Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

White House Watch: Trump 43%, Clinton 39%

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • White House Watch: Trump 43%, Clinton 39%

    This week it is Trump, last week Clinton....next week...who knows..

    The tables have turned in this week’s White House Watch. After trailing Hillary Clinton by five points for the prior two weeks, Donald Trump has now taken a four-point lead.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...te_house_watch
    "I don't discuss sitting presidents," Mattis tells NPR in an interview. "I believe that you owe a period of quiet."

  • #2
    Too fracking funny for words...

    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

    Comment


    • #3
      I am not going to worry about it until this fall. Both sides will roll out the big guns later in the campaign, and who knows what sort of events will erupt in the next few months. Hillary also has to worry about Bobo, Slick willie, and John Kerry shooting their mouths off and drenching her in the fallout.
      Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

      Comment


      • #4
        Rasmussen is the only one with Trump up.

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

        Of course national polls are meaningless and good state level polls are just starting or have not started yet.

        Like the last 50 years, 8-12 States will be the ones that determine the outcome. The rest, not a factor.
        “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
        “To talk of many things:
        Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
        Of cabbages—and kings—
        And why the sea is boiling hot—
        And whether pigs have wings.”
        ― Lewis Carroll

        Comment


        • #5
          Actually this one is even a better watch. Includes all four candidates that will be on 48+ state ballots.

          http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tein-5952.html

          General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
            Rasmussen is the only one with Trump up.

            http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

            Of course national polls are meaningless and good state level polls are just starting or have not started yet.

            Like the last 50 years, 8-12 States will be the ones that determine the outcome. The rest, not a factor.
            Nate Silver already has it 74-26 in Hillary's favor... http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...forecast/#plus
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
              Rasmussen is the only one with Trump up.

              http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

              Of course national polls are meaningless and good state level polls are just starting or have not started yet.

              Like the last 50 years, 8-12 States will be the ones that determine the outcome. The rest, not a factor.
              They might not be the same 8-12 States we have grown accustomed to.

              Quinnipiac has it "too close to call"...

              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

              Comment


              • #8
                I'd say eight years of Obama has raised the level of hatred and prejudice in the US. Of that we have ample proof.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                  They might not be the same 8-12 States we have grown accustomed to.

                  Quinnipiac has it "too close to call"...

                  A couple new additions on both sides, most will not pan out, but possible. Penn for the GOP is in play, Dems have a shot at AZ and possibly some others. We'll know more in mid September.
                  “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                  “To talk of many things:
                  Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                  Of cabbages—and kings—
                  And why the sea is boiling hot—
                  And whether pigs have wings.”
                  ― Lewis Carroll

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Nate Silvers ratings of Polling groups. Gives grade on 'quality' and what direction, Dem or GOP, they did not lean to.

                    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

                    Rasmussen gets a C+ and a +2 GOP leaning.
                    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                    “To talk of many things:
                    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                    Of cabbages—and kings—
                    And why the sea is boiling hot—
                    And whether pigs have wings.”
                    ― Lewis Carroll

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight began yesterday their prognostications on Trump’s chances of winning against Hillary.
                      The short answer is that 20 percent or 25 percent is a pretty reasonable estimate of Trump’s chances based on the polls and other empirical evidence. In fact, that’s quite close to where FiveThirtyEight’s statistical models, which are launching today, have the race. Our polls-only model has Trump with a 19 percent chance of beating Clinton as of early Wednesday afternoon. (The forecasts will continually update as new polls are added.) Our polls-plus model, which considers economic conditions along with the polls, is more optimistic about Trump, giving him a 26 percent chance.

                      Still, Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races. He needs to look back to 1988 for comfort, when George H.W. Bush overcame a similar deficit against Michael Dukakis to win. Our models are built from data since 1972, so the probabilities we list account for elections such as 1980, 1988 and 1992, when the polls swung fairly wildly, along with others, such as 2004 and 2012, where the polls were quite stable.
                      http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ing-president/

                      For those of you who don’t know FiveThirtyEight projected the winner in all 50 states in 2008 and in 2012 the site also predicted the winner of the election with remarkable accuracy.

                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

                      Will Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight be able to predict the 2016 Presidential Election with as much accuracy as he did in 2008 and 2012?

                      I am a big fan of his for a lot of his other predictions as well, so it will be interesting to see if he calls 2016 correctly.

                      Silver says that Missouri is in play also. That is hard to believe, I think if recall correctly from the article Nebraska is in play also, and I read that Hillary is doing some ad spending there because there is a particular area that will sometimes go blue in the elections.
                      Last edited by Jannie; 30 Jun 16, 14:55.
                      Homo homini lupus

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                        Nate Silvers ratings of Polling groups. Gives grade on 'quality' and what direction, Dem or GOP, they did not lean to.

                        http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

                        Rasmussen gets a C+ and a +2 GOP leaning.
                        Dem-leaning poll grades: 1 D, 5 C's...



                        Rep-leaning poll grades: 2 F's, 2 D's, 5 C's...



                        No bias there...
                        Attached Files
                        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Jannie View Post
                          Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight began yesterday their prognostications on Trump’s chances of winning against Hillary.


                          http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ing-president/

                          For those of you who don’t know FiveThirtyEight projected the winner in all 50 states in 2008 and in 2012 the site also predicted the winner of the election with remarkable accuracy.

                          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

                          Will Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight be able to predict the 2016 Presidential Election with as much accuracy as he did in 2008 and 2012?

                          I am a big fan of his for a lot of his other predictions as well, so it will be interesting to see if he calls 2016 correctly.

                          Silver says that Missouri is in play also. That is hard to believe, I think if recall correctly from the article Nebraska is in play also, and I read that Hillary is doing some ad spending there because there is a particular area that will sometimes go blue in the elections.
                          Already posted...
                          Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                          Nate Silver already has it 74-26 in Hillary's favor... http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...forecast/#plus

                          Also from Mr. Silver...
                          MAY 18, 2016 AT 7:01 AM

                          How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump

                          Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.


                          By Nate Silver

                          Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists — FiveThirtyEight included, twice over — about what they got wrong on Trump.

                          [...]

                          http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-donald-trump/
                          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                            Dem-leaning poll grades: 1 D, 5 C's...



                            Rep-leaning poll grades: 2 F's, 2 D's, 5 C's...



                            No bias there...
                            Hey, FoxNews is slightly Dem leaning and gets an A!
                            “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                            “To talk of many things:
                            Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                            Of cabbages—and kings—
                            And why the sea is boiling hot—
                            And whether pigs have wings.”
                            ― Lewis Carroll

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                              Hey, FoxNews is slightly Dem leaning and gets an A!
                              Go figure...
                              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                              Comment

                              Latest Topics

                              Collapse

                              Working...
                              X