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  • Conservative Leadership Elections

    Following May's announcement that she is stepping down as PM there will be an election within the Conservative Party for a new leader.

    The rules are that MPs, through a series of elimination rounds select two candidates that are then put to the wider membership to vote on. All paid up members of at least three months standing can vote on the final two. Initial support is shown below.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/par...-javid-10.html

    The two candidates with the most MPs supporting them at present are Gove and Hunt. Hunt is a remainer and while Gove did campaign for leave he is known for having very 'flexible' beliefs. While these two are at present in front ith the MPs, as candidates are eliminated their supporters are likely to transfer to surviving candidates with similar views.

    The two candidates preferred by the membership by a long way are Boris and Raab. If either of these two make it to the final two then they will almost certainly win with Boris wining in the unlikely event of them both making it. If neither of them make it the Party will probably fragment with most supporters transferring to the Brexit Party.

    It is expected that it will take until the end of July for the process to be finished.
    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

  • #2
    Hope you get better luck getting a good leader this time although almost anybody is better than May.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Surrey View Post
      Following May's announcement that she is stepping down as PM there will be an election within the Conservative Party for a new leader.

      The rules are that MPs, through a series of elimination rounds select two candidates that are then put to the wider membership to vote on. All paid up members of at least three months standing can vote on the final two. Initial support is shown below.

      https://www.conservativehome.com/par...-javid-10.html

      The two candidates with the most MPs supporting them at present are Gove and Hunt. Hunt is a remainer and while Gove did campaign for leave he is known for having very 'flexible' beliefs. While these two are at present in front ith the MPs, as candidates are eliminated their supporters are likely to transfer to surviving candidates with similar views.

      The two candidates preferred by the membership by a long way are Boris and Raab. If either of these two make it to the final two then they will almost certainly win with Boris wining in the unlikely event of them both making it. If neither of them make it the Party will probably fragment with most supporters transferring to the Brexit Party.

      It is expected that it will take until the end of July for the process to be finished.
      It appears that the 1922 committee are likely to change the rules so that none of the above may apply
      Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
      Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

      Comment


      • #4
        Gove, Johnson, Raab, Hunt in that order according to Guido. https://order-order.com/

        The Tory members will choose a Brexiter and will choose Johnson if he is in the final two.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Snowshoveler View Post
          Hope you get better luck getting a good leader this time although almost anybody is better than May.
          Interesting. Actually I felt rather sorry for Mrs May (from where I sit a world away from the action). The situation she found herself in was not of her making, but she tried to do the best she could given the circumstances. True, she made some bad strategic mistakes along the way and : yeah- I know, the path to hell is full of good intentions.

          Who can the Tories find that can do better - and for God's sake don't let Corbyn in.
          "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
          Samuel Johnson.

          Comment


          • #6
            Ah, well. Not be long before we have another bastard Tory millionaire telling us what's best for us.

            The long toll of the brave
            Is not lost in darkness
            Over the fruitful earth
            And athwart the seas
            Hath passed the light of noble deeds
            Unquenchable forever.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Von Richter View Post
              Ah, well. Not be long before we have another bastard Tory millionaire telling us what's best for us.

              Well we've just had a bastard Republican billionaire doing just that with Trump saying ho should be chosen.
              Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
              Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Von Richter View Post
                Ah, well. Not be long before we have another bastard Tory millionaire telling us what's best for us.

                Better than a Jew hating, terrorist loving communist. Who is probably also a millionaire.
                "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by MarkV View Post
                  ...Trump saying ho should be chosen.
                  I have to say this is an awesome typo
                  It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Von Richter View Post
                    Ah, well. Not be long before we have another bastard Tory millionaire telling us what's best for us.

                    Too late. They're already telling us that we can't have Indyref 2 - not that we'll listen.
                    Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by the ace View Post

                      Too late. They're already telling us that we can't have Indyref 2 - not that we'll listen.
                      Given the poor results of the SNP in the 3 last elections, there is not much hope that the results of a second Independence Referendum would be better than those of the first one .
                      Scottish elections : 1060000 votes , down compared to the former elections . 46 %
                      British elections : 959000 votes, idem 36, 9 % (minus 13 % )
                      European elections : 594000 votes ,idem .37,8 %
                      How would a party that got 37,8 % of the votes in the last elections ( going down ) obtain a majority in a new independence referendum ?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Hi

                        When asked about the wider political gamut of policy, the silence is proverbially deafening.
                        The Brexit Party, like UKIP (remember them) will be gone after 2 election cycles, as logical people realise
                        that a protest party has limited appeal or shelf life.

                        Regards

                        Andy H
                        "You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." Churchill

                        "I'm no reactionary.Christ on the Mountain! I'm as idealistic as Hell" Eisenhower

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ljadw View Post

                          Given the poor results of the SNP in the 3 last elections, there is not much hope that the results of a second Independence Referendum would be better than those of the first one .
                          Scottish elections : 1060000 votes , down compared to the former elections . 46 %
                          British elections : 959000 votes, idem 36, 9 % (minus 13 % )
                          European elections : 594000 votes ,idem .37,8 %
                          How would a party that got 37,8 % of the votes in the last elections ( going down ) obtain a majority in a new independence referendum ?
                          The same way a party of 25,000, got 1.7 million votes in 2014 - the independence movement is far bigger than the SNP (on a side note, the SNP actually has more members in Scotland than the Conservative party has across the entire UK).
                          Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Andy H View Post
                            Hi

                            When asked about the wider political gamut of policy, the silence is proverbially deafening.
                            The Brexit Party, like UKIP (remember them) will be gone after 2 election cycles, as logical people realise
                            that a protest party has limited appeal or shelf life.

                            Regards

                            Andy H
                            This is not correct : the UKIP (which is not a protest party ) disappeared after the Brexit referendum because the UKIP voters believed that the establishment would respect the results of the referendum
                            When the UKIP voters ( 52 % ) in Britain, saw they were betrayed they voted for a new UKIP party : the Brexit party .

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Andy H View Post
                              Hi

                              When asked about the wider political gamut of policy, the silence is proverbially deafening.
                              The Brexit Party, like UKIP (remember them) will be gone after 2 election cycles, as logical people realise
                              that a protest party has limited appeal or shelf life.

                              Regards

                              Andy H
                              Not until Brexit is delivered. The failure of May's government to enact the Referendum created the party and it will stay until its objective is achieved.
                              The result in the recent Euro elections is better than anything UKIP achieved. I large part of its vote at the Euros used to be the core Conservative Party. With the Conservatives moving to the left under May a space has been created for a party on the centre right. Nature abhors a vacuum so if the Conservatives don't revert to their traditional position the Brexit Party will take it.
                              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                              Comment

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