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  • Originally posted by pamak View Post

    This is exactly why western countries could not be S Korea or Japan. They first needed a hard lock down to bring infections down and reduce the rate of spread. Making decisions about hoow to best fight the pandemic is way more riskier when there is exponential growth and the time lag between making a mistake and receiving the feedback of its consequences results in way more deaths because even one week of exxponential growth means a ot of death! Especially in the beginning Sweden had a very low rate of testing even compared to other European countrries. So, I am not suprised to hear crittticism of the Swedish testing and tracing system. I have voiced similar criticism or months
    No. When the pandemic gets the the point that T & T cannot work the next stage from procedure is to seek to mitigate the effects through expanding hospital capacity and protecting the vulnerable. Sweden and for that matter the UK did the first but few did the second particularly well in the spring. In any event Sweden's current death rate is flat while the UK's is rising, albeit slowly. Again Sweden is back to normal almost whereas the UK is still in chaos.
    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

      No. When the pandemic gets the the point that T & T cannot work the next stage from procedure is to seek to mitigate the effects through expanding hospital capacity and protecting the vulnerable. Sweden and for that matter the UK did the first but few did the second particularly well in the spring. In any event Sweden's current death rate is flat while the UK's is rising, albeit slowly. Again Sweden is back to normal almost whereas the UK is still in chaos.
      In the beginning of a pandemic by a novel virus, you cannot do any of what you say effectively because you do not know all the social channels that can become venues for the virus to reach the most vulnerable, and you cannot build and equally important TRAIN enough personnel to deal with the influx of new victims. And Sweden's **** ups which put it among the worst performersi evidence of what I say.

      Also, as it was mentioned in the articles that were posted, it is not clear how one can accomplish the objective of "protecting the most vulnerable"

      Even if society was to isolate everyone over the age of 65, that would account for almost 20 per cent of Canadians, she said.


      and even with such objective, the issue of overwhelming hospitals still exists

      She said she doesn't think the idea of herd immunity could be carried out without overwhelming the health-care system and causing a significant number of deaths.

      Right now we have a low death rate among people younger than 65 but all of them were still able to get treatment which proved to be sufficient to save their lives. But letting a virus uncontrolled even within the 80% of the population (all those younger than 65), will still lead to veryyy high rates of hospitalization and I doubt that any healthcare system can absorb such result. By the way, while I do know that 80% of deaths are concentrated to people older than 65, I do not know yet the percentage of hospitaizations in relation to age.
      My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Capt AFB View Post

        New Zealand and Taiwan are islands, which probably as some effect of controlling COVID 19 entering the country.

        As for Sweden, someone posted this article on FB a few weeks ago, which is a balanced review of the country's response to COVID 19

        https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/co...JC5AqN93TpTgQc


        As has been pointed out, so is the UK....so why not compare islands with islands?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

          Rubbish

          The professors and other academics and medics mentioned in the Declaration come from both left and right of the political spectrum. They are mostly senior academics in relevant disciplines from the most prestigious universities in the world.

          In the UK as well as the above Declaration there have been multiple similar representations to the government from medics and academics opposing the lock downs.

          New Zealand is a bunch of rocks in the middle of the Pacific. It is easy for them to isolate themselves. Problem they have is that they have to stay isolated for ever if they want to stay Covid free.
          Sweden on the other hand is a mainstream EU country with free borders. It has followed standard anti pandemic procedures that have been shown to work with Covid as they have worked with pandemics in the past. Swedes do not live in the dystopian new normal that New York, much of the US and the UK live in.



          Rubbish isn't an answer.

          It's actually a rather emotional response that fails to address any of the points made in the article first posted or the information contained on the Wikipedia entry.

          Many other similiarly qualified academics have issue with the declaration as you would have seen if you'd bothered to read further.


          And the UK is a bunch of rocks in the Atlantic/North Sea. More similar in geography and cultural background to NZ than Sweden. Also doing much, much better in the COVID deaths, infectios etc etc etc than Sweden.

          So apart from politics, what is the reason for not using them as an examples.

          The science doesn't support ignoring them. So I can only conclude it's a partisan political response.




          Comment


          • Originally posted by Surrey View Post



            New Zealand is a bunch of rocks in the middle of the Pacific. It is easy for them to isolate themselves.


            By the way, out of curiosity I found some data about the tourist arrivals

            N. Zealand had a higher rate (tourist visits per capita) than the UK

            https://www.nationmaster.com/country...als-per-capita

            Here is also the link with the global map:

            .https://www.nationmaster.com/country...als-per-capita

            If you point at a specific country, you can read the arrivals per capita. Countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, and France attract proportinally more people than countries like the UK, Germany or Sweden.




            Did not the EU countries close the borders even to travelers from other EU countries?
            My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

            Comment


            • Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post

              Rubbish isn't an answer.

              It's actually a rather emotional response that fails to address any of the points made in the article first posted or the information contained on the Wikipedia entry.

              Many other similiarly qualified academics have issue with the declaration as you would have seen if you'd bothered to read further.


              And the UK is a bunch of rocks in the Atlantic/North Sea. More similar in geography and cultural background to NZ than Sweden. Also doing much, much better in the COVID deaths, infectios etc etc etc than Sweden.

              So apart from politics, what is the reason for not using them as an examples.

              The science doesn't support ignoring them. So I can only conclude it's a partisan political response.



              You implied that it was political. I responded that the Declaration is signed by doctors and scientists of both left and right nullifying that point.

              GBP proposes a much better way of dealing with the pandemic that is in line with who past pandemics have been successfully dealt with and follows what used to be standard practice for most western countries. The only way out of this is herd immunity, there is no prospect of eradicating Covid. The virus is not that dangerous to the overwhelming majority of people so the logical strategy is to protect the relative few who are vulnerable and let everyone else get on with their lives. And yes seeking to dictate to people, depriving them if a means to make a living which is the current plan is tyranny.

              The UK has many times the population of NZ, and is a world wide trade hub trying compare them simply because they are both islands is ridiculous. There are more sheep in NZ than people.

              Wikipedia has been criticized countless times on these forums and is not neutral or a valid sourced for anything other than the most basic information on a subject.


              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                You implied that it was political. I responded that the Declaration is signed by doctors and scientists of both left and right nullifying that point.

                GBP proposes a much better way of dealing with the pandemic that is in line with who past pandemics have been successfully dealt with and follows what used to be standard practice for most western countries. The only way out of this is herd immunity, there is no prospect of eradicating Covid. The virus is not that dangerous to the overwhelming majority of people so the logical strategy is to protect the relative few who are vulnerable and let everyone else get on with their lives. And yes seeking to dictate to people, depriving them if a means to make a living which is the current plan is tyranny.

                The UK has many times the population of NZ, and is a world wide trade hub trying compare them simply because they are both islands is ridiculous. There are more sheep in NZ than people.

                Wikipedia has been criticized countless times on these forums and is not neutral or a valid sourced for anything other than the most basic information on a subject.

                Tourist arrival data do not show that outsiders have less impact on NZ than on the UK. Sure the population (and arrival size) in these countries is different but the probabiity of encounter a tourist is not based on absolute numbers which is the reason why I posted some data for per capita tourist arrrivals.

                Trade did not stop during the pandemic. Chinese goods could still reach western ports.

                My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                Comment


                • We also conflate two different topics:

                  The first one is about the prrper reaction at the beginning of te pandemic

                  The second is about the proper reaction from now on.

                  My most dangerous mission: I landed in the middle of an enemy tank battalion and I immediately, started spraying bullets killing everybody around me having fun up until my computer froze...

                  Comment


                  • From my earlier post

                    New Zealand and Taiwan are islands, which probably as some effect of controlling COVID 19 entering the country.
                    Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post

                    As has been pointed out, so is the UK....so why not compare islands with islands?
                    Hmm! Some of you got stuck on my mention of the island thing.

                    Yes UK is an island, such as New Zealand and Taiwan. So is Japan, and for that matter, Australia.

                    As I point out, being on an island seem to have some effect on reducing the COVID 19 threat. It makes closing the entry points a bit easier - The commercial and business traffic to the UK and Australia would be higher than NZ or Taiwan.

                    UK ports of entry (air and sea) are also a lot more numerous than NZ and Taiwan, making it more porous. It does not mean that this is the only way the bug will enter an island country, but it helps.

                    Japan is also quite a busy commercial and business hub, but has a more disciplined population, when it comes to deal with medical emergencies. I certainly haven't seen news reports of Japanese young adults partying at pub, ignoring social distancing!

                    So being on an island would help, but it is in no way the magic bullet that will stop the spread, especially if the bug is already propagating internally.










                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                      You implied that it was political. I responded that the Declaration is signed by doctors and scientists of both left and right nullifying that point.

                      GBP proposes a much better way of dealing with the pandemic that is in line with who past pandemics have been successfully dealt with and follows what used to be standard practice for most western countries. The only way out of this is herd immunity, there is no prospect of eradicating Covid. The virus is not that dangerous to the overwhelming majority of people so the logical strategy is to protect the relative few who are vulnerable and let everyone else get on with their lives. And yes seeking to dictate to people, depriving them if a means to make a living which is the current plan is tyranny.

                      The UK has many times the population of NZ, and is a world wide trade hub trying compare them simply because they are both islands is ridiculous. There are more sheep in NZ than people.

                      Wikipedia has been criticized countless times on these forums and is not neutral or a valid sourced for anything other than the most basic information on a subject.

                      You responded rather emotionally and have come up with zero response to the information in the article I linked too.

                      If I saw any attempt to respond to the issues raised in the article or even acknowledge them, then I'd be less convinced this reply wasn't a politically based response.

                      It would be helpfully to look at how actual history played out with supported evidence:.
                      https://www.history.com/topics/world...8-flu-pandemic
                      A devastating second wave of the Spanish Flu hit American shores in the summer of 1918, as returning soldiers infected with the disease spread it to the general population—especially in densely-crowded cities. Without a vaccine or approved treatment plan, it fell to local mayors and healthy officials to improvise plans to safeguard the safety of their citizens. With pressure to appear patriotic at wartime and with a censored media downplaying the disease’s spread, many made tragic decisions.
                      Philadelphia’s response was too little, too late. Dr. Wilmer Krusen, director of Public Health and Charities for the city, insisted mounting fatalities were not the “Spanish flu,” but rather just the normal flu. So on September 28, the city went forward with a Liberty Loan parade attended by tens of thousands of Philadelphians, spreading the disease like wildfire. In just 10 days, over 1,000 Philadelphians were dead, with another 200,000 sick. Only then did the city close saloons and theaters. By March 1919, over 15,000 citizens of Philadelphia had lost their lives.

                      St. Louis, Missouri, was different: Schools and movie theaters closed and public gatherings were banned. Consequently, the peak mortality rate in St. Louis was just one-eighth of Philadelphia’s death rate during the peak of the pandemic.

                      Citizens in San Francisco were fined $5—a significant sum at the time—if they were caught in public without masks and charged with disturbing the peace.
                      Lockdowns, fines and "tyranny" abound in the historical record.

                      Any decent study of how pandemics were dealt with shows that herd immunity wasn't a planned response but an admission of failure.

                      And yes seeking to dictate to people, depriving them if a means to make a living which is the current plan is tyranny.
                      Oh yes the chicken little call of tyranny,,,,the oppressive heavy hand of the government when dealing with a crisis.

                      Lockdown has existed in Canada since March with varying levels. It's October now so let's be overly generous and say 8 months. In the UK it's been less.

                      I can remember a period in history of around 6 years when parents were separated from their children, some of whom were even sent to other countries. Businesses were shut down, food was rationed, the government controlled so much of how people lived (what they could eat, how they could travel, what they could read, when they could go out and even how they could light their homes). People didn't just lose their lives but had their property destroyed as well.

                      My mother had no contact with her father for 6 years except for the odd letter. No Zoom calls or video chats. He lost his business because he was away.

                      I'm sure astute students of history can identify which much celebrated part of the UK's history I'm referring too.

                      So perhaps it's true when people point out that today's generation couldn't hack it back then.

                      Given the amount of whinging about wearing a piece of cloth on your face and how it infringes your personal freedoms, I'm starting to come around to that point of view.

                      As to your final arguments, if you want to compare the UK to Sweden, expect me to compare the UK to New Zealand.

                      You've provided no valid reason aside from your personal opinion why I shouldn't.

                      Here's another article on the GBD printed in the New Scientist.
                      https://www.newscientist.com/article...herd-immunity/
                      I'm going to quote the actual article to help out those who find clicking on links too taxing:
                      The declaration publicly exposed a scientific disagreement that has been simmering for months. On one side are mainstream scientists who reluctantly see restrictions on freedom as the only way to keep a lid on the pandemic while we wait for vaccines; on the other, the libertarians who see the damage done to economies and individual lives as too high a price.

                      The mainstream media lapped up the disagreement narrative, but completely missed the fundamental problem with the declaration: its extremely dubious claims about herd immunity. This is central to the strategy, but the document badly fluffs the science.

                      Herd immunity is conceptually simple. If enough people become immune to an infectious agent, the entire herd is protected because infectious people rarely encounter a non-immune person, and so transmission fizzles out.

                      The level of individual immunity required to attain herd immunity depends on how infectious the virus is, as measured by R, the average number of people that each infectious person infects. The classic example is measles, which has an R number of around 15 and a herd immunity threshold of 95 per cent. The numbers for the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are about 3.5 and 60 to 70 per cent.

                      Herd immunity has only ever been attained by vaccination. But the declaration advocates naturally acquired immunity. In other words, letting between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population catch the virus.

                      There are a number of issues with this, not least collateral damage. Even if the death rate is under 1 per cent, letting the virus run free will hospitalise and kill millions.

                      But there is another crucial scientific detail that the declaration – along with most discussions of herd immunity – misses. We can’t take it for granted that widespread individual immunity will automatically create herd immunity.

                      Herd immunity can only be built if the immune response totally prevents individuals from picking up and transmitting the virus. That sometimes happens, but often doesn’t. A lot of the time, an immune response stops us from falling ill if we reacquire the virus, but doesn’t prevent onward transmission.

                      The same is true of vaccines.

                      We don’t yet know whether natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 (or the experimental vaccines) will halt transmission. Until we do, assuming that herd immunity will automatically appear is unscientific and, frankly, irresponsible.

                      There are many other reasons to be sceptical of the declaration. It doesn’t even mention the debilitating, lasting effects of “long covid”, for example. But they are of secondary significance to the fundamental hole at its heart: the mystifying and dangerous failure to properly grasp the concept of herd immunity.
                      It's a trying time for everyone. I'm certainly not enjoying lockdown.
                      And I can see we're coming at this from two opposing viewpoints,

                      Stay safe.
                      Last edited by CarpeDiem; 17 Oct 20, 17:55.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Capt AFB View Post
                        From my earlier postJapan is also quite a busy commercial and business hub, but has a more disciplined population, when it comes to deal with medical emergencies. I certainly haven't seen news reports of Japanese young adults partying at pub, ignoring social distancing!
                        And Japenese have a long habit of wearing mask because of pollution. This factor was unknown by early 2020 but can explain now why infection rate was so low.

                        So being on an island would help, but it is in no way the magic bullet that will stop the spread, especially if the bug is already propagating internally.
                        A magic bullet no, but by start of pandemy UK stance actually nullified any benefits that Japan in similar position earned from their geographical situation.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post
                          As to your final arguments, if you want to compare the UK to Sweden, expect me to compare the UK to New Zealand.
                          And Sweden should be compared to others Nordic countries. At a time the death toll in Sweden was ten times Norway's one with about a ratio of 2 to 1 in population.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Metryll View Post

                            And Sweden should be compared to others Nordic countries. At a time the death toll in Sweden was ten times Norway's one with about a ratio of 2 to 1 in population.
                            Why?

                            That is only assuming fx Norway had the same contacts with the abroad as Sweden had. With the exact same virus-load in both places at the same time.

                            Or rather assuming fx Oslo and Stockholm had the exact same contacts, frequency and volume, in the first months of 2020.

                            Because "Sweden" here means primarily Stockholm and environs.

                            There were fx 1 million Swedes traveling abroad in the first months of 2020, but only 0,1 million Norwegians.

                            Genetic tracing had established that while everyone was screening for the virus with travelers from China, Iran and the Alps early in 2020, in Sweden the virus established itself with travelers from London, NY and Paris. Geographical proximity on the map is not the whole story of how countries interact in this globalized world.

                            So, no, on balance Sweden is probably not like Norway or Finland. Greater Stockholm however has been a VERY close match with London, Paris or New York.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post

                              You responded rather emotionally and have come up with zero response to the information in the article I linked too.

                              If I saw any attempt to respond to the issues raised in the article or even acknowledge them, then I'd be less convinced this reply wasn't a politically based response.

                              It would be helpfully to look at how actual history played out with supported evidence:.
                              https://www.history.com/topics/world...8-flu-pandemic


                              Lockdowns, fines and "tyranny" abound in the historical record.

                              Any decent study of how pandemics were dealt with shows that herd immunity wasn't a planned response but an admission of failure.



                              Oh yes the chicken little call of tyranny,,,,the oppressive heavy hand of the government when dealing with a crisis.

                              Lockdown has existed in Canada since March with varying levels. It's October now so let's be overly generous and say 8 months. In the UK it's been less.

                              I can remember a period in history of around 6 years when parents were separated from their children, some of whom were even sent to other countries. Businesses were shut down, food was rationed, the government controlled so much of how people lived (what they could eat, how they could travel, what they could read, when they could go out and even how they could light their homes). People didn't just lose their lives but had their property destroyed as well.

                              My mother had no contact with her father for 6 years except for the odd letter. No Zoom calls or video chats. He lost his business because he was away.

                              I'm sure astute students of history can identify which much celebrated part of the UK's history I'm referring too.

                              So perhaps it's true when people point out that today's generation couldn't hack it back then.

                              Given the amount of whinging about wearing a piece of cloth on your face and how it infringes your personal freedoms, I'm starting to come around to that point of view.

                              As to your final arguments, if you want to compare the UK to Sweden, expect me to compare the UK to New Zealand.

                              You've provided no valid reason aside from your personal opinion why I shouldn't.

                              Here's another article on the GBD printed in the New Scientist.
                              https://www.newscientist.com/article...herd-immunity/
                              I'm going to quote the actual article to help out those who find clicking on links too taxing:


                              It's a trying time for everyone. I'm certainly not enjoying lockdown.
                              And I can see we're coming at this from two opposing viewpoints,

                              Stay safe.
                              My view point is that essentially Covid is not a dangerous virus to the vast majority of people. A small minority are endangered but these people are also endangered by many diseases and conditions, part of being old is that in normal times you are more likely to die than someone who is young.

                              Herd immunity is what happens when a pandemic goes endemic. It has happened with various pandemic flus in the past. If it didn't exist than homo sapiens would have become extinct millennia ago. You do not need 60 -70% immunity if that immunity is acquired naturally as opposed to via a vaccine. Also there is evidence of significant cross immunity from other Corona viruses.

                              You refer to the Spanish flu - Covid is nowhere near as dangerous as Spanish flu. Covid's IFR is c0.2%, maybe less. Though comparing to SF is possibly closer than another poster who compared Covid to the Black Death...

                              You refer to ww2. In ww2 people regarded their liberties and way of life as so important that they were prepared to put their lives in extreme risk to preserve them. British military dead were around 400k with a further c40k civilians. It was however thought a price worth paying. Now we are told to give up these same liberties and way of life and make ourselves bankrupt for an indefinite period to avoid a fraction of that cost in lives and a many times smaller cost in life years lost.

                              Johan has provided a comparison to Sweden, and in any event if you go through my posts you will see an interview with Tegnell that shows why Sweden is a better example. NZ is only an example for other sparsely populated isolated island groups in the middle of the ocean. Zero Covid is not and once the virus got out of the Far east never has been a realistic strategy. And their policy is hardly cost free as it has destroyed their tourist industry permanently. Poverty costs lives.


                              Thanks I will seek to stay safe from Covid but I will also look out for far more serious threats to life such as crossing the road.



                              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                              Comment


                              • Just out of curiosity, how many of us posters here have had the virus?

                                I'm asking, since I am one of those who got a mild case of it back i April.

                                Comment

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