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Have the wheels come off the Boris bus?

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  • Have the wheels come off the Boris bus?

    There seem to be two schools of thought.
    1. Boris is flailing about and getting into an ever deeper mess
    2. It's all part of an amazingly cunning plan and when he springs the trap we'll all be gobsmacked

    So far it looks to be more a case of a Baldric like cunning plan than a Machiavellian one
    Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
    Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

  • #2
    His previous track record is clearly one of making a mess only to run away from it all to a remarkably soft landing elsewhere. Unclear if there's such an option from the highest office of the nation? On balance things probably aren't turning out as he imagined. But hey, he made PM, never mind how, for how long, and how it all turns out. One for the history books certainly.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
      His previous track record is clearly one of making a mess only to run away from it all to a remarkably soft landing elsewhere. Unclear if there's such an option from the highest office of the nation? On balance things probably aren't turning out as he imagined. But hey, he made PM, never mind how, for how long, and how it all turns out. One for the history books certainly.
      Technically the 2nd highest office - maybe he plans to usurp the throne There was once a Czar Boris of Bulgaria after all. Would probably make the reign of Ethelred the Unready look like a golden age.
      Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
      Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

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      • #4
        Originally posted by MarkV View Post

        Technically the 2nd highest office - maybe he plans to usurp the throne There was once a Czar Boris of Bulgaria after all. Would probably make the reign of Ethelred the Unready look like a golden age.
        Well I was excluding the downright hereditary ones.

        Real question is if Boris the Great still has appeal with the general electorate to win at the polls in a national election? Maybe he does still? Since the Tories aren't about to try to sack him regardless afaics.
        So he might still get his shot at that. And if he is perceived as the True Brexit Believer thwarted by dastardly Remainers, just maybe that is still a working gambit, and his present trials and tribulations is just setting him up as the Tragic Prince?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
          Well I was excluding the downright hereditary ones.

          Real question is if Boris the Great still has appeal with the general electorate to win at the polls in a national election? Maybe he does still? Since the Tories aren't about to try to sack him regardless afaics.
          So he might still get his shot at that. And if he is perceived as the True Brexit Believer thwarted by dastardly Remainers, just maybe that is still a working gambit, and his present trials and tribulations is just setting him up as the Tragic Prince?
          Well he has two choices - comply with the new law and look a fool
          Refuse to comply and go to jail

          Legal experts have warned the prime minister could go to prison if he refuses to comply with the new law.

          Now MPs have lined up a legal team and are willing to go to court to enforce the law, if necessary.
          In the first instance he will look like the clown prince in the second he may be able to play the martyr card but be unavailable for the post

          Don't he look happy in the BBC photo?
          https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49618242
          Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
          Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by MarkV View Post

            Well he has two choices - comply with the new law and look a fool
            Refuse to comply and go to jail



            In the first instance he will look like the clown prince in the second he may be able to play the martyr card but be unavailable for the post

            Don't he look happy in the BBC photo?
            https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49618242
            Maybe Carrie Symonds did a Carlie Symonds- and moved out....
            Last edited by marktwain; 09 Sep 19, 09:14.
            The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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            • #7
              Originally posted by MarkV View Post
              Don't he look happy in the BBC photo?
              https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49618242
              Regular Mr Sunshine.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post

                Real question is if Boris the Great still has appeal with the general electorate to win at the polls in a national election? Maybe he does still?
                Westminster voting intention:

                CON: 35% (-)
                LAB: 21% (-4)
                LDEM: 19% (+3)
                BREX: 12% (+1)

                via
                @YouGov
                , 05 - 06 Sep

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Aber View Post

                  Unfortunately with the FPTP constituency system this does not tell the whole story as the distribution of support is key so that a majority of the popular vote can still get you a minority of seats. Winning seats with huge majorities doesn't do much good if the other side win more each with a slim majority
                  Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                  Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

                    Latest poll of polls on electoral calculus which converts poll ratings into likely seats gives him a comfortable majority. The people are with him and it explains why Labour are afraid to agree to an election.
                    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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                    • #11
                      If the polls are correct, on the basis of a minority of a third of the UK voters then.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by MarkV View Post

                        Unfortunately with the FPTP constituency system this does not tell the whole story as the distribution of support is key so that a majority of the popular vote can still get you a minority of seats. Winning seats with huge majorities doesn't do much good if the other side win more each with a slim majority
                        I gather that you have been talking to the ghost of John Diefenbaker about Quebec in 1963...

                        Last edited by marktwain; 08 Sep 19, 11:40.
                        The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
                          If the polls are correct, on the basis of a minority of a third of the UK voters then.
                          Under FPTP it is the percentage lead over the next most popular party that is important. Also there is an inbuilt advantage to Labour in the system because urban constituencies, which are more likely to be Labour, tend to have smaller populations than more rural ones, which tend to be Conservative. Though the Labour advantage is less than it was in the past Labour would need a smaller lead to have an absolute majority than the Conservatives.
                          "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                            Under FPTP it is the percentage lead over the next most popular party that is important. Also there is an inbuilt advantage to Labour in the system because urban constituencies, which are more likely to be Labour, tend to have smaller populations than more rural ones, which tend to be Conservative. Though the Labour advantage is less than it was in the past Labour would need a smaller lead to have an absolute majority than the Conservatives.
                            Doesn't that (FPTP) also mean that party splits (i mean sizable party splits) tend to be sort of suicidal for both halves of the split party since there is high likelihood that a third party would reap the benefits? Which would seem to be somewhat of a double edged blade to be honest. I mean while it means that MPs can't really stray too far from party line without losing their place in the spotlight but it would also seem to imply that the party can't alienate subgroups of its own MPs either. Which seems to be the problem for the main UK parties currently.
                            It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                              https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

                              Latest poll of polls on electoral calculus which converts poll ratings into likely seats gives him a comfortable majority. The people are with him and it explains why Labour are afraid to agree to an election.
                              Same polls predicted both a win for May and a comfortable win for Remain though - iirc.

                              Much will depend on who will come out to vote...as always
                              High Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.

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