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Trump's Convention Bounce: At least +3-4%... and rising.

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  • Trump's Convention Bounce: At least +3-4%... and rising.




    CNN has the bounce at +6%... The largest post-convention bounce since at least 2000...
    Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

    There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

    [...]

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politi...oll/index.html

    In light of the resignation of the DNC chair on the eve of Her Hagness' convention and the FBI's damning non-indictment... Will she even have a post-convention bounce?

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  • #2
    More rising...



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    • #4
      Rising right into the stratosphere in 538's "Nowcast"...


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      • #5


        The bounce will last a couple of weeks at best!
        Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

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        • #6
          Very interesting that his numbers went up after promoting a lot of leftist ideals at the RNC. If it wasn't for immigration and guns I'd say he's closer to the left than Hillary actually is. Weird times.

          I think he has somewhat fixed his stance on Muslim immigration, which has helped his numbers. Now, he must correct the huge gaffs he made in regards to military strategy if he's to have any shot at winning. The question then is whether or not people will believe him.
          "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
          - Benjamin Franklin

          The new right wing: hate Muslims, preaches tolerance for Nazis.

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          • #7
            Couple of points

            1) I wrote some time ago that an uptick in violence would help Trump. There have been two big radical Islam hits, plus the attack on the police. If this continues, so will the boost to Trump's rating.

            2) in the US as in the UK, the Left have done such a brilliant job of demonising the right, that people under play their political views if they are rightwing. This means polls underestimate the support of the more Rightwing candidate. I therefore believe a few % points can be added to the polls to give a truer figure of what Trump's underlying support.
            Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

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            • #8
              Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
              Couple of points

              1) I wrote some time ago that an uptick in violence would help Trump. There have been two big radical Islam hits, plus the attack on the police. If this continues, so will the boost to Trump's rating.

              2) in the US as in the UK, the Left have done such a brilliant job of demonising the right, that people under play their political views if they are rightwing. This means polls underestimate the support of the more Rightwing candidate. I therefore believe a few % points can be added to the polls to give a truer figure of what Trump's underlying support.
              3) A significant number of survey respondents are probably too embarrassed to say they will vote for Trump...
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              • #9
                Wonder if any of his university students are voting for him?

                Schnackenberg, who worked in Trump’s office at 40 Wall Street, testified that “while Trump University claimed it wanted to help consumers make money in real estate, in fact Trump University was only interested in selling every person the most expensive seminars they possibly could.” The affidavit concludes, “Based upon my personal experience and employment, I believe that Trump University was a fraudulent scheme, and that it preyed upon the elderly and uneducated to separate them from their money.”
                "Ask not what your country can do for you"

                Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

                you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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                • #10
                  Trump's bounce appears to have peaked. The only current daily tracking poll, LA Times/USC, had the candidates tied at the start of the GOP convention. Trump appear to have peaked at +7. Her Hagness' bounce is just appearing.

                  When the bounces settle down, this poll will probably revert to nearly even. It might leave Trump slightly ahead. The sampling interval of this poll enables it to detect higher frequency fluctuations in the polls. It will also demonstrate higher amplitude swings due to its higher resolution. The results are smoothed with a trailing 7-day average. The resolution doesn't make this poll more accurate than other polls. It just enables it to detect shorter duration movements.
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                  • #11
                    Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                    Trump's bounce appears to have peaked. The only current daily tracking poll, LA Times/USC, had the candidates tied at the start of the GOP convention. Trump appear to have peaked at +7. Her Hagness' bounce is just appearing.

                    When the bounces settle down, this poll will probably revert to nearly even. It might leave Trump slightly ahead. The sampling interval of this poll enables it to detect higher frequency fluctuations in the polls. It will also demonstrate higher amplitude swings due to its higher resolution. The results are smoothed with a trailing 7-day average. The resolution doesn't make this poll more accurate than other polls. It just enables it to detect shorter duration movements.
                    Doc,

                    Care to revisit those predictions?

                    I'm not great at posting graphics, but the 538 predictions have shifted rather dramatically (except the 'polls plus, which never gave Trump better than 40%). 'Polls only' have Clinton out to 68%, while the 'Now-cast' has her at 86%. I'm going to bet that when this 'settles' Clinton will be at least as far ahead as she was before the Conventions, probably more.

                    Trump is doing his damnedest to solidify Hillary's bounce and lose the election. At this point the best chance for you guys is a blonde Australian rapist who is colluding with a Russian dictator. Strange days.
                    Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

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                    • #12
                      Originally posted by BF69 View Post
                      Doc,

                      Care to revisit those predictions?

                      I'm not great at posting graphics, but the 538 predictions have shifted rather dramatically (except the 'polls plus, which never gave Trump better than 40%). 'Polls only' have Clinton out to 68%, while the 'Now-cast' has her at 86%. I'm going to bet that when this 'settles' Clinton will be at least as far ahead as she was before the Conventions, probably more.

                      Trump is doing his damnedest to solidify Hillary's bounce and lose the election. At this point the best chance for you guys is a blonde Australian rapist who is colluding with a Russian dictator. Strange days.
                      She got a decent bounce. It might grow a bit by the end of the week. Then it will fade. It looks like Trump will be about where he was, if not slightly closer, after the convention dust settles.

                      My point was that Trump supposedly wouldn't get a bounce from the dysfunctional GOP convention. If you read some of Nate Silver's posts, he was kind of surprised and received some criticism due to his models becoming so bullish on Trump.

                      Right now, Trump is in a far better position than Romney was 4 years ago... Can he successfully play this hand down the home stretch? I have no idea.

                      If I get time this week, I'll post some screen caps of 538's maps. The thing to keep in mind about 538, is that these are probability distributions... 67% is just "likely."
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