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Trump moves up in Iowa Caucus Polling. Are his Birther Attacks the reason?

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  • Trump moves up in Iowa Caucus Polling. Are his Birther Attacks the reason?

    When Trump first started his 'birther' innuendo he mostly did it via tweets and phone in's to Morning TV. This last week he has stepped up the game and incorporated it into Iowa stump speeches and local interviews. The last two Iowa polls show a drop for Sen Cruz and a climb back up for Trump.

    So is this a way to get back some GOP 'Base'?

    Current Iowa RCP average:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3194.html

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...anning-birther

    Donald Trump thinks he has found Ted Cruz’s kryptonite.
    The Texas senator has been put on the defensive and off message since Trump began raising questions about his rival’s eligibility to serve as president. It’s an issue that resonates with GOP base voters, if few others.
    Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, hit Cruz, who is in second place in national polls, again on Monday, warning that Democrats would sue if the Tea Party favorite were the party’s -standard-bearer in the fall.
    Trump’s focus on eligibility seems to be gaining more traction than his attacks on other issues, such as Cruz’s stance on ethanol or his religious convictions.
    Last edited by Combat Engineer; 12 Jan 16, 08:05.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

  • #2
    Trump didn't move up. Rubio and a couple of bottom feeders moved up, while Cruz moved down. Nothing outside of the noise level of the RCP average.
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
      Trump didn't move up. Rubio and a couple of bottom feeders moved up, while Cruz moved down. Nothing outside of the noise level of the RCP average.
      23 and 24% were the two previous polls, last two 29 and 31%.
      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
      “To talk of many things:
      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
      Of cabbages—and kings—
      And why the sea is boiling hot—
      And whether pigs have wings.”
      ― Lewis Carroll

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
        23 and 24% were the two previous polls, last two 29 and 31%.
        RCP Average...

        Attached Files
        Last edited by The Doctor; 12 Jan 16, 09:18.
        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

        Comment


        • #5
          And the last two polls, which make up 50% of the graph? Up. Next question is what do the next 2-4 polls show? With the caucus less 3 weeks away we will see lots and lots of polling.
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
            And the last two polls? Up.
            The RCP average for Trump is flat. It couldn't be any flatter.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
              The RCP average for Trump is flat. It couldn't be any flatter.
              Flat is fine, if you're ahead. Works out great timing wise. Once the two lower polls drop out, soon, we'll see where he comes out.
              “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
              “To talk of many things:
              Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
              Of cabbages—and kings—
              And why the sea is boiling hot—
              And whether pigs have wings.”
              ― Lewis Carroll

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                Flat is fine, if you're ahead. Works out great timing wise. Once the two lower polls drop out, soon, we'll see where he comes out.
                He'll be flat. He's been flat since September. He has no trend.
                Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                  He'll be flat. He's been flat since September. He has no trend.
                  All that matters is the difference between first and second place. From Sen Cruz +4 to Trump +4 or +2. Six or eight point swing.
                  “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                  “To talk of many things:
                  Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                  Of cabbages—and kings—
                  And why the sea is boiling hot—
                  And whether pigs have wings.”
                  ― Lewis Carroll

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                    All that matters is the difference between first and second place. From Sen Cruz +4 to Trump +4 or +2. Six or eight point swing.
                    There has been no "swing." Cruz has never led in the Quinnipiac poll, one of the two in which you say Trump has come up.

                    Quinnipiac...

                    Date................ Cruz Trump (+/-)
                    1/10/2016 ........29 31 (+2)
                    12/13/2015...... 27 28 (+1)
                    11/22/2015...... 23 25 (+2)
                    10/20/2015...... 10 20 (+10)
                    9/8/2015.......... 9 27 (+18)
                    6/29/2015 ........9 10 (+1)

                    The other poll in which you say Trump has come up is ARG. That is the only ARG poll in the RCP sample.
                    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                    Comment

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