Brexit

[Snowygerry]

It already is extended I think ?

Wasn't there somewhere in between all hysterics the sobering announcement of a "transition period" untill 2020 whereby all current arrangements would simply be maintained ?

I can very well see that being extended a number of times untill the Brexiteers have died of old age, and the referendum has lost all political relevancy...

[Gooner]

Average wages in Germany are slightly higher than in the UK.

Are they?


Yes, along with everything else.

If the Germans still had the DM, it'd probably be at a level 10-15% above the current Euro rate, so yes cheaper imports, cheaper foreign holidays etc.

Cash poor/asset rich v cash rich/asset poor. Different strokes.

[Gooner]

Sounds like the last spasm of the weird meme that was originally bandied about about how the German car industry would wring Merkel's arm, to wring everyone else's arms, and this give the UK whatever kind of cherry-picked Brexit deal it might like.

The German car industry came down on the side of the continued protection of the EU common market, even at Brexit cost.

Yeah I think the question posed and the answers given were a bit more nuanced than that.

The businessman and consumer is interested in clear rules and predictability. (Well, who knows these days, maybe not in the UK? But it's still true elsewhere.) If the UK would be allowed to screw up the EU common market ground rules for its own purposes, the compounded processes of renegotiations and potential unravelling of the common market would completely screw all clarity and predictability.

The EU negotiations team has a remit and an objective based in safe guarding the common market. The UK cake-style-proposals hasve been of the kind that it would compromise it. The UK cannot successfully propose anything that doesn't take this into consideration.

The UK has been free-trading with a big part of the rest of the world since before most of the current EU members were even countries.

The way things are going at the moment it is the EU which is getting to have its cake and eat it too.
Which is, I suppose, a price the UK will have to pay, but will have also burnt a lot of goodwill.

[Johan Banér]

The UK has been free-trading with a big part of the rest of the world since before most of the current EU members were even countries.

The way things are going at the moment it is the EU which is getting to have its cake and eat it too.
Which is, I suppose, a price the UK will have to pay, but will have also burnt a lot of goodwill.

In the end the UK will have a free trade agreement of some kind with the EU too. Whether it will be part of the common market is something else.

Japan just signed one with the EU. It does not make Japan part of the EU common market in any way shape or form.

The problem with Brexit is that somehow the UK fails to understand the EU common market it is part of. Which is weird. It's also that part of the EU which is a resounding success, and the functioning of which all other member states are very protective about. To apparent UK surprise.

The EU common market has a genetics more akin to the German 19th c. "Zollverien", than any of the free trading the UK did at the time. The first was all about integrating, the latter about passing things between still distinct entities for marginal benefit.

[Imperial]

Correct, Germany has the lowest such rate in the EU. Otoh the UK is nr 4 from the bottom, so if that's supposed to indicate slouch-levels, then the UK is no great shakes either.

Otoh the Swiss, who are SERIOUSLY in the money also compared to the Germans, have even lower rates of home ownership, by a decent margin too.

There's a fetish about home ownership in many parts of southern Europe, one of the aspects is that homes cannot be repossessed to pay for outstanding debts. Northern Europe is at times perceived as seriously inhuman since real estate (people's homes) like that can and will be expropriated. What it doesn't necessarily indicate is wealth or economic performance in general. Romania is King in this respect otherwise, 96% home ownership rate.

The state is supposed to take care of its citizens, so building homes and making them affordable to the workers is part of the social contract.
That's how things were perceived in communist Romania. Millions of apartments were built and handed out to the working citizens in exchange for a small monthly fee.
Many of them were still being paid by their owners but then the 1989 revolution took place and the new government made everyone a full and rightful owner (no further payments needed) to earn points with the people.
That's the explanation for that 96% home ownership rate.

[E.D. Morel]

Teresa May is visiting some of her EU counterparts, hoping to go behind the back of Barnier. I don't think she realises that Brexit is old news to many of those Heads of State.
There may be some real negotiation over the summer at official level, rather than at political level so logic rather than emotional nationalism may come to the fore. It doesn't matter though because come September the Tory's will have their party conference and the Brexiteers will try to our Jingo and out bluster each other. Anything agreed or even on the table for discussion will be smashed.
I expect that Boris will do his best impersonation of Churchill yet but JMR will lead the savaging.

[Arnold J Rimmer]

In the end, no matter what else happens, the USA will stand by the UK.

And as we've seen with the confrontation over NATO contributions, the EU will back down.

[E.D. Morel]

In the end, no matter what else happens, the USA will stand by the UK.

And as we've seen with the confrontation over NATO contributions, the EU will back down.

That's fine, they can all stop worrying so

[Arnold J Rimmer]

That's fine, they can all stop worrying so

Of course.

[Bow]

In the end, no matter what else happens, the USA will stand by the UK.

And as we've seen with the confrontation over NATO contributions, the EU will back down.

I think you got some of your facts mixed up....as for "US standing by the UK"......only if a dollar is to be made and IF the US can be trusted, which gets more and more dubious with your present head of state.

Toulon France.

[Snowygerry]

In the end, no matter what else happens, the USA will stand by the UK.

And as we've seen with the confrontation over NATO contributions, the EU will back down.

Yes, unless you somehow, accidentally, make the British pound crash that is...

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...d-Trump-Brexit

Pound US dollar exchange rate: GBP drops as Trump blasts Brexit plans

Very great goodly for Trumps Golf course there though, much cheaper for US Americans to become a member there now

[E.D. Morel]

It looks like the UK will offer existing EU citizens living in the UK the right to remain, even if there is a no deal Brexit. It's a smart move considering the UK's current skills shortage.

[Vaeltaja]

Sooo... Anything new - opinions, feelings, or the like - now that UK government just about made it clear that crashing out is how the Brexit is going to play out?

[Surrey]

Sooo... Anything new - opinions, feelings, or the like - now that UK government just about made it clear that crashing out is how the Brexit is going to play out?

Going the wto route is definitely better than May’s vassal state proposal.
May the end of the day Wto promises stable government and free trade, while the Chequers proposal just perpetuates instability and subjects the UK to EU rules while having no influence.

i am genuinely surprised the EU didn’t bite May’s hand off when she made her offer. She even went to Berlin to get her boss to approve and edit it before making it public.

[Vaeltaja]

Going the wto route is definitely better than May’s vassal state proposal. May the end of the day Wto promises stable government and free trade, while the Chequers proposal just perpetuates instability and subjects the UK to EU rules while having no influence.

I doubt the stable government part since the Brexit that is looming ain't the Brexit that was promised (unrealistically). But we shall see. And WTO hardly 'promises' trade. UK could already now (as part of EU) trade using WTO rules with countries outside of the EU's trade agreements - after Brexit UK still needs to get WTO agreements through - IIRC several countries have objected to UK continuing with current agreement. - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a8505946.html

i am genuinely surprised the EU didn't bite May's hand off when she made her offer.

May's proposal went against the limits the EU had set - and which the EU will not be compromising. That proposal really was doomed from the beginning. I'm rather surprised that wasn't obvious in the UK.