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March 15th Missouri GOP Primary: Trump or Cruz your vote

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
    I think you're quite right. Turnout is what will make or break this election, and the GOP are doing well there for both Trump and Cruz. However there are a number of Republicans/Conservatives who have claimed that Romney lost for "not being conservative enough", which is a common refrain when Republicans lose.

    It will be interesting to see if Trump loses whether they will repeat that message or not.
    Nah, it wasn't because he wasn't conservative enough is was because he lacked the cajones.
    Too Much To Do Too Little Time

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    • #17
      Donald Trump would lose the general election to Hillary Clinton very badly.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tial_race.html

      The only candidate more disliked with worse negatives than HRC is Trump. The only candidate who is possibly more corrupt than HRC is Trump.

      If Trump is the nominee Conservatives will stay home or vote Libertarian.

      Cruz beats Clinton in general election match ups, and will invigorate the base, something that has been lacking in 2008 & 2012.

      Cruz is the best debater the GOP has, and with ruin Clinton on the stage. Hillary has a lot of vulnerabilities and Cruz is the best person to prosecute her on them.
      A wild liberal appears! Conservative uses logical reasoning and empirical evidence! It's super effective! Wild liberal faints.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post
        Trump has quite a few negatives and not actually being conservative is only one of them.
        This is actually seems to be a strength. Conservatives are a minority.

        Missouri is an open primary so expect a lot of moderate independents to come out and vote.

        Tuebor

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
          I think you're quite right. Turnout is what will make or break this election, and the GOP are doing well there for both Trump and Cruz. However there are a number of Republicans/Conservatives who have claimed that Romney lost for "not being conservative enough", which is a common refrain when Republicans lose.

          It will be interesting to see if Trump loses whether they will repeat that message or not.
          Moderate GOP candidates have a bad record since 1976.
          • 1976 Ford, Moderate. Lost
          • 1980 Reagan, Conservative. Won in landslide.
          • 1984 Reagan, Conservative. Won in bigger landslide.
          • 1988 Bush-41, Moderate. Won.
          • 1992 Bush-41, Moderate. Lost.
          • 1996 Dole, Moderate/Conservative. Lost.
          • 2000 Bush-43, Moderate/Conservative. Won.
          • 2004 Bush-43, Moderate/Conservative. Won.
          • 2008 McCain, Moderate. Lost.
          • 2012 Romney, Moderate/Conservative. Lost.


          Reagan was the only genuinely conservative candidate between 1976 and 2012 and he won in landslides. He energized voters. Although, I don't necessarily think that it was Reagan's ideology that energized most of his voters. I think it was his optimism. He restored America's confidence in itself. Trump is kind of doing something similar.

          Cotton McKnight and Pepper Brooks sum up my reaction to Trump's success so far...

          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Destroyer25 View Post
            Donald Trump would lose the general election to Hillary Clinton very badly.

            http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tial_race.html

            The only candidate more disliked with worse negatives than HRC is Trump. The only candidate who is possibly more corrupt than HRC is Trump.

            If Trump is the nominee Conservatives will stay home or vote Libertarian.

            Cruz beats Clinton in general election match ups, and will invigorate the base, something that has been lacking in 2008 & 2012.

            Cruz is the best debater the GOP has, and with ruin Clinton on the stage. Hillary has a lot of vulnerabilities and Cruz is the best person to prosecute her on them.
            General election poll numbers do not mean much at this point in the race. Traditionally the top Democrat usually leads during the primary season, but fades in the general (when, by chance, the opposition is actually running adds against her/him).

            Conservatives never vote Libertarian as the latter are extremely socially liberal. If it looks like Hillary might win, Conservatives will come out and vote. Coincidentally, Trump is doing well with Conservatives as well as moderates, and his appeal is much broader than any other candidate. Personally I'd like to see the GOP voters wisen up and vote for my man John, but they simply are not going to.

            Your analysis also fails with regards to turnout. Turnout for the Republicans is far higher than the Democrats and way above what it was in the past two elections. This is also true with independents voting in the open primaries. Turnout is the key, and more people may hate Trump than Hillary, but they are not the one's turning out to vote.

            Tuebor

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            • #21
              Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
              Moderate GOP candidates have a bad record since 1976.
              • 1976 Ford, Moderate. Lost
              • 1980 Reagan, Conservative. Won in landslide.
              • 1984 Reagan, Conservative. Won in bigger landslide.
              • 1988 Bush-41, Moderate. Won.
              • 1992 Bush-41, Moderate. Lost.
              • 1996 Dole, Moderate/Conservative. Lost.
              • 2000 Bush-43, Moderate/Conservative. Won.
              • 2004 Bush-43, Moderate/Conservative. Won.
              • 2008 McCain, Moderate. Lost.
              • 2012 Romney, Moderate/Conservative. Lost.


              Reagan was the only genuinely conservative candidate between 1976 and 2012 and he won in landslides. He energized voters. Although, I don't necessarily think that it was Reagan's ideology that energized most of his voters. I think it was his optimism. He restored America's confidence in itself. Trump is kind of doing something similar.
              Ford lost because he pardoned Nixon, not because he was a "moderate" (if he even can be so considered). Reagan (was he really a "conservative--" modern Conservatives claim it, but does that really make it so) was up against Jimmy Carter who was going to lose even if a walrus ran against him.

              George H. W. Bush lost because there had already been 12 years of a Republican president, an insurrection from the Right, and this guy named Perot who took all the moderate votes away from him.

              Bob Dole a moderate? Are you serious? Come on Doc, you are better than this.

              Bush won, barely, because Gore was an idiot. He was re-elected because he was seen as competent (at that time), and Kerry was a bigger idiot than Gore.

              McCain lost because of Sara Palin, a p*** poor campaign, and having to battle the inertia of boom generation white guilt.

              Romney lost because of "47 %" and his hard right turn on immigration.

              Tuebor

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              • #22
                Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                Moderate GOP candidates have a bad record since 1976.
                • 1976 Ford, Moderate. Lost
                • 1980 Reagan, Conservative. Won in landslide.
                • 1984 Reagan, Conservative. Won in bigger landslide.
                • 1988 Bush-41, Moderate. Won.
                • 1992 Bush-41, Moderate. Lost.
                • 1996 Dole, Moderate/Conservative. Lost.
                • 2000 Bush-43, Moderate/Conservative. Won.
                • 2004 Bush-43, Moderate/Conservative. Won.
                • 2008 McCain, Moderate. Lost.
                • 2012 Romney, Moderate/Conservative. Lost.


                Reagan was the only genuinely conservative candidate between 1976 and 2012 and he won in landslides. He energized voters. Although, I don't necessarily think that it was Reagan's ideology that energized most of his voters. I think it was his optimism. He restored America's confidence in itself. Trump is kind of doing something similar.

                Cotton McKnight and Pepper Brooks sum up my reaction to Trump's success so far...

                But such a subjective use of the term moderate doesn't really explain or account for such fluctuations, not to mention the other documented political trends (such as backlashes against long reigning parties). When everyone but Reagan is classified as a moderate, it calls into question the definition of "moderate".

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Tuebor View Post
                  Ford lost because he pardoned Nixon, not because he was a "moderate" (if he even can be so considered). Reagan (was he really a "conservative--" modern Conservatives claim it, but does that really make it so) was up against Jimmy Carter who was going to lose even if a walrus ran against him.

                  George H. W. Bush lost because there had already been 12 years of a Republican president, an insurrection from the Right, and this guy named Perot who took all the moderate votes away from him.

                  Bob Dole a moderate? Are you serious? Come on Doc, you are better than this.

                  Bush won, barely, because Gore was an idiot. He was re-elected because he was seen as competent (at that time), and Kerry was a bigger idiot than Gore.

                  McCain lost because of Sara Palin, a p*** poor campaign, and having to battle the inertia of boom generation white guilt.

                  Romney lost because of "47 %" and his hard right turn on immigration.

                  Tuebor
                  McCain also lost because of the anti-GOP swell after 8 years of Bush.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Destroyer25 View Post
                    Donald Trump would lose the general election to Hillary Clinton very badly.

                    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tial_race.html

                    The only candidate more disliked with worse negatives than HRC is Trump. The only candidate who is possibly more corrupt than HRC is Trump.

                    If Trump is the nominee Conservatives will stay home or vote Libertarian.

                    Cruz beats Clinton in general election match ups, and will invigorate the base, something that has been lacking in 2008 & 2012.

                    Cruz is the best debater the GOP has, and with ruin Clinton on the stage. Hillary has a lot of vulnerabilities and Cruz is the best person to prosecute her on them.
                    Polls are snapshots. Trump has been steadily closing the gap...



                    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

                    Back in August, he was trailing by about 20% and Hillary was polling above 50%. Now he's only down by about 6%. Hillary's "trading range" has been 44-48% since September; while Trump's range has been 42-47%.

                    Hillary's "trading range" against Rubio and Cruz is about the same as against Trump. The difference is that they have higher ranges than Trump.

                    About 15-20% of the electorate are undecided and/or noncommittal at this point.

                    The thing that Trump is doing better than any GOP candidate since Reagan, is appealing to blue collar voters...

                    The single best predictor of Trump support in the GOP primary is the absence of a college degree. In an analysis of Trump's blowout win in New Hampshire, Evan Soltas determined that the factor explaining most of the variance in Trump's support in New Hampshire was education.

                    “For every 1 percentage point more college graduates over the age of 25, Donald Trump's share of votes falls by 0.65 percentage points,” he said.

                    Diplomas are what Ron Brownstein calls the “new Republican fault line.” In 2012, Mitt Romney struggled for months to consolidate support because, even as he had clear support among college-educated Republicans, he fared worse among non-college voters.

                    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...really/471714/

                    College educated, libertarian/conservative Republican voters aren't likely to be stupid enough to vote Libertarian or stay at home because they are embarrassed by Trump.
                    Attached Files
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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                      But such a subjective use of the term moderate doesn't really explain or account for such fluctuations, not to mention the other documented political trends (such as backlashes against long reigning parties). When everyone but Reagan is classified as a moderate, it calls into question the definition of "moderate".
                      That's why I think a more useful metric would be a measure of the degree to which the energized voters.

                      Reagan was a genuine conservative. He never couched it in phrases like "compassionate conservatism." Reagan always spoke his mind; he rarely minced words. People believed that Reagan believed in what he was saying.
                      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Tuebor View Post
                        Ford lost because he pardoned Nixon, not because he was a "moderate. Reagan (was he really a "conservative--" modern Conservatives claim it, but does that really make it so) was up against Jimmy Carter who was going to lose even if a walrus ran against him.
                        Tuebor
                        I agree, especially on Carter.
                        Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                          McCain also lost because of the anti-GOP swell after 8 years of Bush.
                          McCain lost for every possible reason imaginable.
                          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                            That's why I think a more useful metric would be a measure of the degree to which the energized voters.

                            Reagan was a genuine conservative. He never couched it in phrases like "compassionate conservatism." Reagan always spoke his mind; he rarely minced words. People believed that Reagan believed in what he was saying.
                            I agree there, but I would add that's it's a when multiple different factors combine that you see victory.

                            Reagan was a clear, optimistic communicator running after lackluster, depressing years under Carter, in the age of major political and economic shocks. Obama was able to energize many different groups and create a viable strategy out of normally unlikely voters, was running after 8 years of war and increasingly larger anti-GOP backlash, and presented a positive, optimistic message in comparison.

                            The biggest benefits for the GOP this election are dissatisfaction with reigning democrats and how that is leading to less engagement by Democrats and a fired up GOP base. Those are powerful trends that could justify victory alone.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                              McCain lost for every possible reason imaginable.
                              I think that's why the "not conservative enough" argument often falls flat, because there are so many other factors at work as well. Even Reagan 2.0 wouldn't have won in 2008.

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                              • #30
                                Not conservative enough now means not part of the privileged political class.
                                We hunt the hunters

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