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  • National Weather Service Apologizes for Bad Forecast.

    The National Weather Service has issued an apology for way overstating the storm in the New York City metro area. CNBC link attached, followed by excerpt. Now, I'm not the world's greatest engineer or scientist, if i was I would probably still be working as an engineer, but I wondered how both NYC and Boston could have END OF LIFE AS WE KNOW IT storms - after all, they are about 200 miles away.

    Boston forecast about right - about 14 inches so far here in Peabody and Boston proper - Worcester area the worst - 25 inches or so two hours ago.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102371281#.

    excerpt
    Have you lost confidence in weather forecasters because of the busted blizzard?

    Yes
    No
    Not sure

    Vote Vote to see results



    Whoops.
    For most of New York and New Jersey, what was supposed to be the Blizzard of 2015 turned into the Bust of the Century instead.
    Read MoreLive: Blizzard bears down on Boston
    As the sun rose Monday, there were forecasts that New York City and northern New Jersey could conceivably see 24 to 36 inches of snow from a storm described as "crippling" and "historic."
    By sunrise Tuesday, Central Park had only 6.3 inches of snow, with the National Weather Service acknowledging there might as little as 2 more inches on the way. Parts of New Jersey that had been in line for as much as 18 inches ended up with as little as 3 inches.


    Gary Szatkowski, the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's office in Mt. Holly, New Jersey, stunned people in the wee hours Tuesday with a heartfelt apology for the blown forecast.

    --------
    from weather.com, excerpt of mayor's warning

    http://www.weather.com/storms/winter...cticut-impacts

    excerpt
    Governors in five states Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island have declared states of emergency in advance of Winter Storm Juno, a storm that threatens to bury communities in tri-state area with more than 2 feet of snow and bring heavy sustained winds that may cause power outages and make travel hazardous.
    New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio ordered all non-essential drivers off the city's roads after 11 p.m. Monday and announced that the city's schools would officially close Tuesday because of forecast impacts.
    (MORE: Juno: The Latest Forecast)
    "This will most likely be one of the largest blizzards in the history of New York City," de Blasio said, NBC News reported, as The National Weather Service's blizzard warning took effect at 1 p.m. EST.
    Last edited by lakechampainer; 27 Jan 15, 08:16.

  • #2
    Originally posted by lakechampainer View Post
    The National Weather Service has issued an apology for way overstating the storm in the New York City metro area. CNBC link attached, followed by excerpt. Now, I'm not the world's greatest engineer or scientist, if i was I would probably still be working as an engineer, but I wondered how both NYC and Boston could have END OF LIFE AS WE KNOW IT storms - after all, they are about 200 miles away.

    Boston forecast about right - about 14 inches so far here in Peabody and Boston proper - Worcester area the worst - 25 inches or so two hours ago.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102371281#.

    excerpt
    Have you lost confidence in weather forecasters because of the busted blizzard?

    Yes
    No
    Not sure

    Vote Vote to see results



    Whoops.
    For most of New York and New Jersey, what was supposed to be the Blizzard of 2015 turned into the Bust of the Century instead.
    Read MoreLive: Blizzard bears down on Boston
    As the sun rose Monday, there were forecasts that New York City and northern New Jersey could conceivably see 24 to 36 inches of snow from a storm described as "crippling" and "historic."
    By sunrise Tuesday, Central Park had only 6.3 inches of snow, with the National Weather Service acknowledging there might as little as 2 more inches on the way. Parts of New Jersey that had been in line for as much as 18 inches ended up with as little as 3 inches.

    Gary Szatkowski, the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's office in Mt. Holly, New Jersey, stunned people in the wee hours Tuesday with a heartfelt apology for the blown forecast.

    Yes. Good thread topic. I am SO SICK of the Weather Channel terrorizing us!! I have GOT to find a way out of the future: prediction is such a fool's game.

    Here in Maryland our county emergency coordinator called everyone on the telephone and said we were in for 5 to 8 or more inches, beware, beware.

    Nothing, nothing, maybe half an inch, the roads were not just clear but DRY when I headed up to a wool-spinning meeting ------ only two of us showed up and we couldn't get into the church; so obvious was it that Life As We Know It would be cancelled that nobody else bothered to show up or call or anything.

    This whole over-prediction of dire weather is of a piece with the terrible degeneration of news media, raking over the world's yucky bits to find stories of babies born without eyes (yesterday) that they can lure stupid people into clicking on.

    News including weather has to be lurid, over-awful, not even true, and global so as to harvest the most click-worthy horrorshows. This is all pretty awful and I HATE it.

    Comment


    • #3
      Tuesday is my normal day off, so no big deal for me. I was however looking forward to playing in my Jeep. Three inches instead of eighteen. Oh well.

      It seems like the more they rely on computers the worse off they are. Go back to using your brain, Mr. Meteorologist. I wonder if D-Day would have happened if the Allies relied on computer models?

      I wonder what the economic impact of this screw up will be on NJ? There's a lot of folks losing a day's pay for no reason.
      ALL LIVES SPLATTER!

      BLACK JEEPS MATTER!

      BLACK MOTORCYCLES MATTER!

      Comment


      • #4
        And all those airports closed and flights cancelled, hundred and thousands cancelled, the news said yesterday!

        They all look pretty silly now.

        Needs thought. Older people are used to decades of reading daily news and weather reports. Obviously, the news and weather has gone bad now. The weather predicts the end of the world every three or four days, and the news is sensationalist crap from some village in Bangladesh, and who could even find Bangladesh on a map?

        There has to be a way off this treadmill. I don't want to hear any news unless it's three days old; I don't want to read what happens until there is a book out on it, something like that.

        Comment


        • #5
          Have you lost confidence in weather forecasters because of the busted blizzard?

          Yes
          No
          Not sure

          No. Snowfall is one of the most difficult elements of weather forecasting.

          Unfortunately, the bureaucrats at NOAA, politicians and the media insist on hyping weather events for political reasons and/or ratings.

          The professional meteorologists adequately forecasted a major Nor'Easter and provided ample warnings to people in potentially affected areas.
          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

          Comment


          • #6
            Say Phebe you might try this as you surf.

            http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldserviceradio

            It's more like the old school news reporting, not much fear mongering...
            Credo quia absurdum.


            Quantum mechanics describes nature as absurd from the point of view of common sense. And yet it fully agrees with experiment. So I hope you can accept nature as She is - absurd! - Richard Feynman

            Comment


            • #7
              Thanks, Bwaha.

              Some boring media does help, The Economist, the Wall Street Journal, BBC, like that.

              I'm thinking of radical solutions, like a Month With No News.

              Or Weather! But my husband is a weather addict, his favorite channel is the Weather Channel and he gives me updates several times a day.

              All wrong, as a rule, but people love predictions: it never seems to matter if they are wrong.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by lakechampainer View Post
                The National Weather Service has issued an apology for way overstating the storm in the New York City metro area. CNBC link attached, followed by excerpt. Now, I'm not the world's greatest engineer or scientist, if i was I would probably still be working as an engineer, but I wondered how both NYC and Boston could have END OF LIFE AS WE KNOW IT storms - after all, they are about 200 miles away.

                [...].
                The "White Hurricane of 1978" comes to mind...



                Four days of endless Risk games, beer drinking and snowball fights on the SCSU campus...
                Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Weather prediction here in Colorado is a standing joke. The other joke is that if you don't like the weather, wait a few minutes and it will change!

                  We go by the weather history for our area for a given time of year, the direction of the winds - up-slope = very bad - and by the predictions of the local farmers and ranchers who are right far more often than any "meteorologist".

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Phebe View Post
                    Thanks, Bwaha.

                    Some boring media does help, The Economist, the Wall Street Journal, BBC, like that.

                    I'm thinking of radical solutions, like a Month With No News.

                    Or Weather! But my husband is a weather addict, his favorite channel is the Weather Channel and he gives me updates several times a day.

                    All wrong, as a rule, but people love predictions: it never seems to matter if they are wrong.
                    Try telling him about the Science Chanel. http://www.sciencechannel.com/

                    I did a experiment about commercials and stations, turns out the channels that have calm, intelligent, (Yeah right) commercials are vectored to those less likely to respond to being yelled at.

                    Note that fox constantly is screaming at you, both in the ads and the shows...

                    Very low brow programing meant to frighten you into buying crap you don't need. (IMO)
                    Credo quia absurdum.


                    Quantum mechanics describes nature as absurd from the point of view of common sense. And yet it fully agrees with experiment. So I hope you can accept nature as She is - absurd! - Richard Feynman

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Bwaha View Post
                      Try telling him about the Science Chanel. http://www.sciencechannel.com/

                      I did a experiment about commercials and stations, turns out the channels that have calm, intelligent, (Yeah right) commercials are vectored to those less likely to respond to being yelled at.

                      Note that fox constantly is screaming at you, both in the ads and the shows...

                      Very low brow programing meant to frighten you into buying crap you don't need. (IMO)
                      Seriously? Then what is the goal of the channels that advertise for feminine products,accident lawyers and life insurance companies?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                        Seriously? Then what is the goal of the channels that advertise for feminine products,accident lawyers and life insurance companies?
                        Seriously MM. Spend a couple of hours there then contrast that with the fare that the news media dishes out.

                        It's why I opted out of broadcast news. I really don't like being screamed at.

                        I'd like to shoot the guy who came up with the geico pig...
                        Credo quia absurdum.


                        Quantum mechanics describes nature as absurd from the point of view of common sense. And yet it fully agrees with experiment. So I hope you can accept nature as She is - absurd! - Richard Feynman

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Arn't these the same guys who attempt to scare us with Global Warming scenarios and cant even preduct the weather for later on this week.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I stopped treating a weather forecaster's word as gospel when they started naming every little snow event like they do hurricanes.

                            Oh, and when a local one claimed he got it right after the fact when I know damned well he said otherwise earlier. They're starting to brag about their accuracy around these parts which is laughable.

                            Actually...I don't think I ever really thought the forecasters were accurate.
                            The First Amendment applies to SMS, Emails, Blogs, online news, the Fourth applies to your cell phone, computer, and your car, but the Second only applies to muskets?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I wish I had a job where I could be right 10% of the time...after forecasting less than 100% chance!

                              #occupyarmchairgeneral.
                              Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true. Demosthenes.
                              Against logic there is no armor like ignorance. Laurence J. Peter

                              Comment

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