Brexit

[Snowygerry]

How? Why? You think that the vast quantity of paper the EU has generated over the years somehow absolves the EU Commission of any decision it makes. And it will be a decision, don't kid yourself about that.

No simply that Belgium has the obligation by treaty to apply standard EU tariffs on anything imported from outside the EU.

This is already done now, just not yet on goods from the UK, it's not really conceivable they would just forego these obligations.

Sure, but there is no need to apply physical checks on everything coming from the UK.
Though if that happens that is again confirmation that the British were right in voting to leave!

I doubt that there will be physical checks, not above those done already on goods imported from outside the EU now.

Simply put, import from the UK will move from the intra EU category to extra EU category.

More a administrative hassle than a serious problem.

Edit, all these practical issues have been clearly stipulated beforehand btw.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info...ded-tax_en.pdf

[Johan Banér]

This was always going to end up as a extended period of negotiations, likely to last years.

Unless the UK seriously suggest pulling a North Korea, and fo full-autarky, the whole no-deal Brexit has always been a fantasy.

Geography itself says the UK will end up in negotiations with the EU.

The withdrawal agreement is just a preliminary to the actual negotiations.

Unless the UK somehow decides to scrap the leaving altogether, this is stil what we are looking at. (That would mean another kind of unwanted mess, but at least it would mean a change.)

Except whatever credibility the UK govt might have had going into these negotiations has now probably been spent on the insanity of the preliminary lead-up to these negotiations.

Not sure who is going to believe anything the UK govt says? It clearly cannot deliver anyway.

[Gooner]

standard EU tariffs on anything imported from outside the EU.

There is no such thing.

Under WTO rules however, the EU and the UK can continue to trade tariff free whilst a trade agreement is negotiated.

[Gooner]

This was always going to end up as a extended period of negotiations, likely to last years.

Discussions and sometimes negotiations will go on between the UK and the EU for the forseeable future. They will be conducted between equals.
The EU have approached these whole negotiations, as have the UK side TBH, as between a vassal and a suzerain.

[Snowygerry]

There is no such thing.

Under WTO rules however, the EU and the UK can continue to trade tariff free whilst a trade agreement is negotiated.

From my link above :

Instead, as of the withdrawal date, supplies and movements of goods between the EU and the United Kingdom are subject to the VAT rules on imports and exports. This implies that goods which are brought into the VAT territory of the EU from the United Kingdom or are to be taken out of that territory for transport to the United Kingdom, will be subject to customs supervision and may be subject to customs controls in accordance with Regulation (EU) No 952/2013 of 9 October 2013 laying down the Union Customs Code.8

The actual regulation mentioned above is here, forgive me for not reading it - that's why we pay the EU bureaucrats after all

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-cont...013R0952&rid=1

[Gooner]

"implies" and "maybe" Again don't kid yourself that there are Orders they have to follow. Tariffs will be a choice.

[Johan Banér]

Discussions and sometimes negotiations will go on between the UK and the EU for the forseeable future. They will be conducted between equals.
The EU have approached these whole negotiations, as have the UK side TBH, as between a vassal and a suzerain.

BS.

The EU has approached it from a legal point of view. Since it's how the EU as an institution operates. It's not going to change in that respect either.

Not that it matters since the UK will endlessly blame it for everything regardless...

[Snowygerry]

Well it's not an order - it's a regulation following from a treaty ratified by the Belgian government and parliament, I expect it to be implemented even if you don't.

We'll see soon enough

[Vaeltaja]

Except that it doesn't. Pesky Article 24 and common sense dictate that it needn't.

As discussed previously it doesn't mean that.

Start from here: https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/31/...ronews-answers - it requires mutual agreement and actual plan for a real end deal.

Animated video for you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4 - which explains it quite well. In essence (i) it can be vetoed by any of the WTO member states, (ii) requires mutual accent from the EU and the UK - and requires there to be real framework for a plan to begin with.

Bloomberg's take on it: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...exit-purgatory

Long story short - no. It is not an realistic option. It would be if the UK and the EU had already almost finalized trade deal and needed just a tad more time to resolve it. As it stands, there is no frameworks for that and no problems in it either. So that article 24 is just another Brexit pipedream.

[Vaeltaja]

What is bizarre watching the UK Parliament live feed (i understood that the votes would be, hence i tuned in but it appears it is still few hours from now - it is just too brilliant theater to miss) is that how exactly would the unity in the UK Parliament affect negotiations in any manner? I mean the EU negotiation points (four freedoms, Irish border, etc.) are not in any way dependent on the UK side. The points the EU made are something which the EU can not yield on regardless of the UK stance or unity.

[Metryll]

A withdrawal agreement is more important to the EU than it is to the UK.
The only danger from a no deal exit is the capriciousness of the EU Commission.
The Commissions potential for malice is of course a good justification of the British peoples decision to leave the EU, nicht wahr?

The Commission play no part in deal other than assisting Barnier. Blonk...

[Gooner]

The EU has approached it from a legal point of view. Since it's how the EU as an institution operates. It's not going to change in that respect either.

The appointment of Martin Selmayr as Secretary General?

[Gooner]

The Commission play no part in deal other than assisting Barnier. Blonk...

Duh! And who makes the decision after Barnier & co. fail to make a deal?

[Gooner]

Start from here: https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/31/...ronews-answers - it requires mutual agreement and actual plan for a real end deal.

Duh, yes. Doesn't the EU want a trade deal?

It can be vetoed by any of the WTO member states,

No. Any WTO member can object to it, but only on non-spurious grounds.

Long story short - no. It is not an realistic option. It would be if the UK and the EU had already almost finalized trade deal and needed just a tad more time to resolve it. As it stands, there is no frameworks for that and no problems in it either. So that article 24 is just another Brexit pipedream.

The WTO likes world trade. They do not like global economic shocks. The WTO would like the the UK and the EU to continue free and as frictionless trade as possible. Their rules permit this.
The EU doesn't want to encourager les autres will therefore ...

As far as I am concerned I quite like the idea in a collapse in EU-UK trade

[Vaeltaja]

Duh! And who makes the decision after Barnier & co. fail to make a deal?

Either the European Council or the Council of the European Union - depending how it turns out.