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Interactive 2016 US Presidential Election Infographic

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  • Interactive 2016 US Presidential Election Infographic

    I found this pretty cool infographic on the upcoming 2016 US Presidential Election. It's from 538. If you haven't heard of the site, it's the home of Nate Silver, the statistician that accurately predicted the 2012 results for every state.


    Here's how the infographic works:

    How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party’s candidate by the five demographic groups. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state — as well as the Electoral College outcome and the national popular vote — taking into account how much of the state’s electorate the group accounts for.
    And the four main demographic groups they use:

    COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITE
    In 2012, Barack Obama performed 6 percentage points better among white voters with college degrees than those without them, up from a 5-point gap in 2008. Most prominent in suburbs and in swing states like Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia, this growing segment turns out to vote much more reliably than any other group, and Democrats have been on the upswing with these voters. In 2012, Obama carried 257 of the 673 majority-white counties where over a third of residents ages 25 and older hold at least a bachelor's degree. In 2000, Al Gore carried just 169 of these same counties.
    NON-COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITE
    Whites without college degrees are now the bedrock of the Republican coalition: They voted for Mitt Romney 62 percent to 36 percent in 2012. However, their share of the electorate is rapidly shrinking: They skew older and more rural, and we project that their share of the national vote will fall to 33 percent in 2016, down from 36 percent in 2012. Nonetheless, they still factor heavily in battleground states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin.
    BLACK
    Blacks are consistently Democrats’ best demographic group. Not only did they give Obama 93 percent of their vote in 2012, their turnout rate of 66 percent that year was 2 points higher than that of whites. If black turnout drops in 2016, Democrats will have much less room for error in key states such as Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
    HISPANIC/LATINO
    Latino voters are a steadily growing share of the electorate, and they gave Obama 71 percent of their vote in 2012 — up 18 points from the 53 percent they gave the 2004 Democratic nominee, John Kerry. However, they tend to turn out at much lower rates than whites and African-Americans and are heavily concentrated in non-battleground states like California, New York and Texas, limiting their influence in the Electoral College.
    ASIAN/OTHER
    Although Asians and others (including Native Americans, Native Hawaiians and multiracial voters) made up just 5 percent of all voters in 2012, they are the fastest-growing segment of the voting-eligible population. Obama took 73 percent of the Asian vote in 2012, 2 points higher than his share among Latinos. However, like Latinos, these voters are heavily concentrated in less competitive states such as California, New Mexico and Washington.
    As of right now, matching current demographics with the outcome and turnout of the 2012 election for each group results in a massive Democratic win in the electoral college with 332 votes and a 51.7% of the popular vote.
    ´
    “You need to help people. I know it's not very Republican to say but you need to help people.” DONALD TRUMP, 2016

  • #2
    Originally posted by Jonathanrex1 View Post
    I found this pretty cool infographic on the upcoming 2016 US Presidential Election. It's from 538. If you haven't heard of the site, it's the home of Nate Silver, the statistician that accurately predicted the 2012 results for every state.


    Here's how the infographic works:



    And the four main demographic groups they use:










    As of right now, matching current demographics with the outcome and turnout of the 2012 election for each group results in a massive Democratic win in the electoral college with 332 votes and a 51.7% of the popular vote.
    The infographic isn't forecasting anything. Those are the 2012 results.
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
      The infographic isn't forecasting anything. Those are the 2012 results.
      Applied to predicted 2016 voter demographics. So it is a forecast in a way.
      ´
      “You need to help people. I know it's not very Republican to say but you need to help people.” DONALD TRUMP, 2016

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Jonathanrex1 View Post
        Applied to predicted 2016 voter demographics. So it is a forecast in a way.
        No. It is the 2012 demographic breakdown and 2012 results.

        If people vote exactly as they did in 2012, the result in 2016 will be the same. No schist, Sherlock.

        The purpose of the tool is to see how shifts in demographic voting patterns can alter the election results.
        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
          No. It is the 2012 demographic breakdown and 2012 results.

          If people vote exactly as they did in 2012, the result in 2016 will be the same. No schist, Sherlock.

          The purpose of the tool is to see how shifts in demographic voting patterns can alter the election results.
          No different than much of the stuff you post about climate change. They are trends but not hard facts.
          "Ask not what your country can do for you"

          Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

          you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
            No different than much of the stuff you post about climate change. They are trends but not hard facts.
            Sort of. It's a model.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
              Sort of. It's a model.
              No different than a weather forecast or ice and snow or hurricanes forecast.
              "Ask not what your country can do for you"

              Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

              you’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                No different than a weather forecast or ice and snow or hurricanes forecast.
                Those actual forecasts. They are often based on models.

                The infographic from 538 is a model. You can use it to generate forecsts; however it's not a forecast. The baseline settings of the model are the demographic results from 2012.
                Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Jonathanrex1 View Post
                  It's from 538. If you haven't heard of the site, it's the home of Nate Silver, the statistician that accurately predicted the 2012 results for every state.
                  You are a VERY bad person bringing up Nate Silver around here. You're in Dean Chambers country here son! (insert Texas accent) Poor Doc just curls up into a ball at the mere mention of his name.

                  Now, take yer accurate & informed pollsters and git gone. Your kind ain't welcome round here.
                  Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by BF69 View Post
                    You are a VERY bad person bringing up Nate Silver around here. You're in Dean Chambers country here son! (insert Texas accent) Poor Doc just curls up into a ball at the mere mention of his name.

                    Now, take yer accurate & informed pollsters and git gone. Your kind ain't welcome round here.
                    I'm fairly certain that I've never criticized Nate Silver or his methodology.

                    This infographic is not a probablistic forecast (what Nate Silver does).
                    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                      I'm fairly certain that I've never criticized Nate Silver or his methodology.

                      This infographic is not a probablistic forecast (what Nate Silver does).
                      You make a great straight man Doc. Just keep playing that straight bat.

                      BTW, I do feel this election season has been sorely lacking in graphs. maybe you could do us a graph of the number of election related graphs you posted in 2008 & 2012 by the start of December. It just doesn't feel like there is really an election on until you crank up the machine.
                      Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BF69 View Post
                        You make a great straight man Doc. Just keep playing that straight bat.

                        BTW, I do feel this election season has been sorely lacking in graphs. maybe you could do us a graph of the number of election related graphs you posted in 2008 & 2012 by the start of December. It just doesn't feel like there is really an election on until you crank up the machine.
                        Show me where I criticized Nate Silver or his methodology...

                        Here's every post of mine mentioning "Nate Silver."

                        http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...archid=3159129

                        Not using the same methodology is not criticism of that methodology.
                        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                          Show me where I criticized Nate Silver or his methodology...

                          Here's every post of mine mentioning "Nate Silver."

                          http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...archid=3159129

                          Not using the same methodology is not criticism of that methodology.
                          Missing the point by a country mile Doc. Straw flying everywhere.
                          Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BF69 View Post
                            Missing the point by a country mile Doc. Straw flying everywhere.
                            This is unmitigated bull schist...

                            Originally posted by BF69 View Post
                            You are a VERY bad person bringing up Nate Silver around here. You're in Dean Chambers country here son! (insert Texas accent) Poor Doc just curls up into a ball at the mere mention of his name.

                            Now, take yer accurate & informed pollsters and git gone. Your kind ain't welcome round here.
                            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              If there are no more red herrings and/or strawmen from the left, let's take a look at the model...

                              If black voters vote like Hispanics (50% turnout, 75% Democrat) and non-college educated white voters turnout like college educated white voters (75% turnout, 62% Republican), the GOP candidate would win with 286 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote.

                              The Democrats are heavily dependent on getting more than 80% of the black and 60% of the Hispanic votes. If they won 71% of black and 59% of the Hispanic groups with 2012 turnout percentages, the GOP would win with 292 EV's.

                              The model is a decent heuristic tool. However, it's not a predictive tool like Nate Silver's probabilistic Bayesian analyses.
                              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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