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  • Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post

    Saying the Liberals lost the popular vote is accurate but doesn't take into account the reality of the Canadian political scene. The centrist left vote was split between 4 parties: Liberals, BQ, NDP, and Green The right/conservative vote was split between two parties Conservatives and Maxime Bernier"s PPC

    Here are the numbers of votes cast for each party with percentages:
    Liberals 5,915,590 33.1 %
    Conservatives 6,155,662 34.4%
    BQ 1,376,135 7.7 %
    NDP 2,849,214 15.9 %
    Green 1,162, 361 6.5%
    Independent 75,836 .4%

    So I'm going to be generous and say that all the independents voted PPC and place them as right leaning.
    That gives the Conservatives and the PPC 6,231,498 votes (34.8% of the pop vote)
    Adding up the other parties (left and centrist) gives you 11,303,300 (63.2% of pop vote)

    So by a large margin Canadians voted for parties that were not aligned or thought of as having a social conservative aspect. And this was in election in which the incumbent PM had made serious missteps and had major baggage going into the election. However, there is no clear way to determine the spread of 'protest' votes against the Liberals that went to other parties including the Conservatives so again I'll be generous and say everyone who voted Conservative is a loyal party member and will vote the same in the next election no matter what.

    If this pattern holds, and there isn't any reason why it shouldn't, if the Conservatives elect another social conservative as leader, the best they can hope for is a minority government.

    Harper understood this and tamped down the SC message from his party when he was running. And in subsquent years Canadians as whole are becoming overall less receptive to SC messaging.

    This is the reality of Canadian politics. Some Conservatives get this, some don't. The Conservatives as a single party won the popular vote but holding this up as a reason to stay the course and not make any changes ignores Trudeau's baggage and the reality of vote distribution. A party interested in forming a government cannot ignore this.

    I'll be interested to see what John Baird's final report says and his recommendations.
    Scheers social conservative beliefs are blown out of proportion as to why he lost the East as he wasn’t pushing them much on his agenda the Turd friendly media piled on him for that but he just wasn’t a great candidate everyone was disappointed with him including Conservative voters
    If someone like Brad Wall,Rona Ambrose or Michelle Rempel were the candidate the Conservatives would most likely have at least a minority government now as they don’t have shy mouse like personalities and look like a Howdy Doody doll
    But that might be mute by next election as there will be a Western separation party in place to take away a lot of Conservative votes out West keeping Canada f.!,ed economically by the Turd for even longer
    Last edited by Snowshoveler; 16 Dec 19, 10:58.

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    • Originally posted by Snowshoveler View Post

      The Liberals lost the popular vote a social conservative with more charisma and backbone can win more Eastern votes next time like Harper already did
      The Liberals lost the popular vote. Progressive leaning parties did not.

      There was a post-election poll that told the whole story of the election. I believe the poll was actually intended to forecast the result if there had been a ranked ballot system in place, so it asked for 2nd, 3rd choices, etc. The CPC ranked dead last as 2nd choice across the country outside of Alberta/Saskatchewan. The conclusion was that the CPC did a good job of reaching its base, which is hardly surprising given their only other choice was Bernier, but failed utterly to lure votes beyond that. Given how bad a year Trudeau had in 2019, Scheer really did "miss the open net" as Mackay quipped. The uncomfortable truth is: So did the CPC.

      As I said, the Liberals will be overjoyed if the CPC elects another social conservative as their leader. As far as the majority of Canadians are concerned those issues are off the table.

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      • Originally posted by DingBat View Post

        The Liberals lost the popular vote. Progressive leaning parties did not.

        There was a post-election poll that told the whole story of the election. I believe the poll was actually intended to forecast the result if there had been a ranked ballot system in place, so it asked for 2nd, 3rd choices, etc. The CPC ranked dead last as 2nd choice across the country outside of Alberta/Saskatchewan. The conclusion was that the CPC did a good job of reaching its base, which is hardly surprising given their only other choice was Bernier, but failed utterly to lure votes beyond that. Given how bad a year Trudeau had in 2019, Scheer really did "miss the open net" as Mackay quipped. The uncomfortable truth is: So did the CPC.

        As I said, the Liberals will be overjoyed if the CPC elects another social conservative as their leader. As far as the majority of Canadians are concerned those issues are off the table.
        Nope he was a bad candidate because of his uninspiring personality another candidate with mild social conservative views like he and Harper had can win enough votes out East and keep Quebec politically isolated once again
        Last edited by Snowshoveler; 16 Dec 19, 11:37.

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        • What the blankity blank is going on with the indians and the railroads ? I am out of the country and i am just picking up bits and pieces.

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          • Originally posted by bill shack View Post
            What the blankity blank is going on with the indians and the railroads ? I am out of the country and i am just picking up bits and pieces.
            Fear not. Rest easy. Our great hereditary chief is on the case...
            The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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            • And the pathetic feeble joke of a government continues to let Canada dissolve as if Canada wasn’t broken with PM Cinderella strangling and neglecting Western Canada’s economy already his weak no response to the rail blockades encourages even more disruption by protesters and terrorists

              Sunny ways indeed!

              78D72451-BD05-4FFE-AF21-815A8CFB2C8B.jpegD568A7C5-0AFC-46B0-B2B9-A9F1C7B8C839.jpeg

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