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  • If the Republicans go to a brokered convention....

    With the continued fractured Republican electorate the chance of a brokered convention is becoming more likely.

    I'm not talking about where the insiders pull strings and manipulate the rules.

    I'm talking about a case where no candidate has the 1,237 delegates needed to win.

    Let's say Trump has 35%, Rubio and Cruz 25% each and Kasich 15%.

    The Trump people will argue that he has the most support and should be the nominee.

    And of course the other camps will argue that the vast majority of Republican voters voted against Trump.

    If the non Trump forces united and nominated either Kasich, Cruz or Rubio would the Trump supporters get behind them? Especially if Trump threw a tantrum?
    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it" Beatrice Evelyn Hall
    Updated for the 21st century... except if you are criticizing islam, that scares the $hii+e out of me!

  • #2
    I don't see the basis for 'fractured'. There have been plenty of conventions where multiple candidates reach the final line.

    I seriously doubt Trump supporters will switch. They chose Trump because they don't believe in the others.
    Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
      I don't see the basis for 'fractured'. There have been plenty of conventions where multiple candidates reach the final line.

      I seriously doubt Trump supporters will switch. They chose Trump because they don't believe in the others.
      None in a long time where there was not a single candidate without enough to win. Even in the closest one in 60 years, GOP 1976, Gerald Ford still had enough to clinch.
      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
      “To talk of many things:
      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
      Of cabbages—and kings—
      And why the sea is boiling hot—
      And whether pigs have wings.”
      ― Lewis Carroll

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
        I don't see the basis for 'fractured'. There have been plenty of conventions where multiple candidates reach the final line.

        I seriously doubt Trump supporters will switch. They chose Trump because they don't believe in the others.
        In Romney's speech, he told Republican not to vote for the candidate that they support, but rather for the candidate that is strongest against Trump in each individual state. Sounds to me that The Establishment is trying to attain a brokered convention. That just might **** off more people to thrown in with Trump.
        Last edited by Salinator; 04 Mar 16, 14:45.
        Flag: USA / Location: West Coast

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Salinator View Post
          In Romney's speech, he told Republican not to vote for the candidate that they support, but rather for the candidate that is strongest against Trump in each individual state. Sounds to me that The Establish is trying to attain a brokered convention. That just might **** off more people to thrown in with Trump.
          Romney is an a**.

          The weird thing is that the Establishment dislikes Cruz far more than Trump.

          You're right, this may well backfire and strengthen Trump. Americans love an underdog.
          Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
            I don't see the basis for 'fractured'. There have been plenty of conventions where multiple candidates reach the final line.

            I seriously doubt Trump supporters will switch. They chose Trump because they don't believe in the others.
            I don't expect that they would switch their votes at the convention.

            I'm more interested in what they would do if he did not get the nomination at the convention.
            "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it" Beatrice Evelyn Hall
            Updated for the 21st century... except if you are criticizing islam, that scares the $hii+e out of me!

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            • #7
              Going after Romney:

              https://www.facebook.com/FoxNews/vid...71336/?fref=nf
              "I don't discuss sitting presidents," Mattis tells NPR in an interview. "I believe that you owe a period of quiet."

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              • #8
                Its not going to happen, but they need to do away with the convention delegates choosing the President. It should be a pure vote. That being said, I shudder at the thought of Trump being the Republican nominee.

                I don't think anyone can really predict what will happen at the GOP convention this year. It will be a three-ring circus with Trump and Cruz fighting the Old Guard. The votes from unbound states and territories are only going to add to the circus.

                I'm more than a little disgusted by the entire spectacle.

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                • #9
                  There's been a lot of speculation going around on here and on cable news that if Trump is the nominee he might actually have a shot at beating Hillary. This conclusion rests on four very risky assumptions:

                  1) That the silent majority really does stand with Trump
                  2) That all GOP voters will simply line up behind Trump and not stay home
                  3) That Trump has actually grown the party (with blue-collar democrats) and increased turnout
                  4)That minorities will no longer matter in elections because Obama isn't running

                  These assumptions don't hold up. Trump will not win the GE in November, in fact he will get slaughtered. Not only will most Republicans stay home as a result but many might indeed defect to Hillary. This is for the simple reason that Trump frightens them. Hillary is the lying dirt-bag they know; Trump is a wild card who might go in one of many directions; few of them good.

                  We shall see what happens.
                  "I am the Lorax, and I'll yell and I'll shout for the fine things on earth that are on their way out!"

                  ~Dr. Seuss, The Lorax


                  "The trouble with Scotland...is that it's full of Scots!"

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                  • #10
                    Unfortunately, I don't think Trump would be totally slaughtered in the popular vote. I know people who despise Trump that will still vote for him over Hillary.

                    A lot of people will vote for a third party candidate in protest before they vote for Trump, which still benefits Hillary. I just don't think I can possibly vote for Trump if he's the nominee.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Biscuit View Post
                      Unfortunately, I don't think Trump would be totally slaughtered in the popular vote. I know people who despise Trump that will still vote for him over Hillary.
                      You bet, I am one.

                      Words from a song, " I held my nose, I closed my eyes, I took a drink".
                      Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

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                      • #12
                        It's too late :the GOP is saddled up with Trump and it's its own fault : they have created Trump:the GOP Congress has done nothing to stop Obama and the party establishment want to impose Rubio :Rubio has no chance against Hillary and he is unsuitable for the post of president .

                        There is a populist upraising and if the GOP does not change its direction it will also be swept away .

                        If the GOP had done what it should have done, there would be no Trump movement .

                        People want someone who will clean Washington and Jeb nor Rubio will do this .

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                        • #13
                          Delegates are generally determined by the party establishment in the states, and are not necessarily beholden to any give candidate. Brokering a convention will not be all that difficult. However:

                          AJR is right. Cruz will have quite a say, but he is not liked by the establishment (or most anybody who does not affiliate with the Tea Party movement), and he is even more unelectable in November than Trump. Still Cruz will want something in return for not being on the ticket so the question is what his plan B? Most certainly it will be a good cabinet position, or if he really plays hardball, Senate Majority Leader.

                          Rubio's inexperience is showing and it is beginning to hurt his chances at heading the ticket. Therefore the only reasonable candidate would be Kasich whose reputation, at least, is on the rise. However he really really needs to start winning some place and the bigger the state the better. I think he must win Michigan on Tuesday or be very very close to Trump. Latest poll out the past few days shows Kasich now with a a slight lead over Trump. He will need every last bit of support to win. That said, he must win his home state of Ohio convincingly. If he does that he has a chance at New Jersey (!) and Illinois. If Kasich can gather enough delegates, especially in swing states, to be at least in third place, he has a good argument for heading the ticket.

                          It is completely unknown how Trump voters will react with him not being on the ticket. Some will certainly vote with their feet, but most will be so disgusted at the thought of Hillary as president they may not.

                          It is unclear how much of the increased turnout is in favor of Trump, and how much is scared s***less of Trump.

                          A Trump 3rd party run is a real possibility, and Trump will also want something pricey from the convention for not running. What that might be is anybody's guess.

                          One important item to note. While Trump's supporters are quite vocal and energized, it ought to be remembered that the turnout in November is going to be 4 to 5 times what it is in the primaries, and that means Trump's real support is going to be far less than it is now...percentage wise. Or at least it would be normally. But this is not a normal year.

                          Tuebor

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                          • #14
                            If the old guard Republican leadership get their way by forcing out Trump, Cruz, Rubio, in favor of Romney, they will have completed their political suicide. Hillery, or Sanders if Hillery is indicted, wins the election, a Progressive is appointed to the Supreme Court, "People" is defined as community or group, opposition to the Progressive agenda will then be made illegal, and we will become a one party Government similar to many a Socialist or dictator states worldwide.
                            “Breaking News,”

                            “Something irrelevant in your life just happened and now we are going to blow it all out of proportion for days to keep you distracted from what's really going on.”

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SRV Ron View Post
                              If the old guard Republican leadership get their way by forcing out Trump, Cruz, Rubio, in favor of Romney, they will have completed their political suicide. Hillery, or Sanders if Hillery is indicted, wins the election, a Progressive is appointed to the Supreme Court, "People" is defined as community or group, opposition to the Progressive agenda will then be made illegal, and we will become a one party Government similar to many a Socialist or dictator states worldwide.
                              I don't think Romney is in the running, but believe he is quietly being used as the unofficial official spokesman for "the Establishment."

                              Interesting election to be sure.

                              Tuebor

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