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Interesting Article in The Week on the GOP race

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  • Interesting Article in The Week on the GOP race

    http://theweek.com/articles/588261/w...-destroy-party

    For months now, the race for the Republican presidential nomination has actually been split into two races.
    The race for the establishment candidate, Sen Rubio, Mr Bush, Sen Cruz etc.

    This is the politicians' race.
    Then it's Trump and Mr Carson.

    You've also heard about the other Republican race, the populists' race.
    Interesting thoughts on the race. The conclusion:

    No longer can the politicians' race be conducted as if the populists' race doesn't exist. If today's Iowa and New Hampshire poll numbers look anything like the future results of those states' presidential contests, the bubbled existence of the politicians' race will be the greatest self-delusion in modern American politics. If they want to win, the leaders of the politicians' race need to actively push Trump and Carson out of their way and find a way to attract their supporters. If the politicians don't fight for their party, someone else might just wreck it for them.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

  • #2
    It's a largely irrelevant argument. The GOP won't be running against itself. It will be running against the Democrat party, and most likely Hillary, and certainly against a Progressive candidate.

    Progressivism represents about 20% of the electorate at most. Progressives to get elected in major campaigns have to essentially lie about who they are and what they want to do. The rest of the electorate isn't going to buy their party line.

    This is as true for hard Right Conservatives. But, their ideas tend to resonate better outside their own constituency than Progressive Leftist ideas do. For the Conservative candidate all they need do is tone down the rhetoric, not change the message.

    In this context, what the Republicans really need is a candidate that's willing to call a spade a spade. That is, a candidate that isn't afraid to say to their Democrat opponent "You're lying about your position! You want bigger government, more taxes, and more control over peoples lives!"

    That's why the establishment candidates in the GOP are running behind Trump and Carson. People intuitively get that Trump is unafraid to call his opponents out and say what he's thinking, right or wrong. Carson's message of being the outsider is likewise resonating with the public.
    Hillary's biggest challenge is she's seen as a Progressive, and a bald faced liar. But, she has to be to run as a Progressive.

    The media being more sympathetic to Progressives, missed this issue and even if they haven't are ignoring it for the most part.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
      It's a largely irrelevant argument. The GOP won't be running against itself. It will be running against the Democrat party, and most likely Hillary, and certainly against a Progressive candidate.

      Progressivism represents about 20% of the electorate at most. Progressives to get elected in major campaigns have to essentially lie about who they are and what they want to do. The rest of the electorate isn't going to buy their party line.

      This is as true for hard Right Conservatives. But, their ideas tend to resonate better outside their own constituency than Progressive Leftist ideas do. For the Conservative candidate all they need do is tone down the rhetoric, not change the message.

      In this context, what the Republicans really need is a candidate that's willing to call a spade a spade. That is, a candidate that isn't afraid to say to their Democrat opponent "You're lying about your position! You want bigger government, more taxes, and more control over peoples lives!"

      That's why the establishment candidates in the GOP are running behind Trump and Carson. People intuitively get that Trump is unafraid to call his opponents out and say what he's thinking, right or wrong. Carson's message of being the outsider is likewise resonating with the public.
      Hillary's biggest challenge is she's seen as a Progressive, and a bald faced liar. But, she has to be to run as a Progressive.

      The media being more sympathetic to Progressives, missed this issue and even if they haven't are ignoring it for the most part.
      Where did you get those numbers?

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
        Where did you get those numbers?
        Two seconds of research and you'd know...

        Here's one source and even though they conflate Progressive with Liberal even they admit only 16% are really Progressive.

        http://thinkprogress.org/politics/20...ressive-study/

        Two new studies (here and here) conducted by the Progressive Studies Program at the Center for American Progress break down the electorate on a new 5-point scale of political ideology that reflects the primary approaches people ascribe to today. Under this schematic, 34 percent of the country self-identifies as ‘conservative’, 29 percent as ‘moderate’, 15 percent as ‘liberal’, 16 percent as ‘progressive’, and 2 percent as ‘libertarian’.
        Emphasis mine.

        That has been the percentage (less than 20%) for decades. I used the number I did because I wanted to give a general feel for the proportion of Americans who are on the Left rather than some hard and fast number as it does go up and down some over time.

        Even Progressive sources admit it...

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
          It's a largely irrelevant argument. The GOP won't be running against itself. It will be running against the Democrat party, and most likely Hillary, and certainly against a Progressive candidate.

          Progressivism represents about 20% of the electorate at most. Progressives to get elected in major campaigns have to essentially lie about who they are and what they want to do. The rest of the electorate isn't going to buy their party line.

          This is as true for hard Right Conservatives. But, their ideas tend to resonate better outside their own constituency than Progressive Leftist ideas do. For the Conservative candidate all they need do is tone down the rhetoric, not change the message.

          In this context, what the Republicans really need is a candidate that's willing to call a spade a spade. That is, a candidate that isn't afraid to say to their Democrat opponent "You're lying about your position! You want bigger government, more taxes, and more control over peoples lives!"

          That's why the establishment candidates in the GOP are running behind Trump and Carson. People intuitively get that Trump is unafraid to call his opponents out and say what he's thinking, right or wrong. Carson's message of being the outsider is likewise resonating with the public.
          Hillary's biggest challenge is she's seen as a Progressive, and a bald faced liar. But, she has to be to run as a Progressive.

          The media being more sympathetic to Progressives, missed this issue and even if they haven't are ignoring it for the most part.
          Yes, it is, in actuality, i.e. the primary/caucus season is literally a series of elections, and for what direction the GOP moves in over the next couple years.

          Yes, that is what the GOP needs, to attract voters such as yourself. Not so much for the middle of the road electorate that determines the end result.
          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
          “To talk of many things:
          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
          Of cabbages—and kings—
          And why the sea is boiling hot—
          And whether pigs have wings.”
          ― Lewis Carroll

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
            Yes, it is, in actuality, i.e. the primary/caucus season is literally a series of elections, and for what direction the GOP moves in over the next couple years.

            Yes, that is what the GOP needs, to attract voters such as yourself. Not so much for the middle of the road electorate that determines the end result.
            Well, just remember that the GOP will lose if they're not "conservative enough".

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
              Two seconds of research and you'd know...

              Here's one source and even though they conflate Progressive with Liberal even they admit only 16% are really Progressive.

              http://thinkprogress.org/politics/20...ressive-study/



              Emphasis mine.

              That has been the percentage (less than 20%) for decades. I used the number I did because I wanted to give a general feel for the proportion of Americans who are on the Left rather than some hard and fast number as it does go up and down some over time.

              Even Progressive sources admit it...
              The links to the CAP studies are broken.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                Yes, it is, in actuality, i.e. the primary/caucus season is literally a series of elections, and for what direction the GOP moves in over the next couple years.

                Yes, that is what the GOP needs, to attract voters such as yourself. Not so much for the middle of the road electorate that determines the end result.
                They won't attract a voter like me in primary season. I'm an Independent and have been for decades. I don't vote in their primary.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                  The race for the establishment candidate, Sen Rubio, Mr Bush, Sen Cruz etc.
                  Bush yes but when did Rubio and Cruz become establishment? They made their names challenging the Bushes, Boehners and Romneys of the party. I guess you could say that they're "establishment" because they're members of Congress but they haven't even been there for all that long.
                  "Artillery lends dignity to what might otherwise be a vulgar brawl." - Frederick the Great

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'm looking forward to seeing actual results from the primaries and caucuses .

                    I think Trump won't get as many votes as polls suggest. I think many of the people telling pollsters they will vote for Trump in the primaries and caucuses, will actually not vote in them.
                    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it" Beatrice Evelyn Hall
                    Updated for the 21st century... except if you are criticizing islam, that scares the $hii+e out of me!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                      They won't attract a voter like me in primary season. I'm an Independent and have been for decades. I don't vote in their primary.
                      Are you one of those "I'm an independent but I've voted for the GOP candidate in every of the last ten elections" sort of independents?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                        Are you one of those "I'm an independent but I've voted for the GOP candidate in every of the last ten elections" sort of independents?
                        No, I've voted for Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates too. I've also voted for Democrats for local offices. One in particular is Sheriff. I really dislike Joe (Joke) Arpaio, the perennial Republican candidate.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
                          Well, just remember that the GOP will lose if they're not "conservative enough".
                          Which is exactly what happened in the past.
                          The very recent past.
                          "Why is the Rum gone?"

                          -Captain Jack

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by 17thfabn View Post
                            I'm looking forward to seeing actual results from the primaries and caucuses .

                            I think Trump won't get as many votes as polls suggest. I think many of the people telling pollsters they will vote for Trump in the primaries and caucuses, will actually not vote in them.
                            You might be right. However we had a phenomenon in the recent UK election of the 'shy right'. Because the left are so poor at tolerating people who disagree with them and will vocally try and paint such people as social pariahs, many people did not express a more right wing preference until the privacy of the voting booth. The result was a right of centre government the polls had not predicted.
                            Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by frisco17 View Post
                              Bush yes but when did Rubio and Cruz become establishment? They made their names challenging the Bushes, Boehners and Romneys of the party. I guess you could say that they're "establishment" because they're members of Congress but they haven't even been there for all that long.
                              LIFE time politicans = establishment. What do you think they'd done for almost all their adult life?

                              You can chant all you want about the establishment but when they have been your primary source of income, you're part of them.
                              “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                              “To talk of many things:
                              Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                              Of cabbages—and kings—
                              And why the sea is boiling hot—
                              And whether pigs have wings.”
                              ― Lewis Carroll

                              Comment

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