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  • You guys are screwed now -


    "Why is the Rum gone?"

    -Captain Jack

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    • Unfortunately sheer geographical reality "shackles" the British isles to the rest of Europe. Denying, subverting and averting this fundamental set of circumstances requires some very determined politics. Beginning with autarky in relation to the EU.

      Of course, if that is what the UK wants, it can always spend its time, money and efforts on making that happen.

      In geopolitical terms the UK on its own is a small country in a situation where economic size is becoming increasingly important. It might develop into a three-way-constest: China, US, EU. China and the US both would like to see the EU fail and disappear, a vision shared by no-deal Brexiteers.

      (The truly shocking lesson of the extent to which the EU can act as a force-multiplier in negotiations also for small countries is in how the UK-Ireland relations have developed. Ireland is in a much stronger position than the UK – bad as all UK crash-out scenarios will be for it. It is so stark it is clearly becoming this thing in British, at least conservative, politics that now Cannot Even Be Mentioned. Because doing so would mean having to confront what leverage the EU actually brings to its members, but the UK is willfully giving up by Brexiting.)

      As for no-deal providing leverage; yes that IS the Big Idea behind the reasoning of the ardent Brexiteers. The problem is that it relies on outright denial of the basic conditions on the EU SIDE, which Brexiteers consistently refuse to acknowledge, which is that the EU has already weighed up the downsides of compromising itself in relation to the UK, or accepting a UK crash-out. There is no scenario where, if the UK pushes this as some form of ultimatum, the EU will chose any other outcome than allowing the UK to crash.

      Essentially it is the UK holding a gun to its head, demanding the EU make it stop, but only by putting a bullet in its own. Unfortunate, but something that simply is not going to happen.

      If the UK MPs might actually be sufficiently aware of the realities if the situation to realize this, clearly the maker of that video hasn't. It's only a leverage if one thinks the EU contemplates choosing a greater evil over a lesser evil for itself, and for the sake of Britain.

      https://youtu.be/9fItpiN6e-k

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
        Theresa May and a few others 'negotiated' the WA, not the UK.
        Well TM (and her team) WAS the one mandated and sent by British parliament.

        So far still no one else is.

        Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
        You guys are screwed now -
        That's why I never watch clips of a beard having an opinion

        is this gentleman a member of British parliament ?
        Last edited by Snowygerry; 18 Mar 19, 07:40.
        High Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.

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        • brexit-breakdown.jpg

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          • Well yes but you can't negotiate with a referendum can you ?

            Theresa May is the only representative of yours we have - until you elect, mandate another - she's all there's is..

            If that's a failure of democracy, it is your failure, sorry.
            Last edited by Snowygerry; 18 Mar 19, 10:30.
            High Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.

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            • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
              Sure. But other countries would then in all likelihood retaliate in kind and use the exact same method for protecting themselves from the consequences. You do understand that other countries can game the system in the exact same manner? Or did you imagine that it was only a privilege afforded for the UK?
              To 'retaliate' in kind other WTO members would be unilaterally removing tariffs from UK goods and services.

              Seems the EU trolls get upset that the UK can abide by international treaty without the approval of the EU!




              Comment


              • Originally posted by Metryll View Post

                If ever Brexiter finally get a grip at what and how WTO actually run, they will launch Leave.WTO


                " The WTO

                The World Trade Organization (WTO) is the only global international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. At its heart are the WTO agreements, negotiated and signed by the bulk of the world’s trading nations and ratified in their parliaments. The goal is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible.
                What is the WTO?

                • Who we are
                  The WTO has many roles: it operates a global system of trade rules, it acts as a forum for negotiating trade agreements, it settles trade disputes between its members and it supports the needs of developing countries.
                • What we do
                  All major decisions are made by the WTO's member governments: either by ministers (who usually meet at least every two years) or by their ambassadors or delegates (who meet regularly in Geneva).
                • What we stand for
                  A number of simple, fundamental principles form the foundation of the multilateral trading system.
                • Overview
                  The primary purpose of the WTO is to open trade for the benefit of all.
                https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/thewto_e.htm


                I like the way EU mongs think that the WTO will be upset at the UK for keeping cross border trade on the island of Ireland tariff free but will be perfectly sanguine at the EU raising tariffs on the UK!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                  To 'retaliate' in kind other WTO members would be unilaterally removing tariffs from UK goods and services.
                  Not to UK goods and services. The 'in kind' would be from their perspective the exact opposite of that. To exclude the UK from using the MFN clauses - essentially force the UK trade to happen outside the protections of the WTO. After all from the point of view of those other countries that would be identical move. Or didn't you understand that part?
                  It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                  Comment


                  • You really haven't got a clue.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                      Can the current row over Brexit be the UK's version of Themistocles' Dilemma: how to get a reluctant demos to endorse the construction of a great naval fleet? While Themistocles always believed that the Persians would return to Athens in force, he also believed that he couldn't get the assembled demos to buy into the Persian threat so (according to Plutarch) Themistocles sold the Aeginetans as a genuine maritime threat to Athens' silver mines in Laurium. That was just the lever that the Archon needed to get his fleet funded by the people.

                      Fast-foward ~2,400 years, and Franklin Roosevelt ran on a strict neutrality platform, all the while knowing that war between the US and Nazi Germany was not only a forgone conclusion, but that the US' interests necessitated that the US ultimately join the war on the UK's side. In short, the whole of FDR's 1940 reelection campaign was a lie, Themistocles, FDR: both politicians, holding high executive office in their respective democracies lied to their voters because they knew better than the people. Ultimately, history proved them both right.

                      Could this scenario be repeated in the UK today over Brexit?
                      I was married for two ******* years! Hell would be like Club Med! - Sam Kinison

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                        I like the way EU mongs think that the WTO will be upset at the UK for keeping cross border trade on the island of Ireland tariff free but will be perfectly sanguine at the EU raising tariffs on the UK!
                        It's because the WTO acts when nations act through it. Various nations will be upset. The WTO lacks the central nervous system to really be bothered either way.

                        It's like with the EU. There is this tendency with Brexiters to assume that agency with EU primarily resides somewhere else than with the individual member states. And this view of the WTO is similar.

                        (That is if the machinery of the WTO doesn't just seize up from the US failing to appoint functionaries, meaning it de facto lapses as an adjudicating body altogether. The US under Trump has threatened to do precisely this. It has no interest in the WTO in whatever function the British might think it could have as protection. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1M621Y.)

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                        • Originally posted by slick_miester View Post
                          Could this scenario be repeated in the UK today over Brexit?
                          It perhaps might be said so, and there are no perfect analogies. Problem is perhaps that the situations aren't that analogous.

                          We aren't talking about a choice made with the prospect of any major war looming. We are talking about a choice that at worst means the UK becomes poorer and more insular. It's a perfectly acceptable choice, if that is what the British public actually wants. No one is going to make the UK go to war to be either a bit richer but more global-minded, or poorer and more insular. It can chose these things entirely for itself.

                          The long-standing problem is that membership in the EU has not been something the British public really wants. It might be argued they don't get the EU, but that doesn't change that it's not popular. In the long run it becomes very difficult to maintain a representative democracy and maintain an institutional order that is actually unpopular. Of course, British politicians might have chose to invest more in why EU membership is an advantage, and maybe popular opinion might have swing eventually? But they didn't. The EU has been a favourite to dump all problems on (the EU made us do it). It's actually a bit of an indictment of British democracy that such a lot of the leave voters in 2016 simply assumed the vote didn't matter. Of course it turned out it really did, which is to its credit. But the disconnect between the political class and the voter majority is clearly there.

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                          • Oh dear. The speaker has just stopped May's latest attempt to bung the Unionist another £billion to save her skin.

                            https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47614074

                            Things are getting interesting.. . . . . . . ..


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                            • Originally posted by m kenny View Post
                              Oh dear. The speaker has just stopped May's latest attempt to bung the Unionist another £billion to save her skin.

                              https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47614074

                              Things are getting interesting.. . . . . . . ..

                              And stopped a third vote on the same deal.

                              At which point does a UK government that clearly no longer governs throw in the towel and step down?

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                              • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
                                And stopped a third vote on the same deal.

                                At which point does a UK government that clearly no longer governs throw in the towel and step down?
                                Its the same loonies who wrecked John Major's Government. These people live in their own little world and are completely deranged.

                                https://www.theguardian.com/politics...liticalnews.uk

                                The situation mirrors exactly what is happening to May.


                                Mr Major comes through more clearly: "The real problem is one of a tiny majority. Don't overlook that. I could have all these clever, decisive things which people wanted me to do but I would have split the Conservative party into smithereens. And you would have said I had acted like a ham-fisted leader."

                                Mr Brunson raises the problem of the three rebel cabinet ministers who threatened resignation if Mr Major agreed to the social chapter in order to secure ratification of the Maastricht Treaty. "I'd better not mention them in this room," he says, but they are believed to be Mr Howard, Mr Lilley and Mr Portillo. Why, Mr Brunson asks, should he not simply sack them?

                                Mr Major: "Just think it through from my perspective. You are the prime minister, with a majority of 18, a party that is still harking back to a golden age that never was, and is now invented (clearly a reference to the time of Mrs Thatcher's leadership). You have three rightwing members of the Cabinet who actually resign. What happens in the parliamentary party?"

                                Mr Brunson observes that Tory MPs would create a lot of fuss, but that Mr Major is prime minister. He could easily find three new cabinet members.

                                Mr Major then bares his soul. "I could bring in other people. But where do you think most of this poison is coming from? From the dispossessed and the never-possessed. You can think of ex-ministers who are going around causing all sorts of trouble.

                                "We don't want another three more of the bastards out there. What's Lyndon Johnson's maxim?..."

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