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Global Warming More Moderate Than Worst-Case Models

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  • Global Warming More Moderate Than Worst-Case Models

    DURHAM, N.C. – A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    […]

    The team examined whether climate models, such as those used by the IPCC, accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming as a result of interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors.

    To test how accurate climate models are at accounting for variations in the rate of warming, Brown and Li, along with colleagues from San Jose State University and the USDA, created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years.

    “By comparing our model against theirs, we found that climate models largely get the ‘big picture’ right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles,” Brown said. “Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013.”
    https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/globa...st-case-models

    Looks like they have to find some way to explain the cold winters the NE and Middle of the country have had the last couple of winters. Right now we are running about 15 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year in St Louis area and I heard them talking about snow in higher elevations in NE night before last on weather.
    Homo homini lupus

  • #2
    I hate it when people panic and then nothing catastrophic happens after all.

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