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  • "Doubts Start Creeping In for Democrats"

    Her Hagness is currently basking in what looks like a decent convention bounce in the polls, but apparently "party veterans" are not so confident...
    Doubts Start Creeping In for Democrats
    Outwardly confident about their numbers, party veterans admit that all bets may be off this year.


    By Jeff Greenfield
    August 01, 2016


    [...]

    Ask about Hillary Clinton’s prospects in November, you get a number—actually a lot of numbers. You get “2 percent every cycle,” a reference to the steady decrease in the clout of the white electorate. You get “the 6 percent spread,” from the 2012 exit poll finding that women were 53 percent of the electorate while men were 47 percent. You get “we’re up 200,000 in Florida!” That’s the margin by which Florida Hispanics register Democratic over Republican.

    As startling as it was for Democrats to watch Donald Trump emerge from the GOP convention more or less even in national polling with Hillary Clinton, the campaign professionals who had labored for decades returned again and again to one overriding proposition: The numbers show that there are more of us than there are of them. And they're right: That’s what the numbers say.

    But ask enough people close to the campaign, privately, and you hear something else: a note of worry. What if, in this one unusual year, past isn’t prologue? What if the patterns dont hold up?

    [...]


    The obvious concern for Democrats this year is that Hillary Clinton, a paid-in-full member of the white establishment, simply won't bring out the minority vote the way Obama did in both of his campaigns.

    [...]

    The obvious concern for Democrats this year is that Hillary Clinton, a paid-in-full member of the white establishment, simply won't bring out the minority vote the way Obama did in both of his campaigns.

    [...]

    Some of this uneasiness stems from what has already happened in the past year. Every assertion about Trump during the primary battle proved wrong: he’ll never run; he won’t file financial disclosures; he’ll be forced out by his own words; all those people at this rallies won’t actually turn out to vote; he has a ceiling; the party will coalesce around an alternative; the institutional wing of the party will never accede to his nomination. Perhaps most importantly, it was hard for many insiders to imagine that when voters were truly asked to fill in the bubble beside the name “Donald Trump” on a presidential ballot, they wouldn’t be jolted back to reality and vote for a real candidate.

    None of those things happened.


    [...]

    All through the primaries, Ted Cruz’s campaign was arguing that their data-analytics tool would be able to finally find the “missing millions” that conservatives have always dreamt of and get them out in places like central Pennsylvania in November. What if Trump can draw them out with his blisteringly effective strategy of tweets, rallies and free TV?

    This does not require a revolution. What it requires is enough white voters to get excited in the right states. Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, president of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies, framed the election outlook for Clinton in blunt terms: “If turnout is 70 percent white, I like her chances," he said. “If it’s 74 percent ... I'm very worried.”

    [...]

    If that’s what’s going on now—if voters find it empowering to upend the table, break the crockery and send every member of “the Establishment” running for cover—then all the turnout models of all the experts might be thrown into a cocked hat. It means we could continue to watch as the statements and actions that would destroy any other candidacy have little or no effect on Trump.

    [...]

    And it could explain why, after all the confident assertions that the numbers point to a Clinton victory, so many of those I spoke with echoed the words of the 40-year party warrior: “If Trump wins, it means everything I thought I knew about politics is wrong. It’s just that I’m a lot less sure about what I know than I was a year ago.”

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...#ixzz4GBBskjpq
    Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

    Turn out may be almost impossible to predict this year; although there is a general pattern in the polls which indicates that Trump has an enthusiasm advantage.

    The divergence between surveys of registered voters (RV) and likely voters remains large. Her Hagness currently leads The Donald 50-42 in the RV surveys in the RCP average. However, she only leads by 1 in the LV surveys, 43-42.




    This is a very bizarre election year.
    Attached Files
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

  • #2
    It's been an unpredictable year, it's prudent to be cautious.

    538. June 30th Trump up by a smidge in Polls only prediction. Now, well lets say not so much.

    We'll see where it's at about a week from now, ten days out from close of Dem convention. Until then it is too volatile.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
      It's been an unpredictable year, it's prudent to be cautious.

      538. June 30th Trump up by a smidge in Polls only prediction. Now, well lets say not so much.

      We'll see where it's at about a week from now, ten days out from close of Dem convention. Until then it is too volatile.
      I think it will be near the end of August before the volatility settles down... if it settles down.

      ~10% of the electorate seems to be bouncing back and forth like a ping pong ball.

      Trump is trying to take advantage of this:



      While Clinton has to be the candidate of the status quo and change at the same time.
      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

      Comment


      • #4
        My concern centers around the Donald's consistent self-inflicted wounds lulling the electorate into believing that he can't possibly be elected and thereby staying home.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Gorque View Post
          My concern centers around the Donald's consistent self-inflicted wounds lulling the electorate into believing that he can't possibly be elected and thereby staying home.
          I wouldn't discount this notion.

          I sometimes think he is puling some sort of a Sun Tzu maneuver...

          If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

          http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjack.../#6215d5bb3496
          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
            I wouldn't discount this notion.

            I sometimes think he is puling some sort of a Sun Tzu maneuver...

            If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

            http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjack.../#6215d5bb3496
            Either that or;
            1) He got further along than he ever expected and is now looking for a way to "gracefully" lose the election ...
            OR
            2) He's a plant of the DNP intended to unravel the GOP and assure they would have no other contender and allow Her Hagness to be the next Queen.

            Comment

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