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    Thise who have been here a while will remember that I was highly critical of Brexit back in 2016.
    I now apologise for what I posted then. The experience of the last two years has taught me that given the present situation by far the best option for the UK is to leave the EU at the end of March with no deal. No £39bn contribution to Juncker’s bar bill. A clean break. Only once we are clear can there be proper negotiations of what the future relationship will be.
    My original position in the aftermath of the referendum was to try and recreate membership in all but name but now I realise that would be the worst of both worlds, being ruled by the WU but having no way of influencing it. The ‘vassal state’ option.
    Amazingly the EU have rejected May’s own version of the client state option demonstrating that appease many only generates even mire demands. There are even bizarre threats from the Irish PM to close Irish airspace to UK planes, someone needs to show him a map and I hope he likes boats. There is no point in negotiations with the EU as things stand.
    thus the ideal solution is to exit onto WTO terms, then rzero most of our tariffs to those countries that may actually want to trade with us - US, Canada, Australia, much of Africa China, Japan infact most people other than the EU it seems.
    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

  • #2
    Why does it seem "other than EU"?
    Wisdom is personal

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Karri View Post
      Why does it seem "other than EU"?
      If you listen to the rheteototic coming out of the EU at the moment, they don’t want to trade with us. Fine, so be it. The rest of the world is a big place.
      Practically once we are out negotiations will be much easier and limited to ensuring mutually beneficial results. There is too much game playing by the EU at the moment eg the mad threat from the Irish PM for there to be any point in taking until after March 19.
      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

      Comment


      • #4
        The EU bigwigs are really concerned for the sanctity of the single market - or so they claim.

        In reality it just gives them a fig leaf to act like the proverbial scorned woman.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Surrey View Post

          If you listen to the rheteototic coming out of the EU at the moment, they don’t want to trade with us. Fine, so be it. The rest of the world is a big place.
          Practically once we are out negotiations will be much easier and limited to ensuring mutually beneficial results. There is too much game playing by the EU at the moment eg the mad threat from the Irish PM for there to be any point in taking until after March 19.
          If I listen to the EU they are negotiating a deal with you because you left EU. Why do you think that means EU doesn't want to trade with you? Is it because you are not getting the same deal as when you were in EU?
          Wisdom is personal

          Comment


          • #6
            The EU is not going to take any riska that are not absolutely necessary on behalf of a UK that is leaving. Whether the UK recognizes what constitutes potential risks to the EU common market is another matter. The problem for the UK is that these decisions by the EU are NOT necessarily going to be made in relation to the EU. As for the Irish, what the process highlights is that when fundamental interests for small EU members, viz Eire here, are on the line, then they have every chance of digging their heels in and making the rest of the EU pivot on their behalf. Which is kind of the point of the safety in numbers aspect. It relies on the Irish being able to expect the rest of the EU to back them against the UK. The UK might expect the Irish to be sold-out on behalf of the English for reasons of history, but the point of the exercise is also to test how viable such assumptions might be.

            In the end there has been rather massive British Brexit assumptions about how other should take risks, costs and hits on behalf of the UK here. Why there should be any surprise at a dearth of takers is unclear.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Surrey View Post
              Thise who have been here a while will remember that I was highly critical of Brexit back in 2016.
              I now apologise for what I posted then. The experience of the last two years has taught me that given the present situation by far the best option for the UK is to leave the EU at the end of March with no deal. No £39bn contribution to Juncker’s bar bill. A clean break. Only once we are clear can there be proper negotiations of what the future relationship will be.
              Problem with that argument is that the 'Juncker's bar bill' of £39bn is exactly what is required for a clean break. You can't have your cake and eat it too.
              My original position in the aftermath of the referendum was to try and recreate membership in all but name but now I realise that would be the worst of both worlds, being ruled by the WU but having no way of influencing it. The ‘vassal state’ option.
              This was pointed out very, very early on. If you are out, then you are out.
              Amazingly the EU have rejected May’s own version of the client state option demonstrating that appease many only generates even mire demands.
              Wrong. Reason why it has been rejected - non-surprisingly - is that it went against several of the limits EU will not be crossing. Even May's suggestion would have left UK in a position to cherry pick. It would have left the legal status and their handling ambiguous.
              thus the ideal solution is to exit onto WTO terms, then rzero most of our tariffs to those countries that may actually want to trade with us - US, Canada, Australia, much of Africa China, Japan infact most people other than the EU it seems.
              EU wants to trade with the UK - but it is not going to compromise itself just because of that.
              It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                If you listen to the rheteototic coming out of the EU at the moment, they don’t want to trade with us. Fine, so be it. The rest of the world is a big place.
                That is a severe misunderstanding of the EU position. The problem with the UK stance has all the time been the extraordinarily strange idea that they get to cherry pick the terms from what EU laid out as the limits. In marked contrast what the EU stated at start was nothing but drawing the limits - it was not a starting position for haggling.
                Practically once we are out negotiations will be much easier and limited to ensuring mutually beneficial results. There is too much game playing by the EU at the moment eg the mad threat from the Irish PM for there to be any point in taking until after March 19.
                I really doubt that.
                It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                  That is a severe misunderstanding of the EU position. The problem with the UK stance has all the time been the extraordinarily strange idea that they get to cherry pick the terms from what EU laid out as the limits. In marked contrast what the EU stated at start was nothing but drawing the limits - it was not a starting position for haggling.
                  The underlying ideas seems to have been that the EU is responsible for making Brexit a success for the UK.

                  The slightly brutal bit of the process is that the relative weight of the parties is such that the EU can actually draw inflexible lines, and the UK has apparently had to have the realization dawn that it lacks the clout to shift these.
                  Last edited by Johan Banér; 23 Jul 18, 16:15.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                    thus the ideal solution is to exit onto WTO terms, then rzero most of our tariffs to those countries that may actually want to trade with us - US, Canada, Australia, much of Africa China, Japan infact most people other than the EU it seems.
                    Why would they zero their tariffs with you? (The EU just signed a free trade agreement with Japan. Something is in the works with China. The UK might need to get in line behind the EU.)

                    Besides if you just want a free trade agreement with the EU, that's pretty easy.

                    The problem is that the UK effectively wants to remain inside the EU common market. That's doable, but the EU won't offer it unless the UK also accepts the terms for operating in it (including paying for necessary upkeep of it). And the UK ire seems to be about not being offered access to the common market as a common good that the EU should pay for the UK to cherry pick stuff from. The EU recognizes that this would constitute a humongous tragedy of the commons, and injury the common market as such. Which is why the UK will not be granted this.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I think the Britexers are in for a rude awakening in the world......your Empire went tits up in 1947 and other smaller countries have departed the so called Commonwealth, so if you think things will be like it was before, dream along.trade treatys are not arranged over night and take many years to arrange....you do not get a first place in the line up when dealing with say, Canada just because you were a member of the Commonwealth ...take a number and wait to be called......if you are dealing with that dick head Trump, no special deal for you in his "America First".....you backed out of paying your portion of EU expenses so you cant be trusted. so what gives you the impression you can just demand trade concessions......Good luck boys you will need it.....to show my disgust with the UK and its stupid decission I have returned my dual citizen (Canadian/British) passport and wont be visiting that sad little island set in a silver sea...

                      Toulon France..

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Wow-I recall you being one of the more erudite opponents to Brexit.

                        Thanks for sharing your views. Nothing beats the 'man on the ground' for a real insight into events.
                        Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                          Problem with that argument is that the 'Juncker's bar bill' of £39bn is exactly what is required for a clean break. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

                          This was pointed out very, very early on. If you are out, then you are out.

                          Wrong. Reason why it has been rejected - non-surprisingly - is that it went against several of the limits EU will not be crossing. Even May's suggestion would have left UK in a position to cherry pick. It would have left the legal status and their handling ambiguous.

                          EU wants to trade with the UK - but it is not going to compromise itself just because of that.
                          The bar bill is to cover the cost of future access to EU markets etc that would be part of a 'deal'. No deal no £39bn.

                          "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                            The bar bill is to cover the cost of future access to EU markets etc that would be part of a 'deal'. No deal no £39bn.
                            Now you are again back in your fantasy world. That is the UK share of the already agreed EU projects and budgets - things UK has already committed to. It is not in way related to the trade deals or market access. Not paying that would likely lead to a serious crisis between the UK and the EU not to mention preventing any chance of any sort of UK access (which still would need to negotiated separately).
                            It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The EU can of course cut its losses if the UK simply renegs on everything. Then they can still hammer out a post-hard-Brexit free trade agreement. But that means first going to full third nation status for trade in goods and services for the UK.

                              That's certainly doable, if the UK wants to do that. One might think it should have prepared for doing that, if it was going to do that, but that's not happened so far.

                              All of which is stuff happing on the British side (or not, as seems the case here), by necessity, and nothing to do with the EU.

                              The problem is still that the UK wants(ed)/expects(ed) the EU to jeopardize the functioning of the common market on the UK's behalf, something the EU ruled out from the word "go" in this process.

                              Comment

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