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"Assessing Trump’s Path to 1,237"

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  • "Assessing Trump’s Path to 1,237"

    This was inconceivable a couple of months ago...
    Assessing Trump’s Path to 1,237
    A look at the remaining contests shows how he could get there


    Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato's Crystal Ball March 24th, 2016

    About a month ago, after Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary and all of its delegates, we headlined a piece “The Hour is Growing Late to Stop Trump.” Well, the hour has grown later, and we have to ask the question: Has Trump been stopped?

    Certainly not. And a look ahead at the remaining contests calls into question the ability of the other candidates, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, to prevent him from winning the requisite number of delegates to clinch or come close to clinching the Republican nomination.

    The magic number is 1,237 delegates, and our own rough calculations show Trump just getting over the hump with 1,239. But that involves Trump winning the lion’s share of the delegates in places as diverse as Wisconsin, New York, Indiana, West Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Table 1 shows these projections, which represent our best guess as to the state of the race right now.

    [...]

    We realize that this is primarily a math game: Trump either gets to 1,237, or he doesn’t, and in the latter instance either the contest is resolved in the six weeks between the end of the primaries and the opening of the convention, or it goes all the way to the convention and perhaps to multiple ballots, something that hasn’t happened in most people’s lifetimes (1948 saw the GOP’s last multi-ballot convention). But it’s not entirely a math game. It’s also a perception game.

    If Trump finishes, say, less than 100 delegates short, but he is still comfortably leading national polls of Republicans and wins statewide victories in places like California and New Jersey on the final day of voting (June 7), it’s hard to see how, practically, he wouldn’t be the nominee. Trump would have far more delegates than his rivals, and he would also be heading into the pre-convention period with major statewide victories. Only if Trump finishes 100 or more delegates short does the contested convention become a more prominent possibility. As we’ve previously stressed, there are a small number of unpledged delegates as well as delegates from other candidates that Trump may or may not able to win over in the interim from June 7 through the opening of the convention on July 18.

    We are starting to get the distinct sense that many Republicans, including some in leadership, may not have the stomach to fight Trump all the way to the convention. As some Republicans put it to us earlier this week, they prefer the Twitter hashtag #NeverClinton rather than #NeverTrump. In other words, they’d rather the party unify behind Trump than allow Hillary Clinton to be president. Rallying behind the polarizing Trump may very well deliver the White House to Clinton anyway, though, and there is a real possibility that a credible third-party anti-Trump Republican will emerge at some point.

    [...]

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...-path-to-1237/

    Five Thirty Eight has Trump just about on track to nail down 1237 delegates by the end of the primaries... Un-fracking-believable.
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

  • #2
    He is a good salesman. And people are fed up with the same-old same-old.

    I'm firmly I the 'Not Hillary' camp. She will unite the GOP behind anyone.
    Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

    Comment


    • #3
      Fivethrityeight has a good tracking chart showing a candidates path to the magic number and the current progress to that goal.

      http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...s/republicans/

      Currently Trump is not meeting that goal by a small amount. Of course no one else is close. Trump is at 96% of being on target.

      One thing for sure, for the first time in a long time it looks like it will come down to the last Primary Day, which includes the massive California chunk,
      before we know if he makes it.

      CA GOP primary is not a winner take all. It's proportional using a formula with the % of state total and also awards the winners of the individual federal congressional districts etc.
      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
      “To talk of many things:
      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
      Of cabbages—and kings—
      And why the sea is boiling hot—
      And whether pigs have wings.”
      ― Lewis Carroll

      Comment


      • #4
        Even if there is a contested convention, according to Politico the majority of GOP voters (54 per cent) think the party should coalesce around Trump rather than Cruz, Kasich, or any other candidate. By this point it's become obvious that the Cruz campaign's effort to unite the party around himself simply isn't working, despite the best efforts of the 'establishment' (the fact that Jeb Bush just endorsed Cruz should amply demonstrate just how desperate they've become).

        http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-g...e-trump-221144
        Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
          Even if there is a contested convention, according to Politico the majority of GOP voters (54 per cent) think the party should coalesce around Trump rather than Cruz, Kasich, or any other candidate. By this point it's become obvious that the Cruz campaign's effort to unite the party around himself simply isn't working, despite the best efforts of the 'establishment' (the fact that Jeb Bush just endorsed Cruz should amply demonstrate just how desperate they've become).

          http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-g...e-trump-221144
          That's because many in the establishment think Cruz would be far worse than Trump. Kasich seems like many people's second choice, but his lack of success has left him a lame option.

          If this goes down to a convention, I expect a lot of hand wringing and nose holding in the GOP... and what that means for the future of the party is going to be interesting.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
            I'm firmly I the 'Not Hillary' camp. She will unite the GOP behind anyone.
            That's what I told a polling company today. They asked "Who would you most likely vote for President?" I replied, "Anyone other than Hillary Clinton."

            I don't think polling companies are completely ready for that response. I get the impression that answer is taken as not Trump rather than what it really is: Hillary Clinton is an albatross and a big grunch of people are going to vote against her out of disgust for her than vote for Trump or someone else per se.

            Comment


            • #7
              Here's what I like about Trump:

              1) Blowhard he is, but he's also a breath of fresh air in a race full of professional politicians.

              2) He's got big business contacts, but what other candidate doesn't. What he doesn't have is a wealth of Washington insiders he's got to pander to.

              3) If Hillary wins and the Democrats control the House and Senate, then we re-enter Obama's first turn......and the ability to shove through things like Obamacare 2.0....or whatever other regulations she wants to enact or judges she wants to pick. If Trump wins, he's sort of tied to acting like he's got some sense. Unlike the other candidates he cannot rely on the party machine to work FOR him....he will HAVE to achieve consensus to get things done.

              4) Worst thing that happens if Trump is elected is he tries to go off the deep end, makes a lot of soundbytes, gets dishoned by the Republicans and is vilified by the Democrats, and accomplishes nothing. Nothing being the opposite of something bad. Best thing is that he brings a certain negotiating attitude (which Obama sorely lacks) to the table and actually creates some cross-aisle deals that benefit the country.

              5) His foreign policy is about the only one that hasn't 'tried and failed' in the last 50 years. Hillary is going to do a Bill redux, which wasn't awful but also wasn't great and got us into some pretty stupid crap in various hellholes. Hillary has a reputation of her foundation receiving large donations and her moving a certain way.......not saying she's accepting bribes, but in countries where bribes are commonplace that's exactly what she looks to be doing. Trump's plan could almost be called 'Fortress America', and seems to focus on not making incessant interventions, and reducing our commitments to countries that abuse us, but also keeping our global presence strong. Trump's foreign policy reminds me a lot of Jefferson, and we could do a lot worse than a Jeffersonian policy.

              6) His wife is hot.....and if I'm going to have to listen to someone drone on about eating healthy, it would help that she's not gaining weight all the time.
              Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

              Comment


              • #8
                Trump is really hard to like but if you vote for the guy you like you are living in a fantasy world. For me the only question is if he can beat Clinton and it is too late to really worry about that. If the Republicans have a brokered convention the Trump people will not vote in protest. Of course if Trump is the candidate a lot of conventional Republicans will vote third party so either way it is too late if defeating Clinton is your goal to do anything but Trump.
                We hunt the hunters

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                  That's because many in the establishment think Cruz would be far worse than Trump. Kasich seems like many people's second choice, but his lack of success has left him a lame option.

                  If this goes down to a convention, I expect a lot of hand wringing and nose holding in the GOP... and what that means for the future of the party is going to be interesting.
                  I think some of the polling coming out on House & Senate races is changing their mind. Cruz would be at least as big a disaster as POTUS candidate, but he won't wreak the same havoc down ticket. Unfortunately for the Establishment its decision to hold its nose & back Cruz will come too late. If Trump doesn't get the nod now it will be as big a disaster. Trump is driving a bulldozer through the GOP, the only question is how big and what sort of damage he does.
                  Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I wonder which historically president (or candidate) Trump most closely resembles. Any precedent for what he is doing? Any other presidents that were pure businessmen* with no political appointments before running?

                    Wonder if he will be Hoover mkII, good enough until a real crisis.
                    *yes I know it's debatable....
                    One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions - Admiral Grace Hopper

                    "The eunuch should not take pride in his chastity."
                    Wu Cheng'en Monkey

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      But even if he wins the delegate count, will the GOP still try to sabotage him and give the show away to Hillary?
                      Will they deliberately prove that the GOP is hopelessly corrupt and indeed hates the people that they want voting for them?

                      It is a possibility, but here are the odds-

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbmS...S3tOQ2uoGBaaxg

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
                        But even if he wins the delegate count, will the GOP still try to sabotage him and give the show away to Hillary?
                        Will they deliberately prove that the GOP is hopelessly corrupt and indeed hates the people that they want voting for them?

                        It is a possibility, but here are the odds-

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbmS...S3tOQ2uoGBaaxg
                        Not really.

                        The GOP brass take the long view. we're talking four years, eight at the max. The day after the primary the leadership starts spitballing about 2020.

                        Trump's not a favorite, but he has one supreme advantage: this is his first run as a GOP candidate. If he gets the Oval office and then goes nuts the party can simply point out that he really wasn't ever one of us. He does well, he's a Republican born and bred.

                        There's too much drama being assigned to the GOP's motivations. There's always another election coming. The top brass have been in politics since the late 70s (at least).

                        And unlike the Dems, they've given Trump full access to his share of the Party's assets.
                        Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by TacCovert4 View Post
                          Here's what I like about Trump:

                          1) Blowhard he is, but he's also a breath of fresh air in a race full of professional politicians.
                          If that's what you call "fresh air," I'd hate to see what you consider rancid.

                          Anyway, no one is more of a professional politician than Trump. He's saying whatever he thinks will get him elected. Nothing more.

                          Originally posted by TacCovert4 View Post
                          2) He's got big business contacts, but what other candidate doesn't. What he doesn't have is a wealth of Washington insiders he's got to pander to.
                          Trump is a total insider. He's been playing both sides of the political fence for years.

                          3) If Hillary wins ....
                          She's gonna massacre Trump.

                          4) Worst thing that happens if Trump is elected ...
                          Fear not.

                          5) His foreign policy is about the only one that hasn't 'tried and failed' in the last 50 years.
                          How has attacking everyone not been tried? Unless you consider alienating every foreign leader (except Putin) a foreign policy?

                          6) His wife is hot.....
                          And there you have it, ladies and gentlemen! I couldn't have come up with a more damning condemnation of Trump supporters myself.

                          Perfect!
                          "I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. I just kiss. I don't even wait. You can do anything... Grab them by the [redacted]. You can do anything."
                          -The President of the United States of America.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by armor11 View Post
                            How has attacking everyone not been tried? Unless you consider alienating every foreign leader (except Putin) a foreign policy?
                            Switch the Ayatollah Khamenie for Putin, and you have the results of the Obama Foreign Policy.

                            Trump has said nothing about "attacking everyone", that's fantasy-style propaganda... and exactly the same thing the Dems were saying about Reagan in 1980. Things turned out a little differently from that, didn't they?

                            You & yours have been doing your best to sell us on weepy-eyed and limp-wristed Mr. Rogers wannabees for decades, enough is enough.
                            As the P.O.W. said, looking down at his bowl of cold porridge; "we want something else!"

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