +7
    • Quinnipiac Clinton +6
    • FOX News Clinton +4
    • Reuters/Ipsos Clinton +7
    That's quite a spread, from crushing Clinton victory to narrow Trump win. The numbers do suggest that Clinton is opening up a proper lead, though I still think we will get a better result for Trump than the polls suggest and it will be very close, either way.

    Leave a comment:


  • T. A. Gardner
    replied
    Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
    IF it was in violation. The Constitution and the laws that have come after it give the Executive that right, or am I wrong?
    The use of executive orders to make law was something never intended by the Founders. Yet, it is becoming the choice of Presidents in lieu of working with Congress. The problem with a President operating that way is they have near zero transparency. They are in essence a dictator acting as one.

    For example, Obama regularly ignored legislative timelines, as in implementing Obamacare. Whoever gets elected is going to get hit with the employer mandates of that monstrosity shortly after taking office. It's likely to absolutely tank the next President's first year in office all on its own. Couple implementing those with about 20 to 30% of the US having no plan available in 2018 whatsoever, but millions facing huge tax penalties for not having health insurance they can't buy or afford, and it's going to leave whoever is President in a very bad place.

    Obama did that one all on his own with executive orders. The war on coal and Gorebal Warming is all being done with executive orders. It'll be decades before the courts get finished fighting that out.
    The US is really doomed as a nation if what we become is one where the President rules by fiat and the courts decide every issue.

    Leave a comment:


  • Half Pint John
    replied
    Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
    I meant, and you know it, that I think she'll actually try and run a dictatorship of sorts. I think with a Republican Congress (assuming that's the case) she'll immediately turn to executive orders and double down on what Obama was doing with them... That is, legislate as the executive, make law out of whole cloth in violation of the Constitution. Her Supreme Court pick will be one that will side with her doing this meaning a 5-4 vote many times in her favor.
    IF it was in violation. The Constitution and the laws that have come after it give the Executive that right, or am I wrong?

    Leave a comment:


  • T. A. Gardner
    replied
    Originally posted by Michele View Post
    Clinton is Hitler?

    Are you sure you are not overstating your case a little bit?
    I meant, and you know it, that I think she'll actually try and run a dictatorship of sorts. I think with a Republican Congress (assuming that's the case) she'll immediately turn to executive orders and double down on what Obama was doing with them... That is, legislate as the executive, make law out of whole cloth in violation of the Constitution. Her Supreme Court pick will be one that will side with her doing this meaning a 5-4 vote many times in her favor.

    Leave a comment:


  • Combat Engineer
    replied
    Trump continues to double, triple and quadriple down.

    Latest ad features the "Hillary Stumple"

    Does he thing this will help him? The man has checked out. Its all about the Trump Rage now.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...n-9-11-stumble

    After listing crises in the world, the spot cuts to footage of Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, falling while walking up stairs, coughing during her 11-hour testimony to the House Benghazi Committee, and stumbling as she was led into her van outside of the 9/11 event.
    "Hillary Clinton failed every single time as secretary of State. Now she wants to be president," a narrator says over the footage.

    "Hillary Clinton doesn't have the fortitude, strength or stamina to lead in our world. Don’t let her fail us again."

    Leave a comment:


  • Combat Engineer
    replied
    Originally posted by ljadw View Post
    The latest NYT poll gives 45/40 for Clinton, but ,and this is very important ,

    The Atlantic and LA polls must be eliminated, because they asked people the wrong question = a question about 2 candidates and there are 4 important candidates: there is no election between Clinton and Trump,but between Clinton, Trump, Johnson and Stein .

    For the other 6 polls + the NYT poll, we don't know what was the question and thus they must also be eliminated .

    Thus, until more information, we know nothing .


    And I almost forget an other point : how many % of the people who were questioned said that Hillary would win by 14, 5, 2,etc % ? If 50 % predicted a Democratic victory by 14 % and 60 % a Democratic victory by 4 % (Fox poll ), what is the value of those polls ? Which of one is more important ?

    The same can be said of the sample that was used : if 500 people are saying that Hillary is leading by 11 % and 499 are disagreeing (we don't know their opinion) and in a second poll,1200 people are saying that Hillary is leading by 4 % and 800 disagree(we don't know their opinion ),what is the conclusion ? By how much is Hillary leading ?
    Lots of lack of understanding here..... Oh well, see yah on Nov 9th and you can explain the results to us all.

    Leave a comment:


  • ljadw
    replied
    Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
    RCP average Oct 11th.
    • NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Clinton +14
    • Economist/YouGov Clinton +5
    • LA Times/USC Tracking Trump +2
    • The Atlantic/PRRI Clinton +11
    • NBC News/SM Clinton +7
    • Quinnipiac Clinton +6
    • FOX News Clinton +4
    • Reuters/Ipsos Clinton +7
    The latest NYT poll gives 45/40 for Clinton, but ,and this is very important ,

    The Atlantic and LA polls must be eliminated, because they asked people the wrong question = a question about 2 candidates and there are 4 important candidates: there is no election between Clinton and Trump,but between Clinton, Trump, Johnson and Stein .

    For the other 6 polls + the NYT poll, we don't know what was the question and thus they must also be eliminated .

    Thus, until more information, we know nothing .


    And I almost forget an other point : how many % of the people who were questioned said that Hillary would win by 14, 5, 2,etc % ? If 50 % predicted a Democratic victory by 14 % and 60 % a Democratic victory by 4 % (Fox poll ), what is the value of those polls ? Which of one is more important ?

    The same can be said of the sample that was used : if 500 people are saying that Hillary is leading by 11 % and 499 are disagreeing (we don't know their opinion) and in a second poll,1200 people are saying that Hillary is leading by 4 % and 800 disagree(we don't know their opinion ),what is the conclusion ? By how much is Hillary leading ?
    Last edited by ljadw; 11 Oct 16, 11:39.

    Leave a comment:


  • ljadw
    replied
    Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
    You need to look at ALL of them. LA/USC is the only one showing any Trump lead at all. When I see 8-1 or 9-1 I tend to think the 1 is the outlier.

    Oh, by the way another major poll released today show Mrs Clinton with a +11% lead. 50% of the respondents were contacted after the Friday release of the groping tape.

    No : if more polls predict victory of Clinton than polls predicting victory of Trump, that will not mean that the former are more accurate than the latter .

    Besides, the NBC poll questioned some 500 people, the LA/USC poll questioned some 2500 people .

    In 1970 most polls in Britain predicted a Labour victory at the elections and only a few a Tory win ;the result was that the conservatives won .

    Leave a comment:


  • ljadw
    replied
    Originally posted by Michele View Post
    Clinton is Hitler?

    Are you sure you are not overstating your case a little bit?

    Someone who want to take the children from their parents and give them to the community (the Volksgemeinschaft ) is not better than Hitler; someone who wants to abolish the First Amendment (and we have already three examples ) is not better than Hitler .

    Leave a comment:


  • Combat Engineer
    replied
    Originally posted by BorderRuffian View Post
    Both of those polls before the "bombshell" had Clinton by 3. So she's had only a 2-3 point bump from the current "scandal."
    Sure, and? Right now the RCP average is now in the 5-6.5% range. One month too go and many more polls to be released that have not covered the time period of the tape and the debate. Do you honestly thing he's going to improve? If so based on what? Stop focusing on trying to rebut one poll and look at the over trend for the last two weeks.

    Look what he's doing this week? Not one thing that will help him. Fact is that he has been doing and is planning on doing more of what many here and on the hard right media have called for years for the GOP candidate to do. Go all out, attack the Dems attack Clinton etc. It's proving to be an utter failure. What will be the excuse Nov 9th? Media and the GOP elite most likely. Setting up for another failure to run an actual Republican again in 2020.

    Leave a comment:


  • BorderRuffian
    replied
    Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
    Which is fine. No poll is going to match. Simple fact is that the Trump campaign is in serious trouble...
    Both of those polls before the "bombshell" had Clinton by 3. So she's had only a 2-3 point bump from the current "scandal."

    Leave a comment:


  • Combat Engineer
    replied
    Originally posted by BorderRuffian View Post
    Other polls taken after the "bombshell" have Clinton leading by 6 and 5. Both have a much larger sampling than that NBC poll.
    Which is fine. No poll is going to match. Simple fact is that the Trump campaign is in serious trouble.

    Today he's out campaigning against the GOP, not the Dems.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...an-feud-229588

    Donald Trump escalated his attacks Tuesday on House Speaker Paul Ryan and other Republicans for not supporting him, tweeting that they’re holding back his campaign after a relatively successful debate performance Sunday night.
    Desite [sic] winning the second debate in a landslide (every poll), it is hard to do well when Paul Ryan and others give zero support!” Trump wrote on Twitter Tuesday morning, one day after Ryan (R-Wis.) told House Republicans that he would not campaign with and no longer defend the GOP nominee.
    "Our very weak and ineffective leader, Paul Ryan, had a bad conference call where his members went wild at his disloyalty," Trump wrote in a subsequent post about an hour later.
    The man is either an idiot and flunked basic Statistics course during his college years or just lies to his followers when it comes to the idiotic claims of winning the post debate polling.

    Leave a comment:


  • BorderRuffian
    replied
    Other polls taken after the "bombshell" have Clinton leading by 6 and 5. Both have a much larger sampling than that NBC poll.

    Leave a comment:


  • Combat Engineer
    replied
    Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
    Have you heard of the Electoral College? My vote only makes a difference in the Presidential race as it effects the outcome for Arizona voting in the Electoral College. If the vote in Arizona will not be close I am free to vote for whoever I want. If it is close them I will vote for the candidate most likely to stop Hillary Clinton from obtaining office. If that's Trump, then I will vote for Trump.

    I for one, do not want a Castro, Chavez, Mugabe, Stalin, Hitler, or other insane dictatorial @$$wipe in power... And, that is exactly what Hillary is. Only an utter moron or the most ill-informed, unthinking fool could vote Hillary in.
    "Lock Her UP!!!!!!".....

    Leave a comment:

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