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Controlled Herd Immunity Strategy for Covid 19

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  • Controlled Herd Immunity Strategy for Covid 19

    https://order-order.com/2020/03/14/w...mmunity-video/

    The British government is following a 'Herd Immunity' strategy in dealing with Covid. What is driving this strategy are the following beliefs/facts -

    1. There is little that can be done in the long term to stop the great majority of people getting Covid
    2. The vast majority who get the disease will recover with little or no assistance.
    3. There is no vaccine or any prospect of a vaccine in the near future.
    4. The more extreme attempts to reduce infection spreading such as closing schools and shutting everything done will probably be ineffective and will certainly be extremely costly and will be impossible to maintain for the length of time needed for them to have a chance of working. Some measures, such as shutting schools will actually be counter productie in that they will reduce the number of clinical staff available to treat those suffering from the varus.
    5. Even in the more vulnerable groups - the elderly and infirm - the great majority who get the virus will recover.
    6. There are limited resources available to treat those patients who suffer serious attacks of the virus. These resources have to be conceived by controlling the rate of infection, slowing it down so that the numbers entering hospital for treatment. Given that measures such as restrictions on movement, public events etc can only be maintained for a limited time the government has to apply them and relax them at appropriate times until herd immunity is achieved.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...oronavirus-uk/
    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

  • #2
    It's actually a valid strategy. Prepare to be pilloried for not 'doing something' as the media-induced panic continues. But overall it's a valid strategy.

    I'm actually resigned to catching CV. As a first responder, I don't see any way that I'm going to ultimately avoid catching it in the first place. I caught the Swine flu, this will be yet another pandemic that I catch because someone's got to try to keep the country from murdering itself.
    Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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    • #3
      It is a strategy but I'm not sure if it is a good one. After all with most of the population getting it in short order will likely lead to the health services being overwhelmed leading to the situation currently seen in Italy. After all most of the infected and worst affected can still be saved should it be possible to organize proper medical care for them. The idea with strict isolation (far more strict than that of the UK) at this point is not really the prevention of the spread of disease but (at best case) limiting it or (more likely) merely trying to slow it down and make it spread out more so that there would not be simultaneously that many vulnerable persons needing medical attention. From the point of view of the 'herd immunity' the end result is the same - just that the route the UK has chosen appears to be quite a bit riskier.
      It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
        It is a strategy but I'm not sure if it is a good one. After all with most of the population getting it in short order will likely lead to the health services being overwhelmed leading to the situation currently seen in Italy. After all most of the infected and worst affected can still be saved should it be possible to organize proper medical care for them. The idea with strict isolation (far more strict than that of the UK) at this point is not really the prevention of the spread of disease but (at best case) limiting it or (more likely) merely trying to slow it down and make it spread out more so that there would not be simultaneously that many vulnerable persons needing medical attention. From the point of view of the 'herd immunity' the end result is the same - just that the route the UK has chosen appears to be quite a bit riskier.
        The UK is somewhat behind Italy in terms of infection. Given that the most extreme restrictions can only be used for a short period and only once it makes sense to wait until things get worse before using them.
        "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by TacCovert4 View Post
          It's actually a valid strategy. Prepare to be pilloried for not 'doing something' as the media-induced panic continues. But overall it's a valid strategy.

          I'm actually resigned to catching CV. As a first responder, I don't see any way that I'm going to ultimately avoid catching it in the first place. I caught the Swine flu, this will be yet another pandemic that I catch because someone's got to try to keep the country from murdering itself.
          Remember to clean your hands!

          "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

          Comment


          • #6
            It looks like a very realistic strategy. There are no elections going on in the U,K. this year, are there?

            There is the killer flaw in that strategy; Politicians would have to turn their backs on all the advantages they can secure by creating a panic.

            "Never let a good crisis go to waste" has become "Cause a crisis every day to get more leverage".
            Hopefully, everyone that says that will catch this disease next.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Surrey View Post
              The UK is somewhat behind Italy in terms of infection.
              I do not deny that. However the trajectory is worrying if no real precautions are taken. Though that being said the US seems even worse with essentially wealth based health system - you at least have NHS.
              Given that the most extreme restrictions can only be used for a short period and only once it makes sense to wait until things get worse before using them.
              Some, yes. But others can be used for extended periods. I'm not 100% sure after reading the texts what is the current stance in the UK but here (Finland) it seems all schools which can move to 'home study' mode with mobile apps used to deliver homeworks and similar should do so, all people who can are to do work from home instead of office should do so. All events which can be are prevented from taking place are prevented from taking place. Travelling is discouraged. Travelling abroad especially. All unnecessary use of easily contaminated spaces is discouraged (common sports halls, gyms etc.). And so on...

              Here there is a minor catch with what can be banned and what not. Government can not assume full control without the parliament giving its explicit authorization (5/6 majority) for it. So at the moment they can only recommend that relevant authorities take the actions they ask. They can also only request that people follow their recommendations. For example the government can not currently close schools. They simply do not have authority to do that (without the emergency - essentially just a tad shy of the 'state of war' - powers). That being said it is almost certain that the parliament would give that authority if the government just asked for it - but it can not do those things at the moment.
              It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                I do not deny that. However the trajectory is worrying if no real precautions are taken. Though that being said the US seems even worse with essentially wealth based health system - you at least have NHS.

                Some, yes. But others can be used for extended periods. I'm not 100% sure after reading the texts what is the current stance in the UK but here (Finland) it seems all schools which can move to 'home study' mode with mobile apps used to deliver homeworks and similar should do so, all people who can are to do work from home instead of office should do so. All events which can be are prevented from taking place are prevented from taking place. Travelling is discouraged. Travelling abroad especially. All unnecessary use of easily contaminated spaces is discouraged (common sports halls, gyms etc.). And so on...

                Here there is a minor catch with what can be banned and what not. Government can not assume full control without the parliament giving its explicit authorization (5/6 majority) for it. So at the moment they can only recommend that relevant authorities take the actions they ask. They can also only request that people follow their recommendations. For example the government can not currently close schools. They simply do not have authority to do that (without the emergency - essentially just a tad shy of the 'state of war' - powers). That being said it is almost certain that the parliament would give that authority if the government just asked for it - but it can not do those things at the moment.
                In the UK schools are still open. Many sports events including the football have voluntarily shut down. No government instruction though. Travel restrictions on specific countries such as Italy and China but no general closure of borders.
                People who have symptoms are advised to self isolate for seven days. Given that the early symptoms of Covid are essentially the same as that of a cold or flu this will include numerous people who do not have Covid.
                Anyone who has had contact with someone with Covid is advised to self isolate for 14 days. Anyone with Covid who recovers is expected to isolate. Anyone with Coid but who does not have severe symptoms is expected to self isolate.
                Numerous messages about washing hands and using tissues.

                There is pressure to close schools but firstly this will damage the education of millions of children and will take a large proportion of the work force out as they are forced to care for children who cant go to school. Plus there would likely be a law and order problem as gangs of feral teenagers start roaming the streets. The Uk has a very high female employment rate, in contrast to many European countries. In particular numerous nurses and near 50% of doctors are female thus you would remove countless health care staff at the exact time that they are needed most. There is talk of providing additional child care but this would defeat the objective in that instead of children going to school they would all go to centralized child care facilities....

                Overall with the exception of the limited international travel restrictions most actions of HMG to date are advisory rather than mandatory. Th UK is a free country and has been so for a very long time. Putting draconian public order controls in such are currently being operated in Italy and Spain will be extremely difficult.
                "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                Comment


                • #9
                  Probably a great strategy if we were living in the stone age In the 21st Century, with the finest minds in the world working on it, unlimited money and resources and a large and willing pool of guinea pigs, we will probaly have a vaccine and treatment for it in months.

                  China has managed to slow the number of new cases down to double digits and the percentage of people who have caught it there stands at 0.00562% of the population. In other words it would take an increase of 1,000,000% for China to get herd immunity.


                  Any country that chooses to chase 60% infection rate will quite rightly be isolated by the rest of the world.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                    Overall with the exception of the limited international travel restrictions most actions of HMG to date are advisory rather than mandatory. Th UK is a free country and has been so for a very long time. Putting draconian public order controls in such are currently being operated in Italy and Spain will be extremely difficult.
                    Legal issues are also in play, while the federal government here can order bars to close, for example, the only authority that can actually enforce such a decision is in fact the applicable mayor and his local police force.

                    Thus, as in most democratic nation states, some form of consensus needs to be found at all levels, to eventually arrive at what can be called "draconian" measures…

                    Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

                    Bolgios - Mercenary Game.

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                    • #11
                      Cut to the chase.

                      Either let it roll at full swing.
                      Or try to flatten and spread the peak.
                      "For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Rutger View Post
                        Cut to the chase.

                        Either let it roll at full swing.
                        Or try to flatten and spread the peak.
                        We are seeking to flatten and spread the peak while aiming to prevent a double or even triple peak as happened with the Spanuish flu.
                        If you succeed in closing everything down through draconian measures then true you will reduce the rate of infection but you can only maintain restrictions for a limited time and has soon as you relax them the virus will be back with a vengeance.
                        "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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                        • #13
                          Looks like Boris is getting line with the rest of the developed world. Will the schools be closed in the next few days?
                          "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                          validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                          "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

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                          • #14
                            It's somewhat ironic, the EU may just close its external borders before the UK does
                            Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

                            Bolgios - Mercenary Game.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by E.D. Morel View Post
                              Looks like Boris is getting line with the rest of the developed world. Will the schools be closed in the next few days?
                              Hopefully not. No need for schools to close. And the 'ban' on pubs is advisory. The government isn't forcing any to shut, just saying people shouldn't go out.
                              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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