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Presidential Race: The 3:00 moment.. what is it???

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  • #16
    Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
    The Libertarian Party always looks good on paper. Gary Johnson will probably blow away all Libertarian election records this year. He will probably more than double their previous record popular vote percentage.

    He's kind of like Marv Throneberry... The best player on the '62 Mets...
    Mr Johnson is about as gaffe prone as Trump if you account for scale. He thought process does not scare me but he is not a good campaigner.

    For Libertarian is all about keep them automatically on the ballot in Missouri. A party must get so much % of the vote or spend count less hours and a hunk of change getting on the ballot for the next general election.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
      Sorry Doc, your theory that if something does not effect a poll it is irrelevant is rather silly. It goes to the heart of a candidates fitness to office in this case. Which is the most important question of the day. I made no mention of any polls what so ever in the OP because that is not the issue.
      Assuming the polls are reasonably accurate, their movement in response to events tells us how relevant those events are to the election.

      Originally posted by Combat Engineer
      RCP average is slow to put up polls and skips some entirely. Easy way no is to go the the 538 election map and use the forcast map to select a state and view the list of polls near the bottom of the page that opens up.
      RCP is also a two-week or so average. 538's forecast is based on a probability distribution from a model. The "polls plus" forecast for Florida is basically tied right now. Out of 10,000 model runs, Her Hagness won 5,060 times and Trump won 4,940 times.

      Apart from her +4 lead in the Mason-Dixon poll (which has a +3.9 Clinton house effect according to 538) almost all of the recent polls are +/- 2 points either way.

      Originally posted by Combat Engineer
      Do so gives us several new polls. PPP has one that survey 6 battle ground states after the debate:

      http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...ates_92916.pdf
      PPP is a Democrat pollster.
      New Public Policy Polling surveys in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund, find Hillary Clinton leading in each state.


      VoteVets Action Fund's Board of Advisers includes only two names I recognize Wesley Clark and Lawrence Wilkerson. I know Clark is a Clintonista. VoteVets Action fund supports Democrat veterans running for office.

      That said...

      Her Hagness' lead in Florida and North Carolina in this poll is within the margin of error.

      Her Hagness' lead in Pennsylvania and Virginia is about the same as it was before the debate.

      None of these will have much effect on the RCP average.

      Only Colorado jumps out as anomalous. This will move the RCP average over to Her Hagness.

      PPP's most recent pre-debate surveys had Clinton up by 4-6 in Pennsylvania & Virginia, Trump up by 2 in Florida and North Carolina and no previous PPP poll for Colorado. The only clear shift was in Florida and North Carolina and it was within the margin of error.

      Just checking Florida, the PPP survey way over-sampled Democrats and under-sampled Republicans and independents relative to the 2012 exit polls.

      Originally posted by Combat Engineer
      You complained about the modules that pollsters were using in 212 also. You were wrong then. Now? Who knows, don't discount any of them.
      When a pollster's sample is 53% Democrat and/or over-samples Democrat-leaning demographic groups, there is plenty of reason to point it out.

      Originally posted by Combat Engineer
      Trump had a good 3 week thing going on. He stayed on track and kept relatively focused. The Clinton Campaign baited him, he took it hook line and sinker. By next week he stands to be down a good 4-5 points is my bet. You can afford that in late July or Early August, not so much in the first week of October.
      If that was the case, the LAT/USC poll would have detected movement in that direction.
      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
        Some crisis in the world or here at home????

        Nope, just the GOP nominee sending tweets out about a former Miss Universe telling his followers to:



        Yes the GOP candidate is asking his follows, at 0330 in the morning, to check out a 'sex tape' on the internet.....

        The man is incapable of NOT letting himself be baited into doing exactly what he needs NOT to do....

        My favorite part is his surrogates trying to make hay about how the Clinton campaign set him up with all the pre done interviews etc. OF COURSE SHE SET HIM UP!!!! That was the PLAN!

        And of course he fell for it and he's about to lose another week of the campaign ranting and raving and doing nothing more that demonstrating why the undecideds should not vote for him.

        http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...w-benghazi-lie

        Gingrich:
        Here's another interesting twist;
        Asked About Murder Connection, Hillary-Supporter Miss Universe Machado Says 'I'm Not a Saint Girl'
        EXCERPT:
        ...
        During an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper Tuesday night, the anchor asked Machado whether, as reports show, she had once participated in a murder and if she had threatened to kill a judge:

        “There are reports that Trump surrogates tonight have been referencing and pointing to on CNN and elsewhere about an incident in 1998 in Venezuela, where you were accused of driving a getaway car from a murder scene. You were never charged with this.”

        “The judge in the case also said you threatened to kill him after he indicted your boyfriend for the attempted murder. I just want to give you a chance to address these reports that the Trump surrogates are talking about."

        In 1998 the Associate Press reported the incident. Ultimately, Machado was not indicted because of insufficient evidence.

        The judge said there were no witnesses to place Machado at the scene, but neither could anyone verify her claim that she was home sick at the time of the murder.
        ...
        “He can say whatever he wants to say, I don’t care,” Machado responded to Cooper:

        “You know, I have my past. Of course, everybody has a past. I’m not a saint girl. But that is not the point now.”

        Machado said those reports were “speculation," because she was a very famous actress in her country. Referring to Trump, she added:

        "He can use whatever he wants to use. The point is, that happened 20 years ago. ...
        ...
        http://ijr.com/2016/09/703139-alicia...m_medium=owned

        Former Miss Universe Alicia Machado Has a Dark Past Including Sex Tapes & Allegedly Abetting Murder
        http://ijr.com/2016/09/703416-former...etting-murder/

        When Former Miss Universe Details Trump's 'Abuse', Megyn Kelly Brings Up an Awkward 1997 Interview
        http://ijr.com/2016/09/702752-when-f...997-interview/

        So a "not a saint" background, possible criminal past and past associations with criminals, etc., but much of that is "in the past", up to 20 years ago, and now she's a changed, better person we should assign credibility to ???

        Meanwhile "the Donald" isn't given credit for change better or worse, over the past 20 years and is still as bad as alleged to be back then???

        No double standards here, right?

        No grasping at distant straws or distractions from the issues of here and now ...

        Comment


        • #19
          So, now show where the official charging and trial was? Oh, wait, there never where any, zero, none.

          And next lets say all true, now how does that explain away Trumps CURRENT idiotic actions, the actual point of the thread. As far as I know she made it all up, immaterial. Changes nothing about Trumps actions, temperament and how easy it will be to manipulate him once in office.
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
            So, now show where the official charging and trial was? Oh, wait, there never where any, zero, none.

            And next lets say all true, now how does that explain away Trumps CURRENT idiotic actions, the actual point of the thread. As far as I know she made it all up, immaterial. Changes nothing about Trumps actions, temperament and how easy it will be to manipulate him once in office.
            Trump's 0400 Tweets were in response to Her Hagness' desperate attacks on Trump's supposed insensitivity to women.

            The fact that she spent a couple of decades enabling her husband to sexually harass women who worked for him, including possible incidents of sexual assault and rape, makes this entire subject so surreal, that it calls for an expansion of the definition of surreal. Of course, this may explain why it took her staff 6 hours to research a response to Trump's Tweet.

            However, you do get a consolation prize: Her Hagness got another margin of error bounce in the Fox News poll. If I have the time and patience next week, I will explain the relevance of the Nyquist principle as it applies to the LAT/USC poll relative to less densely sampled surveys.
            Last edited by The Doctor; 30 Sep 16, 19:17.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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