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  • Originally posted by Michele View Post
    I've waited a few days, so that a number of polls would be in after the date of the debate.

    RealClear Politics gave, the day before the debate, a +2.3% average over the recent polls in favor of Clinton.

    The average today is +3.8% in favor of Clinton, and that average covers the period from today back to 9/22 - i.e., it still includes some polls from before the debate.

    And the polls that were taken only after the debate or from the day of the debate and on, show (most recent first):

    Clinton +6%
    Clinton +6%
    Clinton +5%
    Trump +4%
    Clinton +6%
    Clinton +5%
    Clinton +4%
    Tie.

    So it seems that after the debate ("after" not necessarily meaning "because of") Clinton is faring better and better.

    Let's wait to compare that +2.3% average from the day before the debate, with an average of polls taken exclusively after the debate. It will take a few days more.

    Unless there are polls that go against the current trend, the slight improvement of +3.8% (a +1.5% since the day before the debate) shown today will probably have inched higher.
    But but but I thought it was just a lie by communists that Trump didn't demolish the hated Hildabeast!

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
      But but but I thought it was just a lie by communists that Trump didn't demolish the hated Hildabeast!
      Trump is getting to the point he where he is in real trouble as time runs out. With 5 weeks he can close a 3-4 point gap, a 5-6 gap? Going to be difficult.
      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
      “To talk of many things:
      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
      Of cabbages—and kings—
      And why the sea is boiling hot—
      And whether pigs have wings.”
      ― Lewis Carroll

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
        Trump is getting to the point he where he is in real trouble as time runs out. With 5 weeks he can close a 3-4 point gap, a 5-6 gap? Going to be difficult.
        Which goes back to just why Trump lost the debate - he needed a better performance. Since the debate he's been on the defensive, from taxes to another bout of "veteran bashing", he's been forced on the back foot.

        Trump needs a way to redefine the narrative to gain ground. Though possible low-turnout on the Dem side is still a worry to consider.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
          Which goes back to just why Trump lost the debate - he needed a better performance. Since the debate he's been on the defensive, from taxes to another bout of "veteran bashing", he's been forced on the back foot.

          Trump needs a way to redefine the narrative to gain ground. Though possible low-turnout on the Dem side is still a worry to consider.
          Low turn out is a Dem fear, however Trump is lagging in the very area the Romney did well in, white voters.

          http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-white-voters/

          Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.

          But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.1 He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
            Trump is getting to the point he where he is in real trouble as time runs out. With 5 weeks he can close a 3-4 point gap, a 5-6 gap? Going to be difficult.
            I do think the polls will prove surprisingly inaccurate in this election, a poor guide at close % points. If I were Clinton I would want 9-10 points to start to feel comfortable.

            I think people are starting to 'count their chickens before they have hatched'.
            Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
              I do think the polls will prove surprisingly inaccurate in this election, a poor guide at close % points. If I were Clinton I would want 9-10 points to start to feel comfortable.

              I think people are starting to 'count their chickens before they have hatched'.
              Who would not what that kind of a lead. However would you rather be 3-5 up like Clinton or 3-5 down like Trump?

              Don't buy into "the polls messed up the primaries". They accurately predicted his wins in about 95% of the primaries. Nothing special about Trump being in this race and making the polls less accurate.
              “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
              “To talk of many things:
              Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
              Of cabbages—and kings—
              And why the sea is boiling hot—
              And whether pigs have wings.”
              ― Lewis Carroll

              Comment


              • Some are looking for excuses.
                "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
                  I do think the polls will prove surprisingly inaccurate in this election, a poor guide at close % points. If I were Clinton I would want 9-10 points to start to feel comfortable.

                  I think people are starting to 'count their chickens before they have hatched'.
                  Except that basing them on quantifiable data with a demonstrated track record is far-removed from random guessing. We know that bookies can be wrong, yet they can still make a profit because that's the exception.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                    Except that basing them on quantifiable data with a demonstrated track record is far-removed from random guessing. We know that bookies can be wrong, yet they can still make a profit because that's the exception.
                    You create a false premise. It is not about random guessing. Trump has attacked multiculturalism. This is forbidden and not socially acceptable behaviour. People will be less comfortable stating a preference for him outside the privacy of the polling booth.

                    I'd give him about 5% on top of what the polls say.

                    Pollsters got the UK election and the Brexit wrong and do not have the accurate record you suggest. They will be the same professional pollster types who do your polls and make similar mistakes.
                    Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
                      You create a false premise. It is not about random guessing. Trump has attacked multiculturalism. This is forbidden and not socially acceptable behaviour. People will be less comfortable stating a preference for him outside the privacy of the polling booth.

                      I'd give him about 5% on top of what the polls say.

                      Pollsters got the UK election and the Brexit wrong and do not have the accurate record you suggest. They will be the same professional pollster types who do your polls and make similar mistakes.
                      The random guessing was for the counting chickens before they hatch, which only works as a metaphor if one concludes that the estimates for successful hatches is entirely random and unpredictable. If one can accurately predict the number of successful hatches from eggs regularly, then counting your chicks before they hatch is an intelligent and justified action.

                      The same goes with politics. While there is always room for an upset in a single poll/event, it is a rare for the majority of polls showing lasting trends to all be wrong. When they are wrong, it usually goes back to methodology issues which are then corrected for by the surviving polls.

                      Again, we know bookies can be wrong on a game, but if they were wrong routinely they'd be out of a job.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                        The random guessing was for the counting chickens before they hatch, which only works as a metaphor if one concludes that the estimates for successful hatches is entirely random and unpredictable. If one can accurately predict the number of successful hatches from eggs regularly, then counting your chicks before they hatch is an intelligent and justified action.

                        The same goes with politics. While there is always room for an upset in a single poll/event, it is a rare for the majority of polls showing lasting trends to all be wrong. When they are wrong, it usually goes back to methodology issues which are then corrected for by the surviving polls.

                        Again, we know bookies can be wrong on a game, but if they were wrong routinely they'd be out of a job.
                        The eggs have been counted and there is some gleeful hand rubbing on the basis the eggs add up to +5 for Clinton. The eggs have not hatched though and the Chicken laying them has made some shockingly bad decisions in declaring the egg hatch count in recent batches.

                        The chicken is clucking bad and needs to re-earn credibility.
                        Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
                          The eggs have been counted and there is some gleeful hand rubbing on the basis the eggs add up to +5 for Clinton. The eggs have not hatched though and the Chicken laying them has made some shockingly bad decisions in declaring the egg hatch count in recent batches.

                          The chicken is clucking bad and needs to re-earn credibility.
                          Have they? I'm interested in which elections have been universally misreported by the body of polling data in recent years - and then we could always compare those to more accurate results to see just how inaccurate the body of polling data has been.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                            Have they? I'm interested in which elections have been universally misreported by the body of polling data in recent years - and then we could always compare those to more accurate results to see just how inaccurate the body of polling data has been.
                            The Brexit polls were generally predicting a narrow win for Remain that went the other way. The UK election polls consistently predicted a hung parliament but the Tories won a majority. And these were tame themes compared to what Trump has unleashed.

                            The Financial Times is showing the last poll had Leave losing with 46%, yet it won with 52%.

                            https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
                            Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
                              The Brexit polls were generally predicting a narrow win for Remain that went the other way. The UK election polls consistently predicted a hung parliament but the Tories won a majority. And these were tame themes compared to what Trump has unleashed.
                              The narrow part is the important one - and one also needs to look at how far back the data goes. American elections (for better or worse) are monumentally bloated and long-lasting events with years of widely published polls backed up by pre-election data and other quantifiable information. Generally speaking, the big upsets in polling data (Truman, anyone?) is down to severely flawed methodology.

                              One might also just have to point to British polls and study their methodology to see the root cause of those flaws - or if the results were still within the margin of error.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
                                The Brexit polls were generally predicting a narrow win for Remain that went the other way. The UK election polls consistently predicted a hung parliament but the Tories won a majority. And these were tame themes compared to what Trump has unleashed.

                                The Financial Times is showing the last poll had Leave losing with 46%, yet it won with 52%.

                                https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
                                The Brexit results were well within the margin of error of the polls. They were were on target, that is why there are margins of error.

                                Once again, the polls were 90+% on concerning everyone one of Trumps primary races. When they were actually "wrong" it was usually in the other direction, Trump under performed.
                                “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                                “To talk of many things:
                                Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                                Of cabbages—and kings—
                                And why the sea is boiling hot—
                                And whether pigs have wings.”
                                ― Lewis Carroll

                                Comment

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