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Nevada and Beyond--U.S. Primary Elections

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  • Nevada and Beyond--U.S. Primary Elections

    Nevada may have just become the tipping point of the GOP Primaries. No so much for its value (she only has 30 delegates to dole out), but as a confirmation of trends. For the first time Trump has broken out from his 30% purgatory by securing 45% of the vote. Cruz has faltered once again by falling several percent short of second place Rubio who seems to be on pace to take the Silver and, very probably, the Veep slot on the Republican ticket.

    Trump seems to be doing surprisingly well amongst women. At least Republican women, and his "war on women" comments early on does not seem to have hurt him in the slightest. He also seems to be polling well among Republican Hispanics, and enjoys support throughout the GOP poltical spectrum with moderates and Tea Party support. It is weird,, does not make a lick of sense, but he is the only one out there who can claim to be "THE consensus candidate." He has certainly excited the GOP Electorate. GOP turnout has been 25% higher than it was in 2012, and Trump is the primary cause.

    According to the latest polling we have for next Tuesday's "SEC Primary" Trump leads in all of those states except Texas where he is pretty much in a statistical dead heat with Cruz. If Cruz does not win by a significant margin in Texas then he is toast (no pun intended...for the most part). In all the other polls that I have seen he is trailing Rubio and sometimes is in 4th place.

    Kasich is in trouble. He needed to do better, but he is not a kosher morsel in the Southern or Mountain states, and by the time the upper midwest vote he will be through. Current polls in Ohio show him beating Hillary but losing to Trump. What that says, I think, is that while people in Ohio generally like Kasich, Trump is a safe enough bet to take the state in the General, which leaves further room for Rubio (and all those nice Latino voters...as well as women for which he is quite popular with even now) on the ticket.

    Next Tuesday will pretty much tell us how the rest of the Primaries will go. One vital bit info to look for is voter turnout. Hitherto GOP turnout, as mentioned, is a fourth again greater than it was in 2012, whereas Democratic turnout is more than 20 percent lower than in 2008. If that trend continues, then it is going to be a bad election year for the Democrats.

    Tuebor

  • #2
    Trump is winning the presidency.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Charger View Post
      Trump is winning the presidency.
      We are not now that strength which in old days
      Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
      Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
      To strive to seek to find and not to yield.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Massena View Post
        Still in denial I see. Same as the media and establishment.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Charger View Post
          Still in denial I see. Same as the media and establishment.
          Still waiting for you to man-up and admit that you were wrong. I have all the time in the world.

          Comment


          • #6
            Its going to be Trump vs. Hillary in November.

            And, given that, I might start watching the Debates again... they just might be the funniest ones ever!



            Too bad nobody in D.C. has the nerve to indict Hillary, old Bernie the Socialist vs Trump the Capitalist would have been more educational.

            Comment


            • #7
              And people think politics are boring. It's reality tv where the stakes actually matter. And this time we have a crazier field of candidates, an angrier voting bloc, and more people than ever believing this election is the "most important election evar!!1"

              I can't wait for fall.

              Comment


              • #8
                If early on conservatives had seen the light Trump would be an almost certain winner for the presidency. Now they have damaged him so badly Clinton could win. I even think with the right spin he could have gotten some minority votes from people who don't like Clinton. The way to shake off the bigot label from the conservatives is not to call Trump a bigot.
                We hunt the hunters

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                  And people think politics are boring. It's reality tv where the stakes actually matter. And this time we have a crazier field of candidates, an angrier voting bloc, and more people than ever believing this election is the "most important election evar!!1"

                  I can't wait for fall.
                  I can wait. I'm not preparing for non-alcohol induced warm fuzzies! This has all the markings of a train wreck!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
                    Its going to be Trump vs. Hillary in November.

                    And, given that, I might start watching the Debates again... they just might be the funniest ones ever!



                    Too bad nobody in D.C. has the nerve to indict Hillary, old Bernie the Socialist vs Trump the Capitalist would have been more educational.
                    Trump said he will prosecute her.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by johns624 View Post
                      Still waiting for you to man-up and admit that you were wrong.
                      Hm, on what?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Charger View Post
                        Hm, on what?
                        This thread-post#78
                        http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...=167766&page=6

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Charger View Post
                          Still in denial I see. Same as the media and establishment.
                          You need to stop assuming that everyone who opposes Trump is automatically part of some vaguely defined "establishment". There's a world of difference between what is generally defined as "establishment" (ie: Jeb Bush - and even he is much more conservative than many believe) and Rubio, Cruz, Rand Paul, etc.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Tuebor View Post
                            Nevada may have just become the tipping point of the GOP Primaries. No so much for its value (she only has 30 delegates to dole out), but as a confirmation of trends. For the first time Trump has broken out from his 30% purgatory by securing 45% of the vote. Cruz has faltered once again by falling several percent short of second place Rubio who seems to be on pace to take the Silver and, very probably, the Veep slot on the Republican ticket.

                            Trump seems to be doing surprisingly well amongst women. At least Republican women, and his "war on women" comments early on does not seem to have hurt him in the slightest. He also seems to be polling well among Republican Hispanics, and enjoys support throughout the GOP poltical spectrum with moderates and Tea Party support. It is weird,, does not make a lick of sense, but he is the only one out there who can claim to be "THE consensus candidate." He has certainly excited the GOP Electorate. GOP turnout has been 25% higher than it was in 2012, and Trump is the primary cause.

                            According to the latest polling we have for next Tuesday's "SEC Primary" Trump leads in all of those states except Texas where he is pretty much in a statistical dead heat with Cruz. If Cruz does not win by a significant margin in Texas then he is toast (no pun intended...for the most part). In all the other polls that I have seen he is trailing Rubio and sometimes is in 4th place.

                            Kasich is in trouble. He needed to do better, but he is not a kosher morsel in the Southern or Mountain states, and by the time the upper midwest vote he will be through. Current polls in Ohio show him beating Hillary but losing to Trump. What that says, I think, is that while people in Ohio generally like Kasich, Trump is a safe enough bet to take the state in the General, which leaves further room for Rubio (and all those nice Latino voters...as well as women for which he is quite popular with even now) on the ticket.

                            Next Tuesday will pretty much tell us how the rest of the Primaries will go. One vital bit info to look for is voter turnout. Hitherto GOP turnout, as mentioned, is a fourth again greater than it was in 2012, whereas Democratic turnout is more than 20 percent lower than in 2008. If that trend continues, then it is going to be a bad election year for the Democrats.

                            Tuebor
                            It actually makes complete sense. Americans are tired of two things: PC-speak and constant political lies, and Trump does neither. He speaks the truth as he sees it, and it resonates with the American voters.

                            Trump is sending a very clear message to the Federal government and the other candidates, but they aren't listening...and they need to.

                            Yes, Trump is brazen, abrasive and definitely impolite, but Americans everywhere know exactly what he is thinking because he tells them what he thinks, not what he thinks they want to hear.

                            We are witnessing the greatest political backlash since Obama declared that he "wasn't Bush".

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Charger View Post
                              ...Trump is winning the presidency...
                              Not quite yet. He trying to win the Republican nomination to run as president.

                              Comment

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