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Excess deaths Europe per mid july 2020

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  • Excess deaths Europe per mid july 2020

    charts-pooled-by-age-group_w28-dbf17c3b-c264-43b8-b135-b64cf80f541d by R. Bezoen, on Flickr

    Note on interpretation of data: The number of deaths shown for the three most recent weeks should be interpreted with caution, as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting
    Data originating from the EuroMOMO website.
    https://www.euromomo.eu/

    Small outbreaks continue to show up throughout Europe.

    But common sense also kicked in the past two weeks :
    German states and the federal government have reached an agreement on "more targeted measures" to address localized outbreaks of COVID-19.
    One significant change is that entire districts will no longer be required to lockdown in the case of a localized outbreak, while quarantine and lockdown measures will be tightly limited to only targeted hotspots.
    At least Spain, the UK and the Netherlands are also opting for local lock downs rather than district or regional lock downs.
    I suppose many other EU countries are acting in a similar way.

    As for the nature of the current outbreaks, below list of the UK is representative of what is being experienced in other countries:

    Which areas have had local lockdowns so far?
    The city of Leicester saw lockdown restrictions reimposed after a spike in cases, although this will be partially lifted on 24 JulyHow are places with lots of cases identified?

    The government's strategy is to target local clusters or outbreaks.
    Health Secretary Matt Hancock said action is being taken against more than 100 local outbreaks of coronavirus in England every week.
    A cluster is a group of cases in one place like a hospital, factory or school. When clusters are linked, this is called an outbreak
    .

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-52934822
    "For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"

  • #2


    From the Office for National Statistics

    "The coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a large impact on the number of deaths registered over the last few months and is the main reason for deaths increasing above what is expected (the five-year average). The disease has had a larger impact on those most vulnerable (for example, those who already suffer from a medical condition) and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of the coronavirus. These deaths occurring earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average."

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Gooner View Post


      From the Office for National Statistics

      "The coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a large impact on the number of deaths registered over the last few months and is the main reason for deaths increasing above what is expected (the five-year average). The disease has had a larger impact on those most vulnerable (for example, those who already suffer from a medical condition) and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of the coronavirus. These deaths occurring earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average."
      As well as the current dip being because many people's deaths being brought forward from later in the year to to March and April, part of the hit itself may be due to a mild flu season the previous year. Excluding children, Covid attacks the same groups that flu attacks, the elderly and infirm. This effect is most shown by Belgium which had the mildest flu season and has been hit hardest by Covid. Many of those killed by Covid in 2020 may have died in the previous year in a nirmal flu season.


      https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/...ers/wp2003.pdf
      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

      Comment


      • #4
        England hardest hit in Europe: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53592881

        ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uarytojune2020
        How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
        Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

        Comment


        • #5
          Three cheers for Sir Winston Boris...
          he said he's make Britain number one again.


          The long toll of the brave
          Is not lost in darkness
          Over the fruitful earth
          And athwart the seas
          Hath passed the light of noble deeds
          Unquenchable forever.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
            England hardest hit in Europe: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53592881
            I have no doubt Britain, and within it England, were hit very hard. However, I find it surprising that in this study, Italy is mentioned only once in passing, and its data are not included. Probably, England would maintain the unlucky top position, but I'd be curious about how far behind Italy is. Not much, I'd guess.

            Michele

            Comment


            • #7
              Credit also to the NHS in ensuring the UK has one of the highest Case Fatality Rates in the world.





              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Michele View Post

                I have no doubt Britain, and within it England, were hit very hard. However, I find it surprising that in this study, Italy is mentioned only once in passing, and its data are not included. Probably, England would maintain the unlucky top position, but I'd be curious about how far behind Italy is. Not much, I'd guess.
                But how many of those deaths are actually due to Covid? Thousands have died due to the effects of lock down. Large parts of the NHS were shut down in March. The number of cancer diagnosis has crashed. Numerous cancer patients have had their treatments stopped. etc. And these deaths will continue mounting up the longer any return to normality is delayed.

                https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ealthcare.html
                "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                Comment


                • #9
                  The Government have delayed any further losing of Covid restrictions and are indicating that if any further restrictions are lifted in the future than others will have to be reimposed. In addition Kim Jong Son has announced a raft of new restrictions for those living in the North. How hard is it to get Swedish citizenship?

                  Looked up some of the areas that have been put into enhanced lock down. One of them, Rossendale has a seven day average of 0.4 cases (not deaths) per day. And still Boris wants to crush them?
                  Last edited by Surrey; 31 Jul 20, 08:01.
                  "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The claim that some covid patients would have died anyway is equally true for cancer patients dying earlier: many of them would have died anyway.
                    "For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Rutger View Post
                      The claim that some covid patients would have died anyway is equally true for cancer patients dying earlier: many of them would have died anyway.
                      Cancer treatments often work and generally at least significantly delay death, often by many years. Cancer care has advanced massively in the last few decades. Immunotherapy has been spectacularly successful in many cases. Getting cancer is usually no linger a death sentence. By ceasing cancer treatments the NHS will have condemned many to death.
                      Further cancer is generally much easier to treat if it is detected earlier rather than later. By stopping much of the diagnosis part of the NHS including making it much harder to actually see a GP the NHS will mean that cancer is detected at a much later stage resulting in more deaths. A good part of the 21k killed by the lock down will be from cancer. This number will grow even if the government returned the NHS to its normal state tomorrow. However there seems no intention to ever return to normal.

                      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Michele View Post

                        I have no doubt Britain, and within it England, were hit very hard. However, I find it surprising that in this study, Italy is mentioned only once in passing, and its data are not included. Probably, England would maintain the unlucky top position, but I'd be curious about how far behind Italy is. Not much, I'd guess.
                        Italy's data is in the second link I posted (section 6): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uarytojune2020

                        Excess deaths is very low compared with England.
                        How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
                        Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          UK has the second highest death rate in the world (only behind Yemen) as a percentage of cases at 15.22% of those who get it, die from it.
                          https://www.statista.com/statistics/...tes-worldwide/

                          Do we have any explanations as to why this is so?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                            UK has the second highest death rate in the world (only behind Yemen) as a percentage of cases at 15.22% of those who get it, die from it.
                            https://www.statista.com/statistics/...tes-worldwide/

                            Do we have any explanations as to why this is so?
                            Death numbers are PHE ones so probably about 2k too high. Puts us down a bit. PHE have admitted their error and supposedly have been told to fix it. That was two weeks ago. They haven't yet. Being cynical I suspect that the Government is happy to show an inflated figure as it supports the increased restrictions they have enacted since mid July and added to today.
                            "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                            Comment

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