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  • Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post

    Brussels - London 204 Euro if you want leave now €€€ - be there in 2 hours.

    That's hardly a logistic nightmare is it ?

    https://booking.eurostar.com/be-nl/t...ate=2019-07-17
    It is if what you need to shift are consignments of engineering parts or pharmaceuticals to anywhere other than London
    Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
    Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

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    • Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post

      Brussels - London 204 Euro if you want leave now €€€ - be there in 2 hours.

      That's hardly a logistic nightmare is it ?

      https://booking.eurostar.com/be-nl/t...ate=2019-07-17
      I should have been more clear. Transporting goods not people. Trucks not buses or trains.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by MarkV View Post
        It is if what you need to shift are consignments of engineering parts or pharmaceuticals to anywhere other than London
        Wasn't aware of that - and is that on account of Brexit ?

        High Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.
        Major Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Co.

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        • We can get overnight shipments (of engineered parts) to/from all of the EU from Ireland.
          We can do the same to the east coast of the USA.

          I presume that the same applies in the UK.
          "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
          validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
          "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

          Comment


          • BoJo wants a trade deal with his spiritual daddy, The Donald, and the Americans will want the UK to take their agricultural produce as part of the deal. Given that food standards are much higher in the EU than in the USA there may need to be a hard border between the EU and UK anyway.
            "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
            validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
            "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

            Comment


            • BoJo and the Tory press are now blaming Ireland for the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.
              They seem irate that the irish Prime Minister isn't selling his country out to facilitate Brexit. Quite understandable when you consider that the british Prime Minister is selling out his.
              "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
              validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
              "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

              Comment


              • Originally posted by E.D. Morel View Post
                We can get overnight shipments (of engineered parts) to/from all of the EU from Ireland.
                We can do the same to the east coast of the USA.

                I presume that the same applies in the UK.
                Yes because you already have sufficient customs staff/procedures to deal with US trade and don't need them for EU trade. Britain very probably won't have enough of these to handle EU trade after a no deal brexit. Doesn't matter how much money the Chancellor allocates for this - it takes time to recruit (including security clear) and train people and even longer to set up procedures
                Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

                Comment


                • Originally posted by E.D. Morel View Post
                  BoJo wants a trade deal with his spiritual daddy, The Donald, and the Americans will want the UK to take their agricultural produce as part of the deal. Given that food standards are much higher in the EU than in the USA there may need to be a hard border between the EU and UK anyway.
                  If the Irish chose to put up border posts then that is their business. The UK has no intention of doing so. The Continental System failed the last time it was tried and will fail again.
                  "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                    If the Irish chose to put up border posts then that is their business. The UK has no intention of doing so. The Continental System failed the last time it was tried and will fail again.
                    However we no longer have a fleet to blockade them as you seem not to have noticed
                    Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                    Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

                    Comment


                    • Nothing is decided yet, and there are a couple of ways this could run.

                      But what's consistent is that the EU cannot allow the UK to jeopardize the internal functioning of the Common Market. It's the singular achievement of the EU, the bit that really works. Allowing the UK to sabotage it with the EU's compliance won't happen. It's also why the UK's bargaining position over any of it is so singularly weak. There is literally nothing the UK can offer the other EU members that can compensate.

                      Of course the UK can set itself up as a rank spoiler of things, and decide to attempt to sabotage the EU Common Market, but then without the EU being compliant about it.

                      What's still improbable is that the Irish might chose to join it in such an endeavor. The Irish also recognize the fundamental need to safe-guard the Common Market. Which is why the UK's implicit position that the Irish should effectively join it in leaving the EU is also extremely unlikely to come to pass.

                      No-deal Brexit is going to be a mess for everyone (literally no upside anywhere). But it won't directly harm the functioning of the EU Common Market itself. The UK can intentionally try to harm it directly or indirectly, but at the very least the EU can be expected to not aid and abet any such British efforts.

                      In practical terms the Irish are likely about to experience something analogous to the Finnish experience of a sudden massive reduction in interaction with the major trading partner, in the Finnish case with the dissolution of the USSR. Things like that happen from time to time, though the UK's case looks particularly unforced and careless.
                      Last edited by Johan Banér; 01 Aug 19, 17:25.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
                        But what's consistent is that the EU cannot allow the UK to jeopardize the internal functioning of the Common Market. It's the singular achievement of the EU, the bit that really works. Allowing the UK to sabotage it with the EU's compliance won't happen. It's also why the UK's bargaining position over any of it is so singularly weak. There is literally nothing the UK can offer the other EU members that can compensate.

                        Of course the UK can set itself up as a rank spoiler of things, and decide to attempt to sabotage the EU Common Market, but then without the EU being compliant about it.
                        On basic level this means that the EU either takes hard border or an agreement similar to (or equal to) the backstop. Without there being so complicated situation with the border they might have already gone for the hard border option. However with the Irish being EU members the EU tries to find a solution which suits for them too - which is pretty much why the EU now prefers the backstop even if it is a huge concession for the EU to make but it is a price the EU is willing to pay for upholding the status quo in Northern Ireland.
                        No-deal Brexit is going to be a mess for everyone (literally no upside anywhere). But it won't directly harm the functioning of the EU Common Market itself. The UK can intentionally try to harm it directly or indirectly, but at the very least the EU can be expected to not aid and abet any such British efforts.
                        Exactly this.
                        In practical terms the Irish are likely about to experience something analogous to the Finnish experience of a sudden massive reduction in interaction with the major trading partner, in the Finnish case with the dissolution of the USSR. Things like that happen from time to time, though the UK's case looks particularly unforced and careless.
                        Not quite as bad as what the Finns suffered for multiple reasons. For one thanks to the having access to the untapped Soviet markets the Finnish producers were able to undermine the Soviet producers (and perhaps hastened the end via economic means) and were pretty much operating on a market which had no real competition. So there was plenty of industry that was build to cater the USSR needs but which couldn't easily be converted for much else. Granted that relations were on basis of 'clearing-trade' (or so it was called) in essence parties agreed on a cost for products and then transferred equal value of goods between themselves (sort of barter thing i guess) so relatively little currency moved.

                        For Ireland this is not the case. Unless they are the main producers of Marmite that is. The point is that while the Ireland will lose some markets most of what it exports is not something that simply leads to industry crashing as was the case with the Finnish 'eastern trade' - instead there is at least some chance and hope for finding suitable markets for the goods. Also even in 'hard border' scenario it doesn't mean that trade would not flow - it would just have customs & tariffs added to them making Irish products less competitive on the UK market. In the Finnish-USSR case it was more that the USSR/Russia trade simply vanished.

                        Also things like TIR carnets and similar setups may alleviate the pains of losing the landbridge - since with those the Irish transporters should be able to cross the UK without paying customs (and even bypass queues at ports). OTOH it will likely infuriate British transporters... After all while far share of the lorries & trucks from Ireland head to the UK only a small part of them actually trade goods to the UK but instead cross the Island heading to mainland. Same goes with aviation and freedom of air - and with shipping.
                        It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

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                        • Copied from a comment posted in an Irish online Newspaper;

                          Brits: We’re leaving the EU.
                          EU: Want the same trade terms?
                          Brits: No.
                          EU: You’ll need a border then.
                          Brits: No.
                          EU: Then you’ll need open borders with all WTO countries.
                          Brits: No.
                          EU: What about customs checks then?
                          Brits: They’re easy. Technology. Don’t need a border.
                          EU: How?
                          Brits: Trust us.
                          EU: Will it be in place by the time you leave?
                          Brits: No.
                          EU: Then you’ll need a border.
                          Brits: No.
                          EU: How about we keep the current agreement until you get your alternative in place?
                          Brits: No.
                          EU: Then you’ll need a border.
                          Brits: OMG WHY ARE YOU PERSECUTING ME THIS IS SO UNFAIR I HATE YOU!
                          "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                          validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                          "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

                          Comment


                          • The new Trumpian soundbite from BoJo's boys is that they want to get rid of the "Undemocratic Backstop". How can something that was negotiated by the UK government be undemocratic?
                            If anything is undemocratic it is a no-deal Brexit which is not supported by the majority of the people or their Parliament.
                            "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                            validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                            "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by E.D. Morel View Post
                              The new Trumpian soundbite from BoJo's boys is that they want to get rid of the "Undemocratic Backstop". How can something that was negotiated by the UK government be undemocratic?
                              If anything is undemocratic it is a no-deal Brexit which is not supported by the majority of the people or their Parliament.
                              Well, the EU won't ditch the backstop for... what?... nothing?

                              The backstop is already a major concession to the UK. The EU common line is going to remain to not enact anything with the UK that risks threatening the functioning of the Common Market. The backstop was asked for by the May government, and is still a mechanism that hypothetically could allow the UK to game the situation for its own benefit to some extent, and the expense of the Common Market. (Which is why it's seen as a non-trivial concession by the EU.)

                              Remove the backstop while keeping the rest of the negotiated agreement, and the UK is even freer to game things at the expense of the rest of the EU. The EU isn't going to accept that. And if that means no-deal Brexit, so be it. The BoJo government is demanding the EU shoot itself in the head on the UK's behalf, with no upside to such a course of action for the EU. There seems to be a fairly common assumption in the UK that caving to the BoJo demand on ditching the back-stop would be cost-less for the EU. It's not. It's potentially dangerous for the EU, so it wont do that.

                              Which does lead to the conclusion that the BoJo government must be aware of this, and it's the UK government's decision to completely break off negotiations with the EU like this – while refusing to come clear about what is is doing, allowing it to lie about the situation to the UK public through no-deal Brexit friendly UK media.

                              Possibly the BoJo play here is based on a set of underlying assumptions about both the Irish and continental Europeans – that they are both stupid and cowardly, and for that reason will cave eventually. Either the Irish buckle under themselves and accept British domination, or the rest of the EU sell the Irish out to BoJo for venal reasons, useless rotters that they are. (And of course if they don't they are instead unreasonable, vengeful Bonapartist Hitlerites administering punitive beatings, or the like.)

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
                                Possibly the BoJo play here is based on a set of underlying assumptions about both the Irish and continental Europeans - that they are both stupid and cowardly, and for that reason will cave eventually. Either the Irish buckle under themselves and accept British domination, or the rest of the EU sell the Irish out to BoJo for venal reasons, useless rotters that they are.
                                The biggest misconception in the Tory media at the moment is that this is some sort of plot by the Irish Government to get a united Ireland. The Party in government here is the one that signed up to Partition in the first place. The Prime Minister has consistently said that it is the wrong time for a border poll (vot on a united Ireland). The Good Friday Agreement specifically stipulates that a majority on both sides of the border is required before the country is united and, as our PM pointed out as recently as yesterday it would be counterproductive. He said "I think it would result in some of the mistakes made 100 years ago, when partition happened, being repeated but just the other way around - a huge number of people, those from a unionist, British, Ulster background, being brought into a united Ireland against their will."
                                "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                                validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                                "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

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