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State of the Presidential Race now that Labor day is over

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  • State of the Presidential Race now that Labor day is over

    Starting with GOP(using Real Clear Politics averages of latest polls):

    27.8 Trump
    13.5 Carson
    9.3 Bush
    6.8 Rubio
    6.5 Cruz
    5.5 Fiorina
    5.5 Walker
    4.5 Kasich
    4.0 Huckabee
    2.8 Christie
    2.8 Paul
    1.3 Perry
    1.0 Santorum
    0.0 Jindal
    0.0 Graham

    I definitely underestimated Trump. In a major way. He's tapped into a "anyone but an establishment politician" movement. More Populist than conservative. However when you break down his numbers he has support across the spectrum of the GOP primary voters/caucuses attendees.

    Same for Dr Carson. He has been on a steady upward trend since the first GOP debate.

    If everyone below Gov Kasich were to drop out, that would only generate 12+ points for those that remain, not even enough to push Dr Carson, Jeb Bush or Sen Rubio over Trump.

    Biggest surprise for me, besides Trump, is the poor numbers for Gov Walker. Really thought he would be a top contender.

    Dems.

    49.3 Clinton
    23.8 Sanders
    16.0 Biden
    2.3 O'Malley
    1.8 Webb
    0.8 Chafee

    No surprises here. Sen Sanders has surged in Iowa and New Hampshire however, could make the first two contest interesting. After that Mrs Clinton will beat him up in SC and then the March 1 super South Primary day.

    That is without the VP Biden factor. If he jumps in it might be interesting. Otherwise the Dem race will go as predicted.
    “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
    “To talk of many things:
    Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
    Of cabbages—and kings—
    And why the sea is boiling hot—
    And whether pigs have wings.”
    ― Lewis Carroll

  • #2
    I have been surprised at Sander's support too, but Hillary is awful on campaign.
    The more people see of her, the less they seem to like her.

    People could rally around Bill Clinton or Obama, because both of them have charm. Hillary has negative charm when it comes to crowds.

    Biden wouldn't be entering the race if she weren't getting weaker.
    Added to that, I do think Obama is trying to support Biden.
    I think that BO's recent paid vacation announcement was an appeal to labor on Biden's behalf.
    Avatar is General Gerard, courtesy of Zouave.

    Churchill to Chamberlain: you had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post
      I have been surprised at Sander's support too, but Hillary is awful on campaign.
      The more people see of her, the less they seem to like her.

      People could rally around Bill Clinton or Obama, because both of them have charm. Hillary has negative charm when it comes to crowds.

      Biden wouldn't be entering the race if she weren't getting weaker.
      Added to that, I do think Obama is trying to support Biden.
      I think that BO's recent paid vacation announcement was an appeal to labor on Biden's behalf.
      I think VP Biden will be looking if he can put together an organization on the fly, lots of Dem campaign talent is already committed to Mrs Clinton. He has to be able to compete in SC and then on the March 1 Super South primary day. If he thinks he can do that, I think he will jump in. If not he'll say the Family is not ready for this effort in the wake of his oldest son's death.
      “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
      “To talk of many things:
      Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
      Of cabbages—and kings—
      And why the sea is boiling hot—
      And whether pigs have wings.”
      ― Lewis Carroll

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
        I think VP Biden will be looking if he can put together an organization on the fly, lots of Dem campaign talent is already committed to Mrs Clinton. He has to be able to compete in SC and then on the March 1 Super South primary day. If he thinks he can do that, I think he will jump in. If not he'll say the Family is not ready for this effort in the wake of his oldest son's death.
        It will depend on whether or not Biden believes he has the emotional strength to run. I think he's really sincere about this aspect.
        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Cambronnne View Post
          I have been surprised at Sander's support too, but Hillary is awful on campaign.
          The more people see of her, the less they seem to like her.

          People could rally around Bill Clinton or Obama, because both of them have charm. Hillary has negative charm when it comes to crowds.

          Biden wouldn't be entering the race if she weren't getting weaker.
          Added to that, I do think Obama is trying to support Biden.
          I think that BO's recent paid vacation announcement was an appeal to labor on Biden's behalf.
          Sanders and Trump have comparable support levels. The only reason Trump is leading, so far, is that there are so many other candidates.

          Trump has to be able to elevate his game above populist rhetoric to become a real contender.
          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
            S[...]
            I definitely underestimated Trump. In a major way. He's tapped into a "anyone but an establishment politician" movement. More Populist than conservative. However when you break down his numbers he has support across the spectrum of the GOP primary voters/caucuses attendees.

            Same for Dr Carson. He has been on a steady upward trend since the first GOP debate.

            [...]

            Biggest surprise for me, besides Trump, is the poor numbers for Gov Walker. Really thought he would be a top contender.

            [...]

            No surprises here. Sen Sanders has surged in Iowa and New Hampshire however, could make the first two contest interesting. After that Mrs Clinton will beat him up in SC and then the March 1 super South Primary day.

            That is without the VP Biden factor. If he jumps in it might be interesting. Otherwise the Dem race will go as predicted.
            The prospect of Bush vs Clinton has really juiced up support for "outsiders." This could be the most interesting election since 1992.

            Walker is pulling a Giuliani/Thompson... He's a great candidate on paper. Bill James would have already sworn him into office.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
              It will depend on whether or not Biden believes he has the emotional strength to run. I think he's really sincere about this aspect.
              I agree, however despite all the pokes about him and that he is not bright etc (wrong by the way) he is a very savvy Politician. He understands what he needs to do and just how little time he would have to do it. It's a monumental task, one that would draw him away from his family during this hard time.

              I'm thinking he'll not run... of course I thought Trump would be at the bottom by now... so take my ideas with a grain of salt.
              “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
              “To talk of many things:
              Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
              Of cabbages—and kings—
              And why the sea is boiling hot—
              And whether pigs have wings.”
              ― Lewis Carroll

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                The prospect of Bush vs Clinton has really juiced up support for "outsiders." This could be the most interesting election since 1992.

                Walker is pulling a Giuliani/Thompson... He's a great candidate on paper. Bill James would have already sworn him into office.
                He'd really fired up Iowa back in the early spring... after that he never really capitalized on anything.... I think he suffered the most from the rise of Trump, more so than Mr Bush and Sen Rubio even.
                “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                “To talk of many things:
                Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                Of cabbages—and kings—
                And why the sea is boiling hot—
                And whether pigs have wings.”
                ― Lewis Carroll

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                  I agree, however despite all the pokes about him and that he is not bright etc (wrong by the way) he is a very savvy Politician. He understands what he needs to do and just how little time he would have to do it. It's a monumental task, one that would draw him away from his family during this hard time.

                  I'm thinking he'll not run... of course I thought Trump would be at the bottom by now... so take my ideas with a grain of salt.
                  Right now, his heart isn't in it. Maybe that will change. As it stands right now, I think he would easily win the Dem nomination.
                  Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Combat Engineer View Post
                    He'd really fired up Iowa back in the early spring... after that he never really capitalized on anything.... I think he suffered the most from the rise of Trump, more so than Mr Bush and Sen Rubio even.
                    Yep. He also seems to be having difficulty putting out a clear, concise reason to vote for him.
                    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      If the republican/democratic candidates were to debate each other today, just take the two front runners in both parties and have them debate,
                      Who would you think would come out on top?
                      Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Urban hermit View Post
                        If the republican/democratic candidates were to debate each other today, just take the two front runners in both parties and have them debate,
                        Who would you think would come out on top?
                        Taking Trump and Ms Clinton as the top, Ms Clinton in an easy win. Trump will start having trouble in debates as soon as the field gets down too 4 or less. More time for more detailed questions that he will have no chance to answer without seeming the fool. Look at his radio interview with Iowa Conservative powerhouse Hugh Hewitt. Total fail. Trump punts and calls him names in tweets... About all he can do.
                        “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                        “To talk of many things:
                        Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                        Of cabbages—and kings—
                        And why the sea is boiling hot—
                        And whether pigs have wings.”
                        ― Lewis Carroll

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          The above applies no matter who the Dem nominee would be. The Key is Trump in a detailed 'debate' on policy and solutions... Remember also that the final two party debates are NOT really debates, they never have been. They are long detailed press interviews with the other candidate getting to reply also.
                          “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                          “To talk of many things:
                          Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                          Of cabbages—and kings—
                          And why the sea is boiling hot—
                          And whether pigs have wings.”
                          ― Lewis Carroll

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                            It will depend on whether or not Biden believes he has the emotional strength to run. I think he's really sincere about this aspect.
                            This post really stands out considering the heartfelt interview between VP Biden and Stephen Colbert on the CBS Late Show.

                            http://www.politico.com/story/2015/0...colbert-213528
                            “The time has come,” the Walrus said,
                            “To talk of many things:
                            Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
                            Of cabbages—and kings—
                            And why the sea is boiling hot—
                            And whether pigs have wings.”
                            ― Lewis Carroll

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I wonder how many people will just vote against trump. I really dislike him and think that he's just trying to spoil the election.

                              As a veteran I like Bernie and his track record. As a conservative I'd like my party to put a candidate up that is a real conservative. Carson I could vote for. But no more clintons or bushes. I'm really sick of both of those families...

                              I'd really like to see Rand Paul give it a go, but that seems like its not happening...
                              Credo quia absurdum.


                              Quantum mechanics describes nature as absurd from the point of view of common sense. And yet it fully agrees with experiment. So I hope you can accept nature as She is - absurd! - Richard Feynman

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