Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Interesting Article in The Week on the GOP race

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Originally posted by Escape2Victory View Post
    We had a phenomenon in the recent UK election of the 'shy right'. Because the left are so poor at tolerating people who disagree with them and will vocally try and paint such people as social pariahs, many people did not express a more right wing preference until the privacy of the voting booth. The result was a right of centre government the polls had not predicted.
    The state of Kentucky had the same experience recently. The Democratic candidate was thought to be leading with slight margin for victory. On election day the Republican candidate won by 9%.

    With cell phones and caller I.D. I don't know how they can do an accurate poll today.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ernor-edition/
    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it" Beatrice Evelyn Hall
    Updated for the 21st century... except if you are criticizing islam, that scares the $hii+e out of me!

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by 17thfabn View Post
      The state of Kentucky had the same experience recently. The Democratic candidate was thought to be leading with slight margin for victory. On election day the Republican candidate won by 9%.

      With cell phones and caller I.D. I don't know how they can do an accurate poll today.


      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ernor-edition/
      Gallup is not even polling on any of the primaries candidates for that very reason. They don't believe they can get a good enough representative sample anymore.
      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
      “To talk of many things:
      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
      Of cabbages—and kings—
      And why the sea is boiling hot—
      And whether pigs have wings.”
      ― Lewis Carroll

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by 17thfabn View Post
        The state of Kentucky had the same experience recently. The Democratic candidate was thought to be leading with slight margin for victory. On election day the Republican candidate won by 9%.

        With cell phones and caller I.D. I don't know how they can do an accurate poll today.


        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ernor-edition/
        This came up on another thread.

        Polling in years when there isn't a Presidential poll is complicated by low turnout. Models are partially predicated on certain assumptions about who will actually vote & in what numbers. Additionally, in examples like Kentucky there were also very few polls, which made it difficult to survey a decent range.

        Presidential years are different. Turnout is higher and easier to calculate. Large numbers of polls are done and they are continuous. Any individual poll is untrustworthy. Sensibly aggregated polls can be extremely accurate. In 2012 the 'unskewed polls' crowd convinced themselves that many polling models were either deliberately or unintentionally skewed against the GOP - underestimating its vote. This was quite popular in conservative circles & had a few followers on ACG, though I'd be curious to see who would own up to it now. More scary, the people polling for Romney made some of the same assumptions. Oops.

        Meanwhile a sports statistician called Nate Silver was following polls religiously & aggregating them intelligently. While his record is not perfect when it comes to other races, he has called one state wrong in the last 2 elections (in 2008).

        So, don't write off polls. Political parties don't, and they are the ones who care most. Just read them sensibly and don't rely on one or two. Inevitably there will be a wide variance depending on methodology and random chance, but overall they can be used to great predictive effect.
        Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

        Comment


        • #19
          Also, don't automatically write off certain democrats who tend to side with folks like Trump and/or Carson.
          ARRRR! International Talk Like A Pirate Day - September 19th
          IN MARE IN COELO

          Comment

          Latest Topics

          Collapse

          Working...
          X