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  • Originally posted by Gooner View Post

    For when the Republic of Ireland erects a hard border with the North, breaking the GFA.

    "Bad boy Britain made me do it!"
    You really don't get it do you?
    "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
    validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
    "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

    Comment


    • Originally posted by E.D. Morel View Post

      You really don't get it do you?
      What that the Irish are alway ready to bend the knee to the Continental power?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
        They can re-enter negotiations.

        If the EU chooses not to, then it is exactly that - a choice.
        With BJ ?

        He doesn't speak German (for example), he didn't understand a word of what Merkel said I'm sure….

        Today Macron I believe ? Does he speak French ?

        And again - he isn't supported by a parliamentary majority anymore than May was, the EU negotiated with her and team for 3 years….

        They can "negotiate" 'till the cows come home, if whatever is agreed upon doesn't pass your house, it matters not 1 hoot.
        Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Gooner View Post


          They can re-enter negotiations.

          If the EU chooses not to, then it is exactly that - a choice.
          The EU would for instance be perfectly happy to return to negotiations about offering the UK a customs union, with continued unrestricted access to the EU single market, no inhibitions or restrictions. It's the UK that has clearly set down that it does not want this. And if it wants something else it's up to the UK to clearly explain what that is and how it would work in concrete terms. In particular if it doesn't want the settlement the last UK government spent the last three years negotiating.

          The EU can't chose UK government to negotiate with and has to deal with each of them in succession, in good faith and on the assumption that they do in fact represent the UK and command a majority in their own parliament. If that is not the case the EU can do nothing about it, and it certainly cannot be blamed for the situation.

          Comment


          • The UK Brexit process in general is increasingly reminding me of this:
            https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poe...the-barbarians
            Waiting for the Barbarians

            Launch Audio in a New Window
            BY C. P. CAVAFY
            TRANSLATED BY EDMUND KEELEY
            What are we waiting for, assembled in the forum?


            The barbarians are due here today.



            Why isn’t anything going on in the senate?

            Why are the senators sitting there without legislating?


            Because the barbarians are coming today.

            What’s the point of senators making laws now?

            Once the barbarians are here, they’ll do the legislating.



            Why did our emperor get up so early,

            and why is he sitting enthroned at the city’s main gate,

            in state, wearing the crown?


            Because the barbarians are coming today

            and the emperor’s waiting to receive their leader.

            He’s even got a scroll to give him,

            loaded with titles, with imposing names.



            Why have our two consuls and praetors come out today

            wearing their embroidered, their scarlet togas?

            Why have they put on bracelets with so many amethysts,

            rings sparkling with magnificent emeralds?

            Why are they carrying elegant canes

            beautifully worked in silver and gold?


            Because the barbarians are coming today

            and things like that dazzle the barbarians.



            Why don’t our distinguished orators turn up as usual

            to make their speeches, say what they have to say?


            Because the barbarians are coming today

            and they’re bored by rhetoric and public speaking.



            Why this sudden bewilderment, this confusion?

            (How serious people’s faces have become.)

            Why are the streets and squares emptying so rapidly,

            everyone going home lost in thought?


            Because night has fallen and the barbarians haven't come.

            And some of our men just in from the border say

            there are no barbarians any longer.



            Now what’s going to happen to us without barbarians?

            Those people were a kind of solution.


            C. P. Cavafy, "Waiting for the Barbarians" from C.P. Cavafy: Collected Poems. Translated by Edmund Keeley and Philip Sherrard. Translation Copyright © 1975, 1992 by Edmund Keeley and Philip Sherrard. Reproduced with permission of Princeton University Press.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Gooner View Post

              What that the Irish are alway ready to bend the knee to the Continental power?
              I was right.
              "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
              validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
              "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post
                They can "negotiate" 'till the cows come home, if whatever is agreed upon doesn't pass your house, it matters not 1 hoot.
                That is really not the EU's concern. They (should) know the current agreement is dead.

                The tricky bit for the EU is to try and make their refusal to re-enter negotiations as somehow the UK's fault.


                I see the attempts are starting already!

                Comment


                • From the start - this has been more about the UK conservative party than anything to do with reasonable UK foreign policy.

                  The referendum came about because Cameron wanted to strengthen his political position, May (reluctantly) became PM beacuse Johnson judged his time hadn't yet come, BJ now achieved his life-goal by becoming PM - and ultmately NONE of them truly ever believed Brexit was a good idea.

                  Neither does fully half of your population, wake up will ya
                  Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                    They (should) know the current agreement is dead.
                    The EU was ready for Brexit with or without or deal in March already.

                    It's really simple we deal with EU members and non-EU members today, both goods and people, it is a matter to move British stuff from one pile to the other, done.

                    The hold-up is not on this side, it's over at yours….
                    Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Game.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                      Sure, just like if you don't hand over your wallet to the mugger, you must expect to be stabbed.
                      Not at all like that. If you want to have access you need to give something for it. There is no requirement for the UK to be allowed market access at all so if the UK wants the access then it will almost certainly pay for it - and those fishing rights are pretty much it. For some strange reason you clearly assume that if the UK leaves the EU it would still be able to have full access to the EU markets - that is not how it works.
                      Fish, I repeat, are rarely a fungible commodity. Replacing the fish currently sourced in UK waters is likely to be impossible. Replacing the quantity is likely to be difficult and push even greater strain on the worlds overfished seas.
                      Still with the dream that you can tariff fish from UK fishermen but not EU fishermen in UK waters.
                      The UK has benefited from being able to sell its catch almost fresh - this has created a premium price for at least some portion of it. While the fish are fungible they are meat (in biological sense) and hence can be frozen so it is not like vegetables that actually need to be kept alive (i.e. having cellular respiration going) to avoid spoilage. This however places the UK catch in the very same category as catch from pretty much anywhere else - without premium price. Which means that the UK will not only lose its preferential access to the EU markets but will also have to compete with other sellers in those markets. No matter how i twist this i can not see the UK winning in it.

                      And sure same likely applies to the EU fish headed to the UK market, but then again the UK mostly wants cod and that is mainly Icelanding and Norwegian thing.
                      Fish farming has been around a long time. One of several the environmental drawbacks of fish farming is that the farmed fish tend to be fed more seafood than they actually produce at the end. D'oh!
                      Fish farming done outside, yes. In large nets or 'pots'. However I wasn't talking about that - the indoors farming with ecological aims is very different. The projects i linked both take place indoors. The more fishermen want to increase their catch the more common the indoors fish farming will become.
                      Replacing UK waters caught fish would require Iceland and Norway to increase their catch by about 30%. Why devastate their own stocks especially when the price they currently get is likely to increase by >30%?
                      Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't. The point i tried to get across is that there is no real possibility for the UK fishing industry to win with Brexit. Sure the UK gets full rights to its waters but the problem is that the fish there is ain't exactly palatable for the British so the industry still needs export markets. To get high price they need immediate access to a nearby large market (in order to sell fresh) - and with the current setup that ain't coming (since only such market is the EU). Without premium price and facing tariff and non-tariff barriers the UK fishing will have much, much harder time in getting anywhere in the EU markets since now instead of acting within the single market & customs union it has to act outside of the single market & customs union. There is no magical solution to the problem the UK has created for itself however.
                      It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                        That is really not the EU's concern. They (should) know the current agreement is dead.
                        It might be. The problem is that the UK's own choice do not really give much alternatives.

                        future-relationship.png
                        The tricky bit for the EU is to try and make their refusal to re-enter negotiations as somehow the UK's fault.
                        To remind you - the current agreement is the result of the UK's own red lines & the commitment to uphold the GFA. They do not give room for anything better. In other words this is what the UK wanted when those red lines were made. You could not have realistically expected that the EU would just give up on the single market and customs union did you?

                        To underline to you form the EU perspective the backstop is a massive concession made to the UK in order to salvage the Irish peace process. To be clear the EU (as a whole) does not want to grant such access to the UK after it leaves. The only real ways for there to be movement is for the UK to move or rescind some of its red lines or alternatively to actually produce and put forward a real versions of those mythical 'alternative arrangements' that the UK politicians keep blathering about like they would be the second coming. You can not expect the EU to change its own rules to solely for the benefit of the UK (especially when required changes would adversely affect the EU itself). To remind you, it is the UK that is leaving the EU - not the vice versa.
                        It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                          Not at all like that. If you want to have access you need to give something for it.

                          Yeah, I think you need to check on WTO rules before blathering on.


                          Th point i tried to get across is that there is no real possibility for the UK fishing industry to win with Brexit.
                          But you have very little idea of what you're talking about.

                          Better informed people:

                          image-3.png

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post
                            The hold-up is not on this side, it's over at yours….

                            Guido's on the money again

                            "The Prime Minister’s meetings with Chancellor Merkel on Wednesday and President Macron on Thursday will play as a precursor to a new ‘wider engagement strategy’ with European countries, Guido understands.

                            Despite overzealous media interpretations of No Deal planning, it remains the UK’s intention to deliver a deal that can pass through Parliament, and to that end bilateral conversations will ramp up following this weekend’s G7 summit. The EU will still have to drop the Backstop for meaningful FTA engagement…

                            While Michael Gove’s Cabinet Office is focused on No Deal planning domestically, Stephen Barclay’s DExEU is laying the groundwork for negotiations to reopen in four weeks’ time. The Government is not expecting the EU’s united front to crack until they see Remainer attempts to thwart the UK leaving on 31st October fail at the beginning of September. Ironically the people who are most jeopardising the chances of obtaining a fair deal and avoiding No Deal are the so-called anti-No Deal rebels

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Gooner View Post


                              Guido's on the money again

                              "The Prime Minister’s meetings with Chancellor Merkel on Wednesday and President Macron on Thursday will play as a precursor to a new ‘wider engagement strategy’ with European countries, Guido understands.

                              Despite overzealous media interpretations of No Deal planning, it remains the UK’s intention to deliver a deal that can pass through Parliament, and to that end bilateral conversations will ramp up following this weekend’s G7 summit. The EU will still have to drop the Backstop for meaningful FTA engagement…

                              While Michael Gove’s Cabinet Office is focused on No Deal planning domestically, Stephen Barclay’s DExEU is laying the groundwork for negotiations to reopen in four weeks’ time. The Government is not expecting the EU’s united front to crack until they see Remainer attempts to thwart the UK leaving on 31st October fail at the beginning of September. Ironically the people who are most jeopardising the chances of obtaining a fair deal and avoiding No Deal are the so-called anti-No Deal rebels
                              Blitz spirit and stiff upper lip, Johnny Foreigner will crack before us. That's their strategy?
                              I take it they understand that they have a much weaker hand than the EU... or maybe they don't understand.

                              "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                              validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                              "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                                It might be. The problem is that the UK's own choice do not really give much alternatives.

                                future-relationship.png

                                To remind you - the current agreement is the result of the UK's own red lines & the commitment to uphold the GFA. They do not give room for anything better. In other words this is what the UK wanted when those red lines were made. You could not have realistically expected that the EU would just give up on the single market and customs union did you?

                                To underline to you form the EU perspective the backstop is a massive concession made to the UK in order to salvage the Irish peace process. To be clear the EU (as a whole) does not want to grant such access to the UK after it leaves. The only real ways for there to be movement is for the UK to move or rescind some of its red lines or alternatively to actually produce and put forward a real versions of those mythical 'alternative arrangements' that the UK politicians keep blathering about like they would be the second coming. You can not expect the EU to change its own rules to solely for the benefit of the UK (especially when required changes would adversely affect the EU itself). To remind you, it is the UK that is leaving the EU - not the vice versa.

                                How does your red lines graph change , when Britain splits into the Heptarchy and the five potenates of Greater Druidland?
                                The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

                                Comment

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