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  • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

    Deaths are a more reliable way of tracking an epidemic according to two Oxford profs (Epidemiology and medicine) . Easier to count the number of deaths than infections, more likely to miss infections than deaths for a start and also who is being tested? Are they representive? Whereas dead is dead. Besides the positive tests look fairly stable despite a steady decline in deaths s something else going on.

    Anyway bed use is tracking downwards as well if you want to follow a leading indicator.

    So again Swedish deaths are tending downwards like everywhere else in Western Europe. I already said that their peak was a week behind the UK's.
    While not impossible, there is no evidence that there will be a second peak in Sweden or the U.K. Or France for that matter.
    Sweden has 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants, higher than the UK, USA and Italy.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...te-per-capita/
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/116732...highest-world/

    The right wing press is not impressed with Sweden.

    How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
    Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post

      Sweden has 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants, higher than the UK, USA and Italy.
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...te-per-capita/
      https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/116732...highest-world/

      The right wing press is not impressed with Sweden.
      As I said above Sweden is about a week behind the Uk. Our peak was 8th April, their's was a week later.

      I have seen articles in the Telegraph supporting Sweden's approach. It depends on the journalist involved. It is not unusual to have opposing articles in the same paper. R
      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

        As I said above Sweden is about a week behind the Uk. Our peak was 8th April, their's was a week later.

        I have seen articles in the Telegraph supporting Sweden's approach. It depends on the journalist involved. It is not unusual to have opposing articles in the same paper. R
        Their peak has not happened yet.
        https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/
        How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
        Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
          Yes it has, see the graph of daily deaths on my post number 294.

          "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

            Deaths are a more reliable way of tracking an epidemic according to two Oxford profs (Epidemiology and medicine) . Easier to count the number of deaths than infections, more likely to miss infections than deaths for a start and also who is being tested? Are they representive? Whereas dead is dead. Besides the positive tests look fairly stable despite a steady decline in deaths s something else going on.

            Anyway bed use is tracking downwards as well if you want to follow a leading indicator.

            So again Swedish deaths are tending downwards like everywhere else in Western Europe. I already said that their peak was a week behind the UK's.
            The issue is not about deaths, beds or which indicator one take but how they are used.

            In order to evaluate lockdown, you do use Western European countries but not Nordic ones which are way closer to Sweden.

            Since you consider deaths as the good indicator, let's have a look :

            Sweden 10 millions, 3,925 deaths.
            Peak number of daily deaths in Sweden : 185

            https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

            Others Nordic countries as Sweden using a 5 million figure : 2k deaths.

            * Norway : (5millions) 235 deaths.
            Sweden as Norway : 500 deaths.
            Peak number of daily deaths in Norway : 16

            https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/norway/

            * Finland : (5.5 millions) 306 deaths
            Sweden as Finland : 712 deaths
            Peak number of daily deaths in Finland : 43

            https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/finland/

            * Denmark: (5.8 millions) 561 deaths
            Sweden as Denmark : 1122 deaths
            Peak number of daily deaths in Denmark: 22

            https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/denmark/

            Sweden daily deaths is now (may be) decreasing but it did so in April for others Nordic countries.

            While not impossible, there is no evidence that there will be a second peak in Sweden or the U.K. Or France for that matter.
            Most epidemiologist consider a second wave surge as highly probable.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Metryll View Post

              The issue is not about deaths, beds or which indicator one take but how they are used.

              In order to evaluate lockdown, you do use Western European countries but not Nordic ones which are way closer to Sweden.

              Since you consider deaths as the good indicator, let's have a look :

              Sweden 10 millions, 3,925 deaths.
              Peak number of daily deaths in Sweden : 185

              https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

              Others Nordic countries as Sweden using a 5 million figure : 2k deaths.

              * Norway : (5millions) 235 deaths.
              Sweden as Norway : 500 deaths.
              Peak number of daily deaths in Norway : 16

              https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/norway/

              * Finland : (5.5 millions) 306 deaths
              Sweden as Finland : 712 deaths
              Peak number of daily deaths in Finland : 43

              https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/finland/

              * Denmark: (5.8 millions) 561 deaths
              Sweden as Denmark : 1122 deaths
              Peak number of daily deaths in Denmark: 22

              https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/denmark/

              Sweden daily deaths is now (may be) decreasing but it did so in April for others Nordic countries.



              Most epidemiologist consider a second wave surge as highly probable.
              Technical point. Worldometers shows the number reported dying per day not the actual number dying on that day. There is a difference. The graphs I have shown show the numbers dying on actual days. Using actual dates of death makes it much easier to spot trends and eliminates the weekend effect on reporting. The peak deaths per day for Sweden was 116. the figure of 185 from worldometers would have been showing catch up from previous days. The same principle applies to all countries.

              You are cherry picking in doing comparisons to other Scandinavian countries. And in any event as I have mentioned in the past there are numerous reasons why it is difficult to use international comparisons to judge the merits or otherwise of particular health strategies.

              There is no maybe about Swedish deaths declining. The numbers are are significantly lower than they were at the peak.

              A second wave, there is no eveidence that it is inevitable nor probable. There has been no surge in infections in countries that have relaxed their restrictions and not all pandemics have one. Covid is a corona virus not flu.


              https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/


              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                Technical point. Worldometers shows the number reported dying per day not the actual number dying on that day. There is a difference. The graphs I have shown show the numbers dying on actual days. Using actual dates of death makes it much easier to spot trends and eliminates the weekend effect on reporting. The peak deaths per day for Sweden was 116. the figure of 185 from worldometers would have been showing catch up from previous days. The same principle applies to all countries.
                As you wrote, same pronciples applies to all countries, hence maximum values are computed the same way and can be compared.

                You are cherry picking in doing comparisons to other Scandinavian countries. And in any event as I have mentioned in the past there are numerous reasons why it is difficult to use international comparisons to judge the merits or otherwise of particular health strategies.
                Restricting comparison to only UK, France and Italy is cherry picking by definition. If one claim that Sweden approach is better than lockdown then it must be true for all countries. Clearly it is not the case.

                There is no maybe about Swedish deaths declining. The numbers are are significantly lower than they were at the peak.
                Data show that others Nordic countries reached and went past the peak way before Sweden, hence arguing that deaths drop now in Sweden do support non lockdown over lockdown is non sense. Actual drop or not.

                A second wave, there is no eveidence that it is inevitable nor probable.
                Europe should prepare for a “second wave” of coronavirus Covid-19 as deconfinement continues, with the question not if, but “when, and how big”, a leading disease prevention advisor to the EU has said. and how big”, a leading disease prevention advisor to the EU has said.Europe should prepare for a “second wave”

                https://www.connexionfrance.com/Fren...ee-second-wave

                There has been no surge in infections in countries that have relaxed their restrictions and not all pandemics have one.
                "Authorities in France are working to contain new clusters of coronavirus which have sprung up since the country made its first tentative steps out of lockdown last week, Health Minister Olivier Véran has said.

                Mr Véran told the Journal du Dimanche that 25 new outbreaks had been identified since May 11. Only Normandy and Corsica had avoided a new cluster of Covid-19 cases."

                https://www.connexionfrance.com/Fren...fied-in-France

                Covid is a corona virus not flu.
                Both SRAS-Cov2 and flu like H1N1 are coronavirus.


                Comment


                • It's fairly simple and goes for everything in life : be prepared. Just don't let it govern your life.
                  "For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Rutger View Post
                    It's fairly simple and goes for everything in life : be prepared. Just don't let it govern your life.
                    Problem is that this fear is dominating all our lives. There needs to be some perspective.
                    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Metryll View Post

                      As you wrote, same pronciples applies to all countries, hence maximum values are computed the same way and can be compared.



                      Restricting comparison to only UK, France and Italy is cherry picking by definition. If one claim that Sweden approach is better than lockdown then it must be true for all countries. Clearly it is not the case.



                      Data show that others Nordic countries reached and went past the peak way before Sweden, hence arguing that deaths drop now in Sweden do support non lockdown over lockdown is non sense. Actual drop or not.



                      Europe should prepare for a “second wave” of coronavirus Covid-19 as deconfinement continues, with the question not if, but “when, and how big”, a leading disease prevention advisor to the EU has said. and how big”, a leading disease prevention advisor to the EU has said.Europe should prepare for a “second wave”

                      https://www.connexionfrance.com/Fren...ee-second-wave



                      "Authorities in France are working to contain new clusters of coronavirus which have sprung up since the country made its first tentative steps out of lockdown last week, Health Minister Olivier Véran has said.

                      Mr Véran told the Journal du Dimanche that 25 new outbreaks had been identified since May 11. Only Normandy and Corsica had avoided a new cluster of Covid-19 cases."



                      https://www.connexionfrance.com/Fren...fied-in-France



                      Both SRAS-Cov2 and flu like H1N1 are coronavirus.

                      Only 250 new cases in France reported today. Does not look like a new wave despite a slight relaxation.

                      Are they doing tests in France? The French test number never seems to change?
                      Last edited by Surrey; 24 May 20, 00:55.
                      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                      Comment


                      • Sweden numbers still going down.



                        "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                          Only 250 new cases in France reported today.
                          You claimed that there was no new infections. There are. In Malaysia and China as well.

                          "The new cases in Wuhan raised concerns of a wider resurgence as businesses restart and people resume normal activities across the country. Some cities in Northeast China’s Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces are also now on high alert and put residents back into lockdown after the emergence of clusters of new cases."

                          https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-05...101552828.html

                          Does not look like a new wave despite a slight relaxation.
                          No one argue that second wawe is on us now, but that this wawe is considered as most likely.

                          Are they doing tests in France? The French test number never seems to change?
                          France do use tests.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                            Sweden numbers still going down.


                            Can you provide a link to where you sourced these graphs please? I ask because the source URL seems to indicate they came from the Swedish health organization. However the URL is the same on both graphs but the title of the graphs is different in each case . One claims to show deaths, the other ICU admissions.
                            Thank you.

                            EDIT:
                            Never mind I found it It seems these are twitter graphs made by someone from this site:
                            https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...all-i-sverige/

                            Another graph on the Swedish site also shows culmative cases of illness per day (sjukdomsfall/dag kumulultavit)
                            Data for the most recent days are as follows:
                            5/19/20 32 088
                            5/20/20 32 688
                            5/21/20 33 186
                            5/22/20 33 433
                            5/23/20 33 459

                            So while some indicators are improving, the total number of cases from Sweden are still increasing. Hopefully the trend of smaller increases continues.
                            Last edited by CarpeDiem; 24 May 20, 12:01.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post

                              Can you provide a link to where you sourced these graphs please? I ask because the source URL seems to indicate they came from the Swedish health organization. However the URL is the same on both graphs but the title of the graphs is different in each case . One claims to show deaths, the other ICU admissions.
                              Thank you.

                              EDIT:
                              Never mind I found it It seems these are twitter graphs made by someone from this site:
                              https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...all-i-sverige/

                              Another graph on the Swedish site also shows culmative cases of illness per day (sjukdomsfall/dag kumulultavit)
                              Data for the most recent days are as follows:
                              5/19/20 32 088
                              5/20/20 32 688
                              5/21/20 33 186
                              5/22/20 33 433
                              5/23/20 33 459

                              So while some indicators are improving, the total number of cases from Sweden are still increasing. Hopefully the trend of smaller increases continues.
                              I get the data from a prof at Nottingham uni who accesses that site. It is often difficult to get actual deaths per day as opposed to reported deaths per day. having actual deaths makes it much easier to detect trends. I usually discount cases identified as it is generally accepted that most cases of Covid are never diagnosed.
                              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Metryll View Post

                                You claimed that there was no new infections. There are. In Malaysia and China as well.

                                "The new cases in Wuhan raised concerns of a wider resurgence as businesses restart and people resume normal activities across the country. Some cities in Northeast China’s Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces are also now on high alert and put residents back into lockdown after the emergence of clusters of new cases."

                                https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-05...101552828.html



                                No one argue that second wawe is on us now, but that this wawe is considered as most likely.



                                France do use tests.
                                There is no proof that the new cases in Wuhan are new cases, it is more than likely that these are old infections .

                                Comment

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