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US oil reserves surpass those of Saudi Arabia and Russia

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  • The Exorcist
    replied
    What does it matter? The EnviroMental-cases won't allow it to be pumped, and if they fail to block it they will prevent oil pipelines from being built AND prevent oil from being shipped by rail.
    Just as they are doing in Oregon.

    It just isn't saaaaafe, don't you know?

    Leave a comment:


  • Mountain Man
    replied
    Pure Bull Swat...

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
    Looks like we'll need to get your word out to MSN.com;
    The U.S. now has the largest oil reserves in the world
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/marke...bJl?li=BBnb4R7
    I can't fix the media's ignorance.

    If a publicly traded company used Rystad's methods to report reserves, they would go to prison. Rystad is pushing a consulting service, not auditing reserves.
    Reserves

    According to the Society of Petroleum Engineers, reserves are "those quantities of petroleum claimed to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations under defined conditions." Well, that clears things up, right? No? Well, to clarify, the SPE says petroleum quantities must fit four criteria to be classified as reserves. They must be (1) discovered through one or more exploratory wells, (2) recoverable using existing technology, (3) commercially viable, and finally (4) remaining in the ground. Sound okay? Good, because it gets more tricky from there. There are currently three classifications for reserves: proved, probably and possible. Here's how they break down:
    Proved reserves
    are those with a "reasonable certainty" (a minimum 90% confidence) of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions. We can discussed the differences between proved developed, proved undeveloped, etc. with a later post. However, it should be pointed out that proved reserves are the only reserves recognized by the U.S. SEC. This is why energy companies strive to get the latest technology and recovery methods recognized by the government, therefore increasing the chance of "reasonably" recovering oil and gas assets and therefore raising their reserves as well.

    Probable reserves
    are petroleum and gas quantities with a 50% confidence level of recovery. Basically, you may be able to get some, you may not.

    Possible reserves
    are quantities with a minimum 10% certainty of being produced. Basically, your long shot discoveries. Only gamble on these types of assets if your Magic 8-Ball tells you to. All right! That takes care of reserves! But what about resources?

    Resources

    For those of you who have looked at on the market ads, you'll spot this term a lot in the literature. So what is resources? Again, we turn to the SPE. There are two categories of resources: contingent and prospective. are quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but the projects are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. In other words, there's a good idea of how much oil and gas is in the reservoir, but issues such as political and social events or even a lack of market prevent production. There can be a major oil discovery in the Congo right now. You want to risk getting shot to get to it? are quantities of petroleum estimated to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. These sorts of resources basically exist in the minds of marketing people. That's not to say that they don't exist in the real world as well, it just means that E&Ps are thinking of future oil and gas discoveries in new areas, based on upcoming technology and the discoveries made in similar formations worldwide. Okay! I hope that helps! Until next time, may the resource be with you. Live long and prospect.

    http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/ste...s-vs-resources

    Rystad is lumping reserves (proved, probable and possible), resources (contingent and prospective) and resource potential into its own definition of reserves.
    Last edited by The Doctor; 05 Jul 16, 17:58.

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  • G David Bock
    replied
    Looks like we'll need to get your word out to MSN.com;
    The U.S. now has the largest oil reserves in the world
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/marke...bJl?li=BBnb4R7

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
    Am I reading/understanding this right?
    400 billion looks like more than 264bn(billion).
    The Rystad Energy report is adding its estimate of undiscovered resources to its reserve estimate.

    Somehow, they came up with 264 billion barrels of proved, probable, possible and potential reserves (resource potential).

    1P = Proved Reserves (>90% probability = actual valuation)
    2P = Proved + Probable (>50% probability)
    2PC (3P) = Proved + Probable + Possible (>10% probability)
    2PCX = Proved + Probable + Possible + Undiscovered (not reserves)



    Probable reserves (2P) can be used for certain accounting measures; however they are not proved reserves. Possible reserves (3P) cannot be used for any accounting measures. Undiscovered resources aren't reserves.

    Most estimates of undiscovered resource potential in the United States (onshore + offshore) are in the range of 400 billion barrels. If you count oil shales (different from shale oil) you can push the number up to 1.4 trillion barrels.

    This study commits the same error, just in the opposite direction, as Maobama did when he babbled about the US having only 2% of the world's proved reserves. Our proved reserves are subject to very strict accounting rules. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, etc. are not bound by the same rules, unless they have publicly traded entities in the US. So. it is meaningless to try to gauge our remaining resource potential by comparing our reserves to other nations.

    Reserves are not potential. Reserves are what has been found and can be produced under certain economic and technical scenarios.

    The US has huge potential for future oil and gas discoveries, probably far greater than Saudi Arabia or Russia. However, those future discoveries aren't reserves.

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  • G David Bock
    replied
    Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
    It's more likely that the FT doesn't know the difference between reserves and resources...
    Rystad Energy estimates recoverable oil in the US from existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered areas amounts to 264bn barrels.

    "Undiscovered areas" aren't "reserves" or any kind: proved, probable or possible. Undiscovered technically recoverable oil is "resource potential."

    This number is probably closer to 400 billion barrels.
    Am I reading/understanding this right?
    400 billion looks like more than 264bn(billion).

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    While the distinction between reserves and resources may seem like nitpicking, the misuse of the word "reserves" is frequently used by people like Dear Leader Chairman Maobama to give the impression that US petroleum "resources" are scarce...
    “The United States holds only 2% of the planet’s proven oil reserves,”
    -- President Barack Obama

    According to President Obama, the United States contains only 2 percent of the planet’s proven oil reserves, Of course, he’s right — to a point. In classic fashion, he’s using a technicality to skirt the facts and keep the myth of energy scarcity alive. The reality is that the U.S. has enough recoverable oil for the next 200 years, despite only having 2 percent of the world’s current proven oil reserves.

    Proven oil reserves are not all of our oil resources—not even close. In fact, proved reserves represent a tiny portion of our total oil resources. Proven (or proved) oil reserves are reserves that have already been discovered, typically through actual exploration or drilling, and which can be recovered economically. That estimate does not include oil that we know about, yet are unable to access because of regulatory barriers. For example, the billions of barrels of oil in ANWR are not included in our proved oil reserves. So let’s look at the facts.

    Currently, the United States has 1,442 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, but only about 20 billion barrels are considered proven oil reserves.[ii] That is partly because the federal government is denying access to hundreds of millions of acres oil-rich federal lands: the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, the Naval Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, federal waters off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, at least 45 percent of the Gulf of Mexico, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and oil shale on federal lands in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, to name a few. In the case of oil shale (an oil composed of kerogen), technology needs to be perfected to make its production viable, but this will not happen until the land is leased. Regrettably, the Department of Interior has stopped a leasing program Congress directed it to undertake.

    [...]

    http://instituteforenergyresearch.or...reserves-myth/

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  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by Chukka View Post
    Foodstuff doc, love the details.
    I have to spend waaaaayyyy too much time documenting proved reserves to SEC standards...

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  • Chukka
    replied
    Good stuff doc, love the details.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
    It's more likely that the FT doesn't know the difference between reserves and resources...
    Rystad Energy estimates recoverable oil in the US from existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered areas amounts to 264bn barrels.

    "Undiscovered areas" aren't "reserves" or any kind: proved, probable or possible. Undiscovered technically recoverable oil is "resource potential."

    This number is probably closer to 400 billion barrels.
    It's actually Rystad Energy that doesn't know the difference...
    UNITED STATES NOW HOLDS MORE OIL RESERVES THAN SAUDI ARABIA

    July 04, 2016

    By Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis, Rystad Energy

    A new independent estimate of world oil reserves has been released by Rystad Energy, showing that the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data.

    The new reserves data from Rystad Energy also distinguishes between reserves in existing fields, in new projects and potential reserves in recent discoveries and even in yet undiscovered fields.

    [...]

    http://www.rystadenergy.com/NewsEven...n-saudi-arabia

    "Yet undiscovered fields" aren't reserves.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
    US oil reserves surpass those of Saudi Arabia and Russia
    EXCERPT:
    The US holds more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia and Russia, the first time it has surpassed those held by the world’s biggest exporting nations, according to a new study.

    Rystad Energy estimates recoverable oil in the US from existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered areas amounts to 264bn barrels. The figure surpasses Saudi Arabia’s 212bn and Russia’s 256bn in reserves.

    The analysis of 60,000 fields worldwide, conducted over a three-year period by the Oslo-based group, shows total global oil reserves at 2.1tn barrels. This is 70 times the current production rate of about 30bn barrels of crude oil a year, Rystad Energy said on Monday.
    ...
    https://next.ft.com/content/7525f1dc...6-0712b3873ae1
    It's more likely that the FT doesn't know the difference between reserves and resources...
    Rystad Energy estimates recoverable oil in the US from existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered areas amounts to 264bn barrels.

    "Undiscovered areas" aren't "reserves" or any kind: proved, probable or possible. Undiscovered technically recoverable oil is "resource potential."

    This number is probably closer to 400 billion barrels.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by Salinator View Post
    So does that mean that the huge bulk of recoverable reserves is not considered economically feasible at this point in time?
    Or it's not physically proved in a wellbore. Publicly traded US oil companies have to "book" proved reserves according to very strict SEC rules. Here's a very simplistic example...

    In this scenario, a well is drilled up-dip to a dry hole with an oil show. The entire volume can be booked as proved because the down-dip well has an oil-water contact...



    In this scenario, the down-dip well has no oil show, just wet sandstone. If the oil well was drilled on the basis of a seismic hydrocarbon indicator, the volume down-dip of the lowest known oil has to be booked as probable...




    When the production from the well exceeds the original booked volume, the operator can increase the proved reserves on the basis of cumulative oil production vs. water cut or pressure decline, depending on the drive mechanism.

    The resource potential in the United States is huge. The only obstacles to converting the resource potential into proved reserves and, more importantly, production are the US gov't and Green****s... However, proved reserves have a specific definition for a reason.

    Leave a comment:


  • Salinator
    replied
    Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
    It's the volume of oil proved (90% probability) in existing producible wellbores and economically recoverable under current economic conditions.

    It has a very specific legal definition.
    So does that mean that the huge bulk of recoverable reserves is not considered economically feasible at this point in time?

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by Salinator View Post
    Doc, what exactly is "proved"? Can it actually be proven until it is actually sucked out of the ground?

    In the words of our Russian members: where is proofs?
    It's the volume of oil proved (90% probability) in existing producible wellbores and economically recoverable under current economic conditions.

    It has a very specific legal definition.

    Leave a comment:


  • The Doctor
    replied
    Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
    Found this at Drudge and looks like the link only works thru their page, so more "excerpt" here;
    ....
    Recoverable reserves — those barrels that are technologically and economically feasible to extract — are analysed by the energy industry to determine company valuations and the long-term health of an oil-producing nation’s economy.

    Conventional oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, have traditionally used their huge resource riches to wield power globally, particularly among big consumer countries such as the US.

    This relationship has been disrupted in recent years by hydraulic fracturing and other new technologies that have helped the US unlock vast reserves and enabled it to become more energy independent.

    “There is little potential for future surprises in many other countries, but in the US there is,” said Per Magnus Nysveen, analyst at Rystad Energy, noting recent discoveries in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, which is the nation’s most prolific oil producing area. “Three years ago the US was behind Russia, Canada and Saudi Arabia.”

    More than half of the US’s remaining oil reserves are in unconventional shale oil, Rystad Energy data show. Texas alone holds more than 60bn barrels of shale oil.

    Other global oil reserves data, like the closely watched BP Statistical Review that is based on official reporting from national authorities, show the US still ranks behind countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, Iraq, Venezuela and Kuwait.
    ....
    https://next.ft.com/content/7525f1dc...6-0712b3873ae1

    Some of the imbedded links in the article/exceprts;
    http://www.rystadenergy.com/NewsEven...n-saudi-arabia

    http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf...ull-report.pdf
    The 60 billion barrels are not "proved reserves."

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