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"Difference between Trump and Clinton as president: One million barrels of oil a day"

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  • "Difference between Trump and Clinton as president: One million barrels of oil a day"

    May 11, 2016

    U.S. oil production is bound for a significant shake up after the presidential election in November, says a senior editor at energy-information provider Platts.

    “This election is going to have a major impact on the direction of U.S. and, possibly, global oil supply. Maybe the most significant impact of any election in U.S. history,” said Brian Scheid, senior oil editor at Platts, at the Platts Crude Oil Summit in London on Tuesday.

    Looking at a worst case/best case scenario worked out between several analysts in Washington, he estimated that with a Republican win, U.S. oil production could jump by as much as 500,000 barrels a day. If the Democrats win, there could be a decline of 500,000 barrels a day, Scheid said.


    Hillary Clinton — pushed left by the movement behind her Democratic rival Bernie Sanders — has vowed to reduce American oil consumption by a third and is seen as possibly banning fracking on public land. She may also further push for efforts to combat climate change, Scheid said.

    “Overall, the biggest concern for the U.S. oil industry is how Clinton will deal with fracking,” he said.


    “Who wins in November may dictate if the U.S. shale renaissance peaked last year or if this year has been a dip ahead of a new high,” he said.

    U.S. oil production peaked in April last year at 9.6 million barrels a day, but has since declined in response to lower oil prices and cuts in capital expenditures. The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates that domestic production will fall to around 8 million barrels a day by the third quarter of next year.

    $50/bbl * 1,000,000 bbl/d = $50,000,000 per day, $18,250,000,000 per year...
    US election: one million barrels a day at stake

    23 May 2016 Taylor Heyman

    The primaries are almost over and the main event is soon upon us; the US presidential election. The candidates facing off are likely to be Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump, so what affect could the election have on the oil market?


    Speaking at the Platts Crude Oil summit earlier this month, Platts' senior editor of oil news, Brian Scheid claimed "the 2016 US presidential election has about 1million barrels per day riding on it", a decline of 500,000 barrels for a Democrat victor, and an increase of 500,000 for a Republican.

    This is a major figure to ride on one election - it is relative to the amount of oil produced by North Dakota each day - and could have far reaching consequences for the US economy.


    What if Trump were elected?

    He may have started off as a joke candidate, but commentators are now forced to take him seriously. He goes into the Republican convention virtually uncontested...


    Any new Republican president could scrap the Iran deal, effectively forcing Iran to limit its output. Trump has certainly expressed this sentiment.


    At home, Scheid says Trump could scale back Obama's policies to cut climate change, including regulation on methane emissions from oil and gas wells and limiting areas where offshore drilling can be based. "When a Republican comes into office, they'd likely gut all of that," says Scheid. "The cost, the burden of federal regulations on oil and gas drilling, that could go away overnight."

    These changes would lower the cost of production for US producers, and could boost production of oil, both on and offshore.


    What if Clinton were elected?


    As former Secretary of State in Obama's government, it is easy to assume she will continue in the same vein, limiting offshore drilling and cutting emissions. Scheid says it is likely Clinton will extend Obama's current ban on offshore drilling in the Atlantic from five years to 10 or 15, as well as shutting down drilling offshore of Alaska.

    According to Scheid, Hilary Clinton has an "overall plan where she wants to reduce US oil consumption by 1/3 within a decade." He says this means if she is elected, fracking on public lands could be banned. It would only have a small effect on the market, as public land only make up 5% of the US land mass, but it would be a symbolic gesture that the government was looking for alternatives to oil and gas.

    Other policies of Obama's which could be pushed further are limits to methane emissions extending to all wells, rather than just new ones, and the implementation of a $10 a barrel tax on oil - a policy Obama tried to bring to life this year, but failed. With the momentum a new president possesses, Clinton could pass this legislation in her first year as president.

    Croft said the Iran deal is safer with Clinton than with Trump, but not as safe as it is with Obama...

    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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