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  • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
    The Uk is a member of the wto so post Brexit, assuming no deal the EU would have to charge the same tariffs on goods that it charges to other wto members and vice versa.
    I merely repeated what the WTO representative had stated. UK would need to renegotiate quite a few of its agreements since other WTO member states would demand concessions.

    Independent.co.uk: No-deal Brexit: 'Not realistic' for UK to start trading under WTO rules in March, says WTO boss && Bloomberg: WTO Warns U.K. About Global Impact of No-Deal Brexit && Financial Times: WTO warns on disruption to UK of no-deal Brexit
    Given the fairly high tariff rates charged by the EU this would have the potential to reduce food prices significantly in the U.K. as excluding tariff sanctions it is much cheaper so source most food supplies from outside the EU. Same for clothing. Indeed when the UK joined the EU in the 70s there was a large price hike in food. The EU was set up with high tariffs on food imports to protect French farmers. High tariffs on cloths to protect Italian clothing manufacturers and high tariffs on cars to protect the German car industry.
    That actually depends - cost of food from the EU would climb. Cost of domestic food - assuming (as i have understood) the UK government does not fully intend to replace the EU as the source of subsidies - would rise as well. So some would rise and others would fall. However it would very likely have a cost of reducing the UK domestic production as well - after all those cheaper imports would be competing with UK's own production. So there is quite a big chance in the approach you described that while the consumer costs would go down but so would the tax revenues and the amount of tax payers. As for the EU... More accurately the EU was partly set up in such a manner (not the sole reason for it) to protect the European industries & agriculture.
    Overall for the UK a 'no deal' solution is the best, provided that we have a competent government to exploit it.
    Well - as long as there is a 'deal' about having 'no deal' that might work. Reason is simply that any deal - even one which would lead to future 'no deal' relations would still allow for the transition period to take place (until 12/2020) which would at least in some measure soften the impact. Otherwise i believe the change on 30 March 2019 could lead to a rather jerking crash.
    It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

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    • Your concern for Britain is touching;the reasons for your concern are not touching .

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
        I merely repeated what the WTO representative had stated. UK would need to renegotiate quite a few of its agreements since other WTO member states would demand concessions.

        Independent.co.uk: No-deal Brexit: 'Not realistic' for UK to start trading under WTO rules in March, says WTO boss && Bloomberg: WTO Warns U.K. About Global Impact of No-Deal Brexit && Financial Times: WTO warns on disruption to UK of no-deal Brexit

        That actually depends - cost of food from the EU would climb. Cost of domestic food - assuming (as i have understood) the UK government does not fully intend to replace the EU as the source of subsidies - would rise as well. So some would rise and others would fall. However it would very likely have a cost of reducing the UK domestic production as well - after all those cheaper imports would be competing with UK's own production. So there is quite a big chance in the approach you described that while the consumer costs would go down but so would the tax revenues and the amount of tax payers. As for the EU... More accurately the EU was partly set up in such a manner (not the sole reason for it) to protect the European industries & agriculture.

        Well - as long as there is a 'deal' about having 'no deal' that might work. Reason is simply that any deal - even one which would lead to future 'no deal' relations would still allow for the transition period to take place (until 12/2020) which would at least in some measure soften the impact. Otherwise i believe the change on 30 March 2019 could lead to a rather jerking crash.
        Cost of food from the EU may rise but then the cost of food from outside the EU would reduce significantly, assuming that the UK has a 'no deal' exit and is free to set its own tariffs.. Net lower prices. If people are paying less for food then they have more to spend on other things. It has the same effect as an increase in income. This would by a boost to demand,

        Re the transition period - it is ridiculous to have it. If it happens then it will have gone on longer than ww1.
        Last edited by Surrey; 26 Aug 18, 02:14.
        "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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        • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
          Cost of food from the EU may rise but then the cost of food from outside the EU would reduce significantly, assuming that the UK has a 'no deal' exit and is free to set its own tariffs.. Net lower prices. If people are paying less for food then they have more to spend on other things. It has the same effect as an increase in income. This would by a boost to demand,
          Which would be all nice and fluffy if it happened without a cost to the domestic producers (aka employers). However the lower prices with regards to what you stated would also mean that the domestic industry or agriculture would need to sell their products at lower cost as well - meaning either to die off due the competition or 'streamline' themselves (fancy word for 'kicking people out'). Either way that would seem to imply an increase in unemployment - sure there is going to be a massive demand for new bureaucrats since all of the functions EU has been running now need to be done domestically but those are not 'productive jobs' in the sense - meaning they are paid by the taxes.
          Re the transition period - it is ridiculous to have it. If it happens then it will have gone on longer than ww1.
          Suit yourself.
          It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

          Comment


          • Originally posted by m kenny View Post
            It appears Turkey is being lined up to cover the UK farm-produce shortage. However one problem is that Turkey will make easier access for its citizens to the UK part of any Trade Deal. India is known to be insisting on the same for any of its deals with the UK. It seems the UK is seen as an easy mark by her trading-partners-to-be!
            Compared to the EU, and especially in a situation clear-as-mud after a bungled Brexit, it will be an exceptionally easy mark.

            Of course, it was always for the UK to decide what it wanted here, and one possibility would have been for the UK to really double down on preparing for a minimum post-Brexit relationship with the EU. It's just that it hasn't.

            This is why the Brexit process as it has played out is such a problem. It's not based on any kind of hard-nosed assessment of crass reality, but on wishful thinking and some considerable British ego-stroking about its own importance in the world.

            Everywhere else tends to regard it as just stupid, an act of willful self-harm.

            As the pace quickens it is beginning to become apparent how asymetrical the actual power relationship is between Brexit Britains and the EU 27 (as long as they remains united over this, and so far they have). Post-Brexit UK was always going to be some form of "rule-taker", in the sense of being put in a position of having to negotiate from a position of relative weakness compared to more powerful entities.

            One of the weird things about the UK in the EU would seem that it has actually long shielded the UK form certain forms of realizations about it's actual place in the grand scheme of things. And the UK has been quite powerful within the EU. Which is another version of the old observation that the EU is made up of two kinds of small nations; those that have accepted this, and those that still have to face up to it. If not before the UK is likely to be forced to face this as it leaves the EU.

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            • Originally posted by m kenny View Post

              That presupposes you understand why the EU was created in the first place.



              And that confirms you have no understanding of how it is working today.
              Care to enlighten us? Or are all of the arguments, disharmony and problems reported in the media true? (BBCA)
              Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

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              • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                Care to enlighten us? Or are all of the arguments, disharmony and problems reported in the media true? (BBCA)
                #

                Ah so now the 'Mainstream Media' is to be trusted?

                Can't say I am surprised. After all anyone who believes all the Faux News stories about Muslim No Go Areas is conditioned to believe any old rubbish.


                Comment


                • Originally posted by m kenny View Post
                  #

                  Can't say I am surprised. After all anyone who believes all the Faux News stories about Muslim No Go Areas is conditioned to believe any old rubbish.
                  Ha! Ha, good 'un Mick!
                  Come to up my way and have a look at mi' model Tiger tanks. After that I'll drop you off in one of them 'mythical' Muslim No Go Areas... you're a history buff so a trip back to the eleventh century should prove most interesting!

                  The long toll of the brave
                  Is not lost in darkness
                  Over the fruitful earth
                  And athwart the seas
                  Hath passed the light of noble deeds
                  Unquenchable forever.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post

                    Care to enlighten us? Or are all of the arguments, disharmony and problems reported in the media true? (BBCA)
                    Of course they are. What that means is something else though. The EU isn't even a lose federation. It's an even loser entity for the most par. Which means arguments and disharmony means lack-of-action. But that need not mean much else. (Until this situation causes or is caught up in an actual crisis, which is when the EU famously is forced to move.)

                    But the aspect where the EU IS quite a tight package also tends to be where it matters here, i.e. the Common Market. If nothing else how keen the British still are to be part of it indicates its success. And it's the bit of the EU the other 27 members are equally keen to protect and will not compromise on the UK's behalf.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Von Richter View Post

                      Ha! Ha, good 'un Mick!
                      Come to up my way and have a look at mi' model Tiger tanks. After that I'll drop you off in one of them 'mythical' Muslim No Go Areas... you're a history buff so a trip back to the eleventh century should prove most interesting!
                      There is a big difference between a no go and a don't want to go area.
                      Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                      Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by m kenny View Post
                        #

                        Ah so now the 'Mainstream Media' is to be trusted?

                        Can't say I am surprised. After all anyone who believes all the Faux News stories about Muslim No Go Areas is conditioned to believe any old rubbish.

                        I didn't specify a source, and you are trolling in response to a thread hijack by von Richter. And this is why discussions never go anywhere on this forum.
                        Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

                        Comment


                        • Discussions go anywhere because it's not requested to post reliable info and accepting being wrong.
                          There are no Nazis in Ukraine. © Idiots

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                          • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                            Not quite. That £39bn are mostly the financial obligations UK has already signed & agreed to. The downside for not paying would be a guarantee of not having transition period until 12/2020 and a it would place UK in rather peculiar light exact at the time it is supposed to start negotiating international agreements which depend on countries upholding their obligations.
                            Without a deal the 'debt' to the EU will become like the debts of WWI - in limbo, neither written off nor serviced.

                            Perhaps we should all start servicing those debts as well

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
                              But the aspect where the EU IS quite a tight package also tends to be where it matters here, i.e. the Common Market. If nothing else how keen the British still are to be part of it indicates its success. And it's the bit of the EU the other 27 members are equally keen to protect and will not compromise on the UK's behalf.
                              Oh, here we go again. The belief in the holy sacraments of the Single Market is far less important to the EU than the need to make sure that Britain does not benefit from any exit deal - and if that means the nations of the EU also lose, so be it.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Gooner View Post

                                Without a deal the 'debt' to the EU will become like the debts of WWI - in limbo, neither written off nor serviced.

                                Perhaps we should all start servicing those debts as well
                                No they won't. If the UK simply renegs on already agreed expenditures as a full member of the EU, which is what asking for this compensation as the UK leaves is about, then clearly the EU will have to shoulder it.

                                What will be noticed elsewhere as well, is that the UK is prone to welshing on its debts. It might feel good if making a point of finding ways to "stick it to the EU", but third parties that don't care about whether the UK feels hard done by by the EU or not are also likely to notice, and conclude that the UK is in some ways a risky proposition. Which might not be what the UK wants if it's supposed to head out of the High Seas of unregulated international trade. At least not if the UK business model is supposed to be something other than piracy and swindle.

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