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  • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
    Yes it was, it was the still alliance in effect in 1914. It was the basis of French calculations about a possible war with Germany all along. The Franco-Russian alliance was an absolute game-changer in continental European politics, since it meant the potential for situations where the French could envisage defeating Germany was at hand again.

    What's throwing you off is that the alliance system didn't require close coordination, or common policies, and had secret clauses, meaning everyone's calculations of the effects of their actions would be more or less off kelter all the time since no one could be exactly sure what everyone had agreed to, or not. Like in 1914. It could have started in 1912 too, except it didn't.
    That is totally wrong : every time when Russia was in trouble, France looked the other way,every time France was in trouble, Russia looked the other way .When in 1914 Germany attacked Russia, France looked the other way : it did NOT declare war on Germany .
    It was the same for Germany and Austria .

    Comment


    • Germany attacked Russia in 1914 and France looked away?

      The treaty


      The Franco-Russian Alliance Military Convention - August 18, 1892


      France and Russia, being animated by a common desire to preserve peace, and having no other object than to meet the necessities of a defensive war, provoked by an attack of the forces of the Triple Alliance against either of them, have agreed upon the following provisions:

      1. If France is attacked by Germany, or by Italy supported by Germany, Russia shall employ all her available forces to attack Germany.

      If Russia is attacked by Germany, or by Austria supported by Germany, France shall employ all her available forces to attack Germany.

      2. In case the forces of the Triple Alliance, or of any one of the Powers belonging to it, should be mobilized, France and Russia, at the first news of this event and without previous agreement being necessary, shall mobilize immediately and simultaneously the whole of their forces, and shall transport them as far as possible to their frontiers.

      3. The available forces to be employed against Germany shall be, on the part of France, 1,300,000 men, on the part of Russia, 700,000 or 800,000 men.

      These forces shall engage to the full with such speed that Germany will have to fight simultaneously on the East and on the West.

      4. The General Staffs of the Armies of the two countries shall cooperate with each other at all times in the preparation and facilitation of the execution of the measures mentioned above.

      They shall communicate with each other, while there is still peace, all information relative to the armies of the Triple Alliance which is already in their possession or shall come into their possession.

      Ways and means of corresponding in time of war shall be studied and worked out in advance.

      5. France and Russia shall not conclude peace separately.

      6. The present Convention shall have the same duration as the Triple Alliance.

      7. All the clauses enumerated above shall be kept absolutely secret.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by BELGRAVE
        Surely the tragedy of Germany in the first half of the 20th.century was ,through bullying diplomacy and rampant militarism, that she was the author of her own defeat
        That's certainly one way of looking at it and after 100 years of ongoing anti-German propaganda something that appeals to many people, throw in the holocaust and it helps to further reinforce the narrative and belief of the Germans being a threat to western civilization about to embark on a global conquest with the Prussian Germans leading the way.

        Another way of looking at it would be that they emerged too late as a unified nation, in a few short years she reached the dominant position militarily, economically, culturally and scientifically, which didn't take them long, a position for which they were greatly admired but also a position the English and French despised and feared them for, and since she arrived so late she upset the balance of power the English and French had agreed upon among themselves should rule. They simply couldn't tolerate the upstart and sought to destroy her while there were still time.

        The biggest mistake they did wasn't unification, it was that they couldn't manage to unify completely as a people, this meant that although she was THE power, she was still not strong enough to NOT be challenged and therefore be accepted and left alone. They failed to get the Austrian Germans into the fold completing the unification.

        Fast forward to present day and Germany faces similar problems of those she faced after the unification in 1871, she’s yet again the strongest nation but not strong enough and she's yet again beginning to be demonized, some call her the Fourth Reich, and this takes place at a time in history when she is ”only” the economic power, mind you. not also militarily, culturally and scientifically those days are long since gone. She was amputated after the two wars and what is left of Germany today is not enough for her to ever regain that position again, not even, for the sake of argument, she were to unify with the Austrian Germans again. It would strengthen her economic position and Industrial prowess but that's it.


        If anything BELGRAVE the Germans were always victims of their own success.


        Originally posted by Gooner
        Germanys was running out of time as the leading power in Europe. Russia was on course to succeed it as the continents leading economy and military power. That is why Germany started the war – preventative
        Germany wasn't running out of time as leading power her time had just begun, as for Russia she was in trouble the Tsar had problems implementing reforms and revolutionary winds were spreading throughout the country. His attack on Germany promptly led to his downfall which later led to the communist revolution....after which Russia never became the economic power she perhaps could have been.

        It should be pointed out that although Russia were always rich on resources, she was also always struggling with being backwards and behind the times, one of the reasons for why Catherine the great, back in the day, tried bring Russia up to speed by inviting fellow Germans into Russia to address some of these issues. Having resources is not enough if you don't have the industrial might and know-how and culture needed to put it to good use.


        To help illustrate this you can look at developing countries rich of natural resources,
        Last edited by walle; 02 Oct 18, 20:49.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by walle View Post
          If anything BELGRAVE the Germans were always victims of their own success.
          Yeah, that and declaring war on the United States


          Germany wasn't running out of time as leading power her time had just begun, as for Russia she was in trouble the Tsar had problems implementing reforms and revolutionary winds were spreading throughout the country. He’s attack on Germany promptly led to his fall which later led to the communist revolution....after which Russia never became the economic power she perhaps could have been.

          It should be pointed out that although Russia were always rich on resources, she was also always struggling with being backwards and behind the times, one of the reasons for why Catherine the great, back in the day, tried bring Russia up to speed by inviting fellow Germans into Russia to address some of these issues. Having resources is not enough if you don't have the industrial might and know-how and culture needed to put it to good use.
          Populations 1913:
          Germany - 65 million
          Russia - 170 million

          Share of world economy 1913:
          Germany - 8.8%
          Russia - 8.6%

          GDP Growth 1913:
          Germany 2.5%
          Russia - 3.5%

          Russia's unlimited natural resources would allow them to concentrate their industrialisation on armaments - as indeed the Soviet Union did.

          Also the world by 1914 was leaving the coal age and entering the oil age. Germany had no oil.

          Comment


          • And if we go back to Brexit the EU is telling May that she can't dictate terms, for the Xth time now. It seems like her own part and allies are starting to work against her too.

            https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rthern-ireland
            Wisdom is personal

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Gooner
              Populations 1913:
              Germany - 65 million
              Russia - 170 million

              Share of world economy 1913:
              Germany - 8.8%
              Russia - 8.6%

              GDP Growth 1913:
              Germany 2.5%
              Russia - 3.5%
              Those numbers may appear impressive at first glance but as we all know they do not revel the complete picture, and GDP is a poor overall measure.

              I've previously touched upon Russia always being backwards and behind the times, this improved somewhat after the war with access to German intellectual property, including German scientists, which for instance helped them become the first nation to put a man into lower orbit, but not before they put a dog up there.

              It’s been said we received most of the bureaucrats and the Russians most of the engineers.

              This is not to, in anyway, take away Russian accomplishments in accordance to their own abilities suggesting they are morons, they’re not.

              Regardless.
              They were always trailing behind and their economic system under communism was never sustainable long term thus doomed to fail, furthermore, for you to prosper as a nation you need to have a production based economy and sell goods that other nations both require and also wants to buy.

              That was Germany back then, that is Germany economically today. It was hardly ever Russia. Mass production of tanks MAY put you on top in terms of military capability for a while, but that still leaves the other three areas wanting.

              Originally posted by Gooner
              Also the world by 1914 was leaving the coal age and entering the oil age. Germany had no oil
              Germany still doesn’t have any oil.



              Edit.
              However Gooner, if you inferred to self sustainability alone, as in not being dependent on other nations for any resources at all, bringing up access to oil as your argument for shift in power? Well then the dynamics changes a bit, certainly.
              Last edited by walle; 02 Oct 18, 12:07.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Karri View Post
                And if we go back to Brexit the EU is telling May that she can't dictate terms, for the Xth time now. It seems like her own part and allies are starting to work against her too.

                https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rthern-ireland
                With risk of coming across as somewhat conspiratorial,

                it seems more and more like Brexit is deliberately being thwarted and that it's sold to the English public as incompetence. It wouldn't surprise me if the establishment began a push for a second referendum soon. I’m sure most English at this point would vote to remain, then onto bringing England in to the Euro.
                Last edited by walle; 02 Oct 18, 12:25.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by walle View Post

                  With risk of coming across as somewhat conspiratorial,

                  it seems more and more like Brexit is deliberately being thwarted and that it's sold to the English public as incompetence. It wouldn't surprise me if the establishment began a push for a second referendum soon. I’m sure most English at this point would vote to remain, then onto bringing England in to the Euro.
                  Perhaps it just is incompetence?
                  Wisdom is personal

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Karri View Post

                    Perhaps it just is incompetence?
                    A conspiracy by some perhaps, but incompetence of others. Certainly the Civil Service want to stay in. May is incompetent generally - look at the 2017 general election campaign - so she would need no conspiracy to mess up.
                    "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Karri View Post
                      And if we go back to Brexit the EU is telling May that she can't dictate terms, for the Xth time now. It seems like her own part and allies are starting to work against her too.

                      https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rthern-ireland
                      At the end of the day it will be who blinks first. We thus need to lock May in a dark dungeon until 1st April so that she cannot sign anything.
                      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                      Comment


                      • What substantial does Johnson have to contribute? Does he have decent proposals (apart from quitting the EU cold Turkey style?)
                        "For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return"

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by walle View Post
                          That's certainly one way of looking at it and after 100 years of ongoing anti-German propaganda something that appeals too many people, throw in the holocaust and it helps to further reinforce the narrative and belief of the Germans being a threat to western civilization about to embark on a global conquest with the Prussian Germans leading they way.

                          Another way of looking at it would be that they emerged too late as a unified nation, in a few short years she reached the dominant position militarily, economically, culturally and scientifically, which didn't take them long, a position for which they were greatly admired but also a position the English and French despised and feared them for, and since she arrived so late she upset the balance of power the English and French had agreed upon among themselves should rule. They simply couldn't tolerate the upstart and sought to destroy her while there were still time.

                          The biggest mistake they did wasn't unification, it was that they couldn't manage to unify completely as a people, this meant that although she was THE power, she was still not strong enough to NOT be challenged and therefore be accepted and left alone. They failed to get the Austrian Germans into the fold completing the unification.

                          Fast forward to present day and Germany faces similar problems of those she faced after the unification in 1871, she’s yet again the strongest nation but not strong enough and she's yet again beginning to be demonized, some call her the Fourth Reich, and this takes place at a time in history when she is ”only” the economic power, mind you. not also militarily, culturally and scientifically those days are long since gone. She was amputated after the two wars and what is left of Germany today is not enough for her to ever regain that position again, not even, for the sake of argument, she were to unify with the Austrian Germans again. It would strengthen her economic position and Industrial prowess but that's it.


                          If anything BELGRAVE the Germans were always victims of their own success.




                          Germany wasn't running out of time as leading power her time had just begun, as for Russia she was in trouble the Tsar had problems implementing reforms and revolutionary winds were spreading throughout the country. He’s attack on Germany promptly led to his fall which later led to the communist revolution....after which Russia never became the economic power she perhaps could have been.

                          It should be pointed out that although Russia were always rich on resources, she was also always struggling with being backwards and behind the times, one of the reasons for why Catherine the great, back in the day, tried bring Russia up to speed by inviting fellow Germans into Russia to address some of these issues. Having resources is not enough if you don't have the industrial might and know-how and culture needed to put it to good use.


                          To help illustrate this you can look at developing countries rich of natural resources,
                          All of which carries weight, but it's not all anti-German propaganda. The undoubted success of post-unification Germany was all sabotaged by a truly woeful standard of diplomacy ever since the dismissal of Bismarck. It's undeniable that German progress in other fields was nullified by sheer naked aggression towards her neighbours;-the matter of the invasion of Belgium for military convenience. for example. How can that be explained away ?

                          No matter how it might be thought that Germany was a victim of jealous rivals and"enciclement": in actual fact -as an example- German ships and trade were welcomed throughtout the British Empire; a strange way of expressing "despise and fear"".

                          A similar point of view was expressed by Professor Fritz Fischer in his Griff nach der Weltmacht " (Grasp for World Power") .Fischer sees a consistancy between Germany's war aims in both First and Second World Wars : a desire to achieve "World Power"' not only through economic domination but by military conquest. The Treaty of Best Litovsk of 1918 imposed upon Russia ,for example,provides a perfect case study for German war aims in practise.

                          "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
                          Samuel Johnson.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post
                            No matter how it might be thought that Germany was a victim of jealous rivals and"enciclement": in actual fact -as an example- German ships and trade were welcomed throughtout the British Empire; a strange way of expressing "despise and fear"".
                            Indeed. If Britain was truly anxious about rising German power all they needed to do was slap tariffs on German exports to Britain and Empire - the UK was there largest export market - just as Trump is doing on China today.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                              At the end of the day it will be who blinks first.
                              The problem here is that the EU can't blink on certain matters. If that is impossible for the UK to accept then the no-deal is the only possibility.
                              It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                                The problem here is that the EU can't blink on certain matters. If that is impossible for the UK to accept then the no-deal is the only possibility.
                                No deal, as I have said isn't so bad. Despite media stories that the Earth would stop spinning or the UK would disappear under the sea I think we would do just fine.

                                and we save our money.....
                                Last edited by Surrey; 03 Oct 18, 09:14.
                                "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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