DOW Meltdown

[Fareasterner]

Current news on television is about the Dow meltdown and oil dropping below $30/barrel.

It's about time the consumers got a break.


http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/01/15/dow-plummets-more-than-500-points-as-oil-prices-sink.html?intcmp=hpbt1

There is opinion it is not meldown yet. Maybe in spring or summer.

[Fareasterner]

I see the price of oil dropping due to the world economy, including the US, slowing down. Fossil fuel drives the engine of the economy. If the economy is weak there is less need for fossil fuel. In addition falling oil prices will be reflected in your 401k as a loos.

Today consumer's demand is driving economy. Signs of economy shrinking is decline in retail and transportation goods by railroads. Since 1980th economy was fueled by consumer credits. Crediting policy was changed by the time, debtors were allowed to acquire new credits not paying previous. Now this economy model came to an end. Households have too big debts while savings are much smaller than in 1950th-1970th.
There are reports that many national banks started selling US treasuries from their reserves. Biggest seller is China, they need money to alleviate their problems in economy.

[Fareasterner]

Coal in enormous quantities is already with us and always has been.

Contemporary civilization is oil based. Coal is more expencive and produces more negative environmental effect

[The Doctor]

Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:38pm EST

Oil shock is hurting U.S. economy: Kemp

LONDON | BY JOHN KEMP

Slumping oil and gas prices and a downturn in investment are proving to be major headwinds for the economies of the United States and other key important petroleum producers.

Economists tend to think of oil and gas as simply an input into the production process for other goods and services, which is why they tend to think of falling fuel prices as a positive influence on economic activity.

But the production and refining of oil and gas is also a major industry in its own right, so a downturn in drilling can have a big negative effect on growth in the short to medium term, until the positive effects on other industries and consumption dominate in the long run.

[...]

Economists tend to think of oil and gas as simply an input into the production process for other goods and services, which is why they tend to think of falling fuel prices as a positive influence on economic activity.

But the production and refining of oil and gas is also a major industry in its own right, so a downturn in drilling can have a big negative effect on growth in the short to medium term, until the positive effects on other industries and consumption dominate in the long run.

By turnover and investment, petroleum exploration, production, refining, transportation and marketing is one of the largest industries in the United States and around the world.

In the United States, businesses engaged in oil and gas extraction and refining spent almost $200 billion on new equipment and structures in 2013, the most recent year for which data are available.

Oil and gas extraction and refining accounted for more than 14 percent of all new capital expenditures in the United States in 2013, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Oil and gas drilling and associated services on their own accounted for more than 13 percent of whole-economy capital expenditures ("Annual Capital Expenditures Survey" Table 4a).

The oil and gas drilling boom drove an enormous amount of extra expenditure and provided a significant boost to the entire economy.

Between 2003 and 2013, capital spending by oil and gas drillers quadrupled from $40 billion per year to almost $160 billion (tmsnrt.rs/1RZXXqS).

Capital expenditures surged even further in the first half of 2014 as the boom reached its peak but since then have been cut sharply.

Unsurprisingly, the collapse in investment spending has produced a measurable slowdown in the broader economy.

The downturn is evident in everything from data on industrial production to freight movements by road and rail.

[...]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKCN0UX015

[Mountain Man]

How about if we turn in a politician who isn't working properly? Do we get cash back on him?

[jeffdoorgunnr]

Good luck with that, the best solution Obama has for you is to keep the tire pressure at the daily allowances.

Alternative energy to oil is about 25 years away.

you can always pray for another "cash for clunkers" program

[Mountain Man]

[The Doctor]

Coal in enormous quantities is already with us and always has been.

And is being made inaccessible...http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-w...nounced-friday

[Mountain Man]

Good luck with that, the best solution Obama has for you is to keep the tire pressure at the daily allowances.

Alternative energy to oil is about 25 years away.

Coal in enormous quantities is already with us and always has been.

[The Doctor]

The economics are what they are...

The head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in January said that low oil prices provided a "tremendous positive impact" on the American economy.
But fresh economic data is confounding that projection. The U.S. economy expanded at a meager rate of just 0.2 percent in the first three months of 2015, and that figure could be revised lower, according to the Wall Street Journal. The poor performance can be attributed, at least in part, to low oil prices.

That is because the U.S. is not just a major oil importer, but also a massive oil producer. The fall in oil prices has inflicted widespread damage on oil-producing states like Texas, Alaska, North Dakota, and Louisiana. If not for severe cutbacks in capital investment on behalf of American oil companies and other related sectors, U.S. GDP would have been 0.75 percentage points higher.

The billions of dollars in slashed investment ripples through all sorts of industrial activity – from manufacturing and heavy equipment, to financial services, commercial real estate and even housing.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...nomy/27146111/

[Mountain Man]

Originally Posted by The Doctor
Half-right. The Saudis are out to regain market share. The Saudis won't do anything to intentionally drive the price up until they have killed the US shale plays... which won't die.

Low prices will persist for quite some time, unless something unexpected happens.

Contrary to conventional thinking, low oil prices are driving our economy down this time. Over the last 8 years, oil & gas was just about the only growth industry in the US.

So says the guy who gets his big paycheck and bonuses from an oil company.

Big Oil made it difficult for a lot of people to afford transportation and drove up prices of everything including food and basic necessities with their insatiable greed for record profits, and was especially tough on people on fixed incomes - retirees like myself, the elderly and those with median-to-low-to-poverty-level incomes. That's fact, not oil company propaganda.

Keep a record for us, Doc - we want to know every single oil company in America that folds and goes under. Then we want you to compare that with every single American and every single business who folded and went under while oil prices were way up.

Big Oil is going to start closing refineries and artificially driving up the price of fuels just as soon as they think they can get away with it, and we all know it. So forgive us if we don't shed any tears for you.

[johns624]

Yeah, Warren Buffet got out of the stock market...

[SRV Ron]

I see the price of oil dropping due to the world economy, including the US, slowing down. Fossil fuel drives the engine of the economy. If the economy is weak there is less need for fossil fuel. In addition falling oil prices will be reflected in your 401k as a loos.

Check what has happened to stocks the past two weeks. That has exactly happened as the Obama Regime desperately tries to prop up the oversold stock market house of cards.

It is a rigged game that is heading for a crash big time. The big players have left some time ago. The little investors are going to get it even worse then they did in 1929. It will just take longer then normal given the Government propping up going on which has failed in China's stock market.

[FTCS]

I see the price of oil dropping due to the world economy, including the US, slowing down. Fossil fuel drives the engine of the economy. If the economy is weak there is less need for fossil fuel. In addition falling oil prices will be reflected in your 401k as a loos.

[The Doctor]

Aren't US shale plays mostly on state & privately owned lands instead of federal lands? So Obama can't easily shut down the shale production.

The Saudis are trying to shut the shale plays down. Most of them are uneconomic below $50/bbl.

Unfortunately, he's also hell bent on destroying the coal and gas industries. Just recently Obama administration placed a moratorium on the mining in Powder River Basin. That will hurt the coal industry as well many coal-powered plants are shutting down all over the country.

He's already killed coal.

If I didn't know better, I'd think Obama and Saudis are working in secret to knock out the US energy companies, which is kind of ironic since Obama insisted on weaning the US off dependence on the foreign oil. Obama has poured billions of dollars into alternate energy solutions, all to little practical benefit, and yet, he refuses to see this for what it is -- an onerous and expensive burden for ordinary consumers to handle.

The differences between Maobama and the Saudis, are that the Saudis are competent and not Marxists..

But with new technologies and widening the depth of oil discovery studies, I'd think it's going to be hard for Saudis to drive the fracking and boom in US shale production out of business permanently. If there is one thing to take away from this turn of events, it's that oil is really cheap and plenteous.

The market will have to rebalance. This means that US oil companies will have.to "shrink to grow." US oil production and proved reserves will drop over the next few years, companies will be in survival mode and M&A will be the only way to grow.

Dejavu all over again.

If OPEC didn't exist and we allowed the markets to play out naturally, I don't think we'd be in this position right now. I believe someday down the road, Saudis will turn out to be major losers.

OPEC may already be dead. The Saudis don't need them.

What do you say?

I say, "buy low, sell high."