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  • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
    Why?

    That is only assuming fx Norway had the same contacts with the abroad as Sweden had. With the exact same virus-load in both places at the same time.

    Or rather assuming fx Oslo and Stockholm had the exact same contacts, frequency and volume, in the first months of 2020.

    Because "Sweden" here means primarily Stockholm and environs.

    There were fx 1 million Swedes traveling abroad in the first months of 2020, but only 0,1 million Norwegians.

    Genetic tracing had established that while everyone was screening for the virus with travelers from China, Iran and the Alps early in 2020, in Sweden the virus established itself with travelers from London, NY and Paris. Geographical proximity on the map is not the whole story of how countries interact in this globalized world.

    So, no, on balance Sweden is probably not like Norway or Finland. Greater Stockholm however has been a VERY close match with London, Paris or New York.

    Based on what evidence greater Stockholm has been a very close match with London, Paris and NYC and how do you transfer any similarity you see in the biggest citied of countries to a national level ?

    As I have shown, math shows clearly that Sweden has a lower population weighted density than Denmark and way below UK's

    Again from a previous post


    The study I posted in the previous page shows in numbers what you are saying by using the population-weighted density. The chart shows how Sweden is well below the UK on that factor which means that on average the density a randomly chosen individual experiences in Sweden is below the density that a randomly chosen individual is experiencing in the UK

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.01167.pdf

    Also, if you want to use living population density (counting only non-empty land but not weighted) again Sweden is below Denmark and wayyyyy below the UK

    From Table A at the end showing lived (or non-empty) population density ρN
    and population-weighted density or ρW among different countries in Europe.
    ρW expresses the red part above

    Sweden: ρN=84, ρW=2246

    UK: ρN=478, ρW=4265

    Denmark ρN=183, ρW=2761

    France ρN=195, ρW=3590

    and let's not talk about Greece (and Athens) which for some reason (guess which) did not become UK or Sweden despite the fact that Athens is a very densely populated city and on TOP of that it has 50% of the Greek population (this is why you see a very high Greek weighted population density ρW=5654)

    Greece ρN=379, ρW=5654



    So, while one can argue that Sweden can't be compared to Norway and Finland because of the population distribution pattern (both Norway and Finland have lower ρW ), it just does not make sense to say this about the other Scandinavian country (Denmark) and there is no sense to say similarly thing about the UK , France or NY.

    Notice that the state of NY (Table C) has ρN=162, ρW=9,371

    I have posted this numerous times and the fact that you (and others on your side) have not challenged it means either that you ignore data that counter your invalid comparisons, or that you are not sure about what these data show. The second can be fixed if you actually read the link I provided, and if you have any questions, I can clarify them for you. Obviously if it is the first, it a matter of your personal choice and I can do nothing about it.
    Last edited by pamak; 18 Oct 20, 08:53.
    My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
      Just out of curiosity, how many of us posters here have had the virus?

      I'm asking, since I am one of those who got a mild case of it back i April.
      Not me, and I do not know any in close family having it. I have known a person at work who got it
      My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
        Just out of curiosity, how many of us posters here have had the virus?

        I'm asking, since I am one of those who got a mild case of it back i April.
        Been fortunate not to have had it.

        Due to visiting a LTC facility, I've been tested mulitiple times and still negative .

        I have friends and colleagues who've had it. Some serious, some not. Two of them are "long haul" Covid cases. No deaths so far. Due to my previous work history, I have many friends who are front line health care workers and also researchers and epidemiologists. They've been an excellent source of information and direction on useful articles and trends.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
          Why?
          Geography, climate and culture.

          ...
          So, no, on balance Sweden is probably not like Norway or Finland. Greater Stockholm however has been a VERY close match with London, Paris or New York.
          Greater Stockholm is about 2.4 millions out of 10 millions around 1/5.
          Oslo is 700.000 out of 5.5 millions around 1/6.

          Sweden has twice population of Norway.
          UK has 6 time population of Sweden.
          Greater London is around 8.9 millions that is close to Sweden total population.

          Unlike Sweden, UK count several city/major city outside London like Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Newcastle, Edinburgh...

          Population wise, Sweden is still closer to Norway than UK.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Metryll View Post

            Geography, climate and culture.



            Greater Stockholm is about 2.4 millions out of 10 millions around 1/5.
            Oslo is 700.000 out of 5.5 millions around 1/6.

            Sweden has twice population of Norway.
            UK has 6 time population of Sweden.
            Greater London is around 8.9 millions that is close to Sweden total population.

            Unlike Sweden, UK count several city/major city outside London like Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Newcastle, Edinburgh...

            Population wise, Sweden is still closer to Norway than UK.
            Here I will have to disagree because the math simply does not check out

            Again from

            https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.01167.pdf

            Table A (page 23) shows that if you choose a random person in Sweden and draw a rectangle around him of 1 square Km, you will find on average 2246 people living within this area (ρW=2246)

            If you do the same in Norway, you will find on average 791 people

            If you do it in the UK, you will find on average 4265 people

            So, I can accept his claim that from a probabilistic population density view, Sweden's population arrangement is closer to the UK's than to Norway's, but this does not change the fact that

            1 the difference between Sweden and the UK is still significant and the population density that is experienced by a random Swede is on average way less than the one experienced by a randomly chosen British.

            2 with such parameter in mind, Sweden can still be compared to another Scandinavian country (Denmark) which has a ρW number of 2761 which is even higher than Sweden's but did not lead to the very high death rates we saw in Sweden.
            Last edited by pamak; 18 Oct 20, 13:38.
            My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

            Comment


            • Originally posted by pamak View Post

              Here I will have to disagree because the math simply does not check out

              Again from

              https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.01167.pdf

              Table A (page 23) shows that if you choose a random person in Sweden and draw a rectangle around him of 1 square Km, you will find on average 2246 people living within this area (ρW=2246)

              If you do the same in Norway, you will find on average 791 people

              If you do it in the UK, you will find on average 4265 people

              So, I can accept his claim that from a probabilistic population density view, Sweden's population arrangement is closer to the UK's than to Norway's, but this does not change the fact that

              1 the difference between Sweden and the UK is still significant and the population density that is experienced by a random Swede is on average way less than the one experienced by a randomly chosen British.

              2 with such parameter in mind, Sweden can still be compared to another Scandinavian country (Denmark) which has a ρW number of 2761 which is even higher than Sweden's but did not lead to the very high death rates we saw in Sweden.
              See your point but while both Norway and Sweden have a single high density area (Oslo and Stockholm), UK have several cities. For example Manchester urban area is about 3.2 millions that is more than Greater Stockholm. Distribution of density are similar for Norway and Sweden but UK from this point of view is closer to Japan.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
                Just out of curiosity, how many of us posters here have had the virus?

                I'm asking, since I am one of those who got a mild case of it back i April.
                Not had it and don't know anyone personally who has.
                "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                Comment


                • Neither do I, my three kids worked right through the lockdown, engineer, copper and nurse, and they haven't either...
                  strange that, innit?
                  The long toll of the brave
                  Is not lost in darkness
                  Over the fruitful earth
                  And athwart the seas
                  Hath passed the light of noble deeds
                  Unquenchable forever.

                  Comment


                  • At last, a stratagem to knock the plague for six!!!

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak


                    The long toll of the brave
                    Is not lost in darkness
                    Over the fruitful earth
                    And athwart the seas
                    Hath passed the light of noble deeds
                    Unquenchable forever.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Metryll View Post

                      See your point but while both Norway and Sweden have a single high density area (Oslo and Stockholm), UK have several cities. For example Manchester urban area is about 3.2 millions that is more than Greater Stockholm. Distribution of density are similar for Norway and Sweden but UK from this point of view is closer to Japan.
                      I understand the point you are making about the "single point" of high concentration and this is reflected by the data too because the living (or non-empty) population density ρN is very high in Norway too, and in fact it is higher than in Sweden (Norway ρN=89, Sweden ρN=84).

                      But I also have to take in account that density of the point itself, and Oslo probably has a much lower population density than Stockholm . And it is the combination of the two (population distribution in cities and density at the cities) which is used for the calculation of the probable density that is experienced by a randomly chosen individual (ρW) . And the link between death rates and ρW is quite stronger (see graphs in the study) than the link between ρN and death rates, so it makes more sense to compare the different countries based on their ρW than on their ρN.

                      And I think that even intuitively, it makes more sense to link the probability of someone being infected to the virus to the probability of how he experiences population density. And of course, when a country has individuals who on average have higher chances of becoming infected as a result of the population density they experience, the same country will also see higher death rates.


                      My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Von Richter View Post
                        At last, a stratagem to knock the plague for six!!!

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak


                        That show never gets old.
                        How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
                        Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

                        Comment


                        • By Jove, I think they've got it!
                          Wot an excellent vaccine for plague...
                          Fourteen pints and a substantial meal!!!


                          The long toll of the brave
                          Is not lost in darkness
                          Over the fruitful earth
                          And athwart the seas
                          Hath passed the light of noble deeds
                          Unquenchable forever.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Von Richter View Post
                            By Jove, I think they've got it!
                            Wot an excellent vaccine for plague...
                            Fourteen pints and a substantial meal!!!


                            You refer to the new, presumably well researched by the numpties in SAGE, rule that pubs in the North can only stay open if they serve food at the same time......
                            "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                            Comment


                            • https://order-order.com/2020/10/21/p...ng-to-be-dead/

                              Wonder whether this is Boris's 'Brenda from Bristol' moment.
                              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                                You refer to the new, presumably well researched by the numpties in SAGE, rule that pubs in the North can only stay open if they serve food at the same time......
                                Yep, great plan, innit!!!???


                                The long toll of the brave
                                Is not lost in darkness
                                Over the fruitful earth
                                And athwart the seas
                                Hath passed the light of noble deeds
                                Unquenchable forever.

                                Comment

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