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Not since the 1850's Whig implosion have we seen a major US party tear itself apart

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  • Not since the 1850's Whig implosion have we seen a major US party tear itself apart

    What is they say in Ulan Bator or is Timbuktu?

    Oh yes: “May you live in interesting times.”

    Well they sure as heck are upon the US of A now.
    Now before the usual suspects start up, this is not an anti-Trump or anti-GOP thread-starter per se.

    It’s a post I hope we can use to see these developments and upheaval in the GOP in some kind of historical context.
    This is after all and above all a history forum is it not?

    While he’ll never be president, it’s looking increasing like he’ll be the Republican candidate in November…..[B]if the GOP actually puts him forward as the candidate.[/B

    At this point, if I’m not mistaken (and of course I almost never am), the GOP establishment must be at a point of trying to fine-tune some way to rig the convention floor vote to rob Trump of his nomination.[/

    The party heavyweight (apparatchiks) may be hoping that, though Trump could go into the convention as the leading candidate he may not have a straight (at least 50.1%) majority on the first ballot.

    After the first ballot delegates are released to vote anyway they want, is that not so?

    Feasibly Trump could be held off on the first ballot by a combination of other delegates from Cruz or Rubio and super delegates and then defeated on the second, third or even fourth ballot?
    As some commentators have pointed out this has not been done in the modern era and would be considered underhand, unprecedented, utterly cynical and bordering on utter desperation.

    It could result in Trump and his supporters breaking away as independents or ‘honest and real’ Republicans
    History possibly in the making indeed.

    Regards lodestar

  • #2
    I think Lodestar's analysis is flawed. At this stage, the Reps want someone in the White House more than anything else. If Trump is the people's choice, they will back him.

    Politics has no ethics or morals, and no standards of any kind, either. After all, the Dems are backing Shrillary, a known criminal.

    Thus speaketh Mountain Man.

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    • #3
      Talking about wigs - anyone believe that's his real hair ?

      Or hers for that matter ?
      Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

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      • #4
        The GOP will back whoever makes it. A body in the Oval office is the goal, and they dislike Cruz the most.

        Word is the Trump and the GOP brass have made their peace weeks ago.
        Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post
          Talking about wigs - anyone believe that's his real hair ?
          No, it comes from a Golden Retriever.
          Trying hard to be the Man, that my Dog believes I am!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post
            Talking about wigs - anyone believe that's his real hair ?
            That's showmanship.

            Trump is a salesman-when to get to the core of his business model, he's all about sales and calculated risks.

            He is running in the fashion of a used car salesman doing his own TV ads, and apparently it is getting a response.

            He's not my first choice, but I'm developing a grudging respect for his unique campaign style.
            Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
              (...) He's not my first choice, but I'm developing a grudging respect for his unique campaign style.
              His unique campaign style was apparent from the start, and it may be the only way the upset the established crowd in US politics.

              It is the drama of US politics that in order to appeal to the common denominator of such a huge electorate you have to resort to *very* simple concepts.


              But how about his hair ?
              Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post
                But how about his hair ?
                Part of the package, I think. He's wearing a rug, but a rug that's obviously fake. Which suggests he doesn't take it seriously.
                Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Trung Si View Post
                  No, it comes from a Golden Retriever.
                  His...or hers?

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                  • #10
                    Trump's elaborate comb-over will terrify friend and foe alike. Who knows what dark forces he could be hiding under that thing?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                      Trump's elaborate comb-over will terrify friend and foe alike. Who knows what dark forces he could be hiding under that thing?
                      I thought it was a genetically modified marmoset trained to sit on his head.
                      Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                      Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
                        The GOP will back whoever makes it. A body in the Oval office is the goal, and they dislike Cruz the most.

                        Word is the Trump and the GOP brass have made their peace weeks ago.
                        Yup. What Lodestar fails to realize is that the Whig Party did not "tear itself apart," but merged with the upstart Free Soilers to form the modern Republican Party. Today's Republican party is the Whig Party. The Free Soilers (Radical Republicans during the 1860s) were a one issue movement that was finished by the time of the Compromise of 1877. The Southern Democrats who moved to the Republican party in the 1980's and 1990's was nothing more than the Southern Whigs coming home.

                        That said, what I think is happening in both parties this year is that the electorate is tired of being ignored by the "Establishment" in Washing Town, and so are sending a deliberate message. "If you refuse to change, then we will make the change ourselves!" McConnell is still in denial (given his recent comments), but I think others are beginning to see the light. I am not a Trump supporter, but more and more I think I can see why he is where he is.

                        November will turn on who gets the most turnout, and to the degree the female voter has become more "sophisticated." By that I mean how much they have become multi-issue voters as opposed to single issue "vote for the woman because she is one of us." Women have been moving increasingly from that position, but Hillary is going to rely on it to get her over the top. Much more "War on Women" to come. Ah, I'm drifting...

                        Tuebor

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                        • #13
                          Trump's hair reminds me of something Tom Snyder...for you non-Americans he was a long time tv talk show host...used to say. "I have 10 acres of hair covering 40 acres of scalp."
                          Attached Files

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                          • #14
                            Lodestar needs to look deeper than the Presidency.

                            The Republicans currently, and for about the last two decades have:

                            Steadily increased the number of governors in state office.
                            Steadily increased their control on Congress, in terms of years in power.
                            Steadily increased their control of state legislatures.

                            The result of that is really worrying to the DNC because of the results they are seeing at the state, and even federal level in terms of power.

                            Republican state legislatures and governors are undoing the Democrat place social welfare state across the country. Michigan went Right to Work. That was unthinkable to Democrats. Michigan was the final bastion, the shining example, of closed shop mandatory union membership.
                            Unions in general are on the decline. Serious decline.
                            Legislative districts are drawn up by state legislatures. Guess which party is getting to draw more and more of them?

                            In the long run, if the Democrats become the party of Progressives and synonymous with the Left, they will become a permanent minority party of maybe 25% of the electorate, possibly less.

                            Trump is something of an aberration. But, I wouldn't put as much stock in the MSM screaming holly hell over him as they are.
                            Whatever the outcome of the Presidential election is, it is very likely that the Republicans will come away stronger in four more years, not weaker. Hillary will hand them congress in the mid terms and is unlikely to regain control of it this year.
                            In the next Presidential election if Hillary is elected, she be facing a far, far more hostile electorate after four years of blithering incompetence and mendacity.

                            Like I said, a jerk like Trump can be ignored. A political rapist like Hillary can't.

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                            • #15
                              Trump an entertainer above all else

                              Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
                              That's showmanship.

                              Trump is a salesman-when to get to the core of his business model, he's all about sales and calculated risks.

                              He is running in the fashion of a used car salesman doing his own TV ads, and apparently it is getting a response.

                              He's not my first choice, but I'm developing a grudging respect for his unique campaign style.
                              Quite so.
                              I pointed out all this about three months ago on my thread-stater:

                              "Trumps mistakes and foibles are boosting his popularity. Is he an American Putin?"

                              I said in Post # 144 of that thread (in response to Mountain Man):

                              "I really like Trump as an entertainer and showman but think his 'politics' are simply part of that persona.

                              I doubt if he really believes in anything and doesn't care less. For example, he was a Clinton man in the '90's and his current Health plan rehashes Hilary's one from that era.
                              Racist? No way.... but if people are drawn to him because of things he says and they believe he 'tells it like it is' and 'just says what everyone thinks' why would he disappoint them?

                              Come on, the guy's having the time of his life national grandstanding as well as derailing the GOP and loving every minute of it!

                              He'll be remembered long after the other candidates are footnotes."



                              Regards lodestar

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