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  • If the election were held today...

    If the election were held today, it would be very close, but Clinton wins with 272 electoral votes to Trump's 266.

    BUT... that's based on the most recent opinion polls, taken before Clinton's recent problems.

    If Trump, instead of (currently) Clinton can win any one of the following five battleground states: MI, PA, WI, VA or NH...

    ... then Trump wins.


    Philip
    Last edited by PhilipLaos; 14 Sep 16, 12:14.
    "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."— Bertrand Russell

  • #2
    Depends on who's figures you're using. Could you give us that source for those electoral numbers?

    RCP has as it's "no toss up" count:

    Clinton...311
    Trump....227

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._toss_ups.html

    538 has it 304 to 233

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
      Depends on who's figures you're using. Could you give us that source for those electoral numbers?

      RCP has as it's "no toss up" count:

      Clinton...311
      Trump....227

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._toss_ups.html

      538 has it 304 to 233

      http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo
      I used the RCP interactive (make your own) map and gave each of the 14 toss up states to the candidate leading in the most recent polls.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ident_map.html
      "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."— Bertrand Russell

      Comment


      • #4
        Election is not until November, and a lot can happen in that time to either candidate.

        Insanity is endemic to Americans.
        Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

        Comment


        • #5
          The difference between my map and RCP's 'no toss up map' is that I give Ohio and North Carolina to Trump, whereas RCP gives them to Clinton.

          That's based on my reading of the latest polls. It takes 33 electoral votes from Clinton and gives them to Trump.


          Philip
          "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."— Bertrand Russell

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by PhilipLaos View Post
            The difference between my map and RCP's 'no toss up map' is that I give Ohio and North Carolina to Trump, whereas RCP gives them to Clinton.

            That's based on my reading of the latest polls. It takes 33 electoral votes from Clinton and gives them to Trump.


            Philip
            Got it thanks.
            “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
            “To talk of many things:
            Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
            Of cabbages—and kings—
            And why the sea is boiling hot—
            And whether pigs have wings.”
            ― Lewis Carroll

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by PhilipLaos View Post
              If the election were held today, it would be very close, but Clinton wins with 272 electoral votes to Trump's 266.

              BUT... that's based on the most recent opinion polls, taken before Clinton's recent problems.

              If Trump, instead of (currently) Clinton can win any one of the following five battleground states: MI, PA, WI, VA or NH...

              ... then Trump wins.


              Philip
              If the election were held today, most voters would be surprised...

              The way things have trended this month, this election could come down to New Hampshire and Maine's 2nd congressional district.
              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

              Comment


              • #8
                If the election is held...

                Comment


                • #9
                  According to the newest polls on RCP, Ohio, Florida, Georgia and Iowa have all moved out of the Clinton camp and would vote for Trump if the election were held today.

                  That's a swing of 69 electoral college votes.


                  Philip
                  "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."— Bertrand Russell

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by PhilipLaos View Post
                    According to the newest polls on RCP, Ohio, Florida, Georgia and Iowa have all moved out of the Clinton camp and would vote for Trump if the election were held today.

                    That's a swing of 69 electoral college votes.


                    Philip
                    And it's just the beginning. Trump was "sandbagging"... He was lowering expectations of his capacity to be a serious candidate.

                    Over the past month or so, he has toned down the bombast and positioned himself squarely in the center-right.

                    Her Hagness on the other hand, had to move far to the left and cheat to beat a 74-yr old Communist. With the never-ending revelations about her illegal and irresponsible actions as Secretary of State and the obvious evidence that she is physically and mentally incapable of doing much of anything, she has almost no path to winning the middle.

                    Right now, the election is Trump's to lose.
                    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                      And it's just the beginning. Trump was "sandbagging"... He was lowering expectations of his capacity to be a serious candidate.

                      Over the past month or so, he has toned down the bombast and positioned himself squarely in the center-right.

                      Her Hagness on the other hand, had to move far to the left and cheat to beat a 74-yr old Communist. With the never-ending revelations about her illegal and irresponsible actions as Secretary of State and the obvious evidence that she is physically and mentally incapable of doing much of anything, she has almost no path to winning the middle.

                      Right now, the election is Trump's to lose.
                      Now that is a funny post. All the way around.
                      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                      “To talk of many things:
                      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                      Of cabbages—and kings—
                      And why the sea is boiling hot—
                      And whether pigs have wings.”
                      ― Lewis Carroll

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                        Now that is a funny post. All the way around.
                        Proof that the sandbagging worked as planned.

                        Last edited by The Doctor; 15 Sep 16, 06:40.
                        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                          Proof that the sandbagging worked as planned.
                          Sandbagging?? Flip flopping fits much better.
                          "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                          Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                          you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                            Sandbagging?? Flip flopping fits much better.
                            More proof that the subject of the Art of the Deal knows how to sandbag.

                            Trump has something Romney didn't have: Momentum going into the debates...
                            What looked a couple of weeks ago like a long wall of states in which Trump needed to overcome a long-standing Clinton lead has gotten shorter. This is most dramatically shown in the state-by-state projections from Daily Kos (a pro-Democratic but, if anything, rather impressively pessimistic outlet), which now gives Trump an advantage not only in the previously red but blue-trending states of Arizona and Georgia, but also in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio. Add all that up with the states everyone expects Trump to carry and he’s at 259 electoral votes.

                            http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...very-real.html

                            Trump is also leading in Maine's 2nd Congressional District. This puts him at 260. He is closing in polling averages in New Hampshire and Nevada, where Senate races are helping him. He has a 2 point lead in the most recent Nevada poll. Nevada and New Hampshire would put him at 270. Her Hagness' leads in Virginia and Pennsylvania have shrunk and these States are once again battlegrounds.

                            Since Hillary's fainting spell on 9/11,Trump has surged to a 6 point lead in the USC/LA TIMES daily tracking poll. When he kicks her @$$ in Monday night's debate, his momentum will increase and he is unlikely to shift to a prevent defense as Romney did.

                            The cool thing about sandbagging, is that in the public's eye, he can kick her @$$ just by not being an idiot.

                            All that said, Trump is still capable of losing; but he is well-positioned to win going into the debates.
                            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                              ...Election is not until November, and a lot can happen in that time to either candidate...
                              Bingo.

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