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  • Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post

    As I understand it, all Mrs May is trying to do is cut the best deal she can for Britain given that Brexit is a fact:- an opt-quoted expression of the "Will Of The People". (Vox populi non est vox Dei)
    The way it now reads is that May took two years to come up with the Chequers plan. Already on arrival it was comprehensively panned by virtually everyone who might matter on the EU 27 side. Still, May had her govt try to sidestep the Barnier team by trying to directly approach the EU 27 govts individually, only to have it confirmed that there were no takers, and Barnier's mandate is as strong as ever.

    Despite these valuable lessons learned (or should have been) she has doubled down on them, only to have what should already have been known confirmed (while insulting the EU 27 political leaders in the process). Sticking to your guns is one thing, but she would have known by now she's shooting duds here, and this is just pig-headedness. Predictably though, it can still play rather well with the UK domestic political scene.

    So now we're in a situation where May is off in a huff over the temerity of the EU demanding the UK come up with a workable alternative to Chequers, after first making the EU wait two years for Chequers, and being told in no uncertain terms that Chequers was a non-starter, only to present it as the ONLY starter the EU was ever going to get from the UK.

    As a negotiation tactic it is threatening to jump off that proverbial cliff and daring the EU 27 to stop the UK by entertaining Chequers. The EU doesn't actually want to see the UK go over, but it's not going to act in any fashion that adds further risk to itself. The bad effects of the UK crashing out is being weighed against the potential problems of catering to it, and so far the UK doesn't get much play out of that. Unfortunately it seems highly unclear if it is fully understood in the UK how the EU arrives at these conclusions due to lack of apparent interest in what's going on outside the UK, beginning with the May government.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
      The way it now reads is that May took two years to come up with the Chequers plan. Already on arrival it was comprehensively panned by virtually everyone who might matter on the EU 27 side. Still, May had her govt try to sidestep the Barnier team by trying to directly approach the EU 27 govts individually, only to have it confirmed that there were no takers, and Barnier's mandate is as strong as ever.

      Despite these valuable lessons learned (or should have been) she has doubled down on them, only to have what should already have been known confirmed (while insulting the EU 27 political leaders in the process). Sticking to your guns is one thing, but she would have known by now she's shooting duds here, and this is just pig-headedness. Predictably though, it can still play rather well with the UK domestic political scene.

      So now we're in a situation where May is off in a huff over the temerity of the EU demanding the UK come up with a workable alternative to Chequers, after first making the EU wait two years for Chequers, and being told in no uncertain terms that Chequers was a non-starter, only to present it as the ONLY starter the EU was ever going to get from the UK.

      As a negotiation tactic it is threatening to jump off that proverbial cliff and daring the EU 27 to stop the UK by entertaining Chequers. The EU doesn't actually want to see the UK go over, but it's not going to act in any fashion that adds further risk to itself. The bad effects of the UK crashing out is being weighed against the potential problems of catering to it, and so far the UK doesn't get much play out of that. Unfortunately it seems highly unclear if it is fully understood in the UK how the EU arrives at these conclusions due to lack of apparent interest in what's going on outside the UK, beginning with the May government.
      Interesting stuff. Do you think the EU is of one mind regarding the negotiations, or can you discern differences in attitude between the 27 component members ?
      My own view is that Brexit is a mistake, but as I've not lived in the UK for over forty years,I really don't know the spirit prevailling in the community at large.
      "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
      Samuel Johnson.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

        Why would we pay for something we do not want?
        Because you have already agreed to do so.
        If you agreed to build a house with a group of people but, when it was near completion, decided that you no longer wanted to live there you would still have to pay your share of the costs. It's the same thing.

        "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
        validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
        "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

        Comment


        • Originally posted by E.D. Morel View Post
          Because you have already agreed to do so.
          If you agreed to build a house with a group of people but, when it was near completion, decided that you no longer wanted to live there you would still have to pay your share of the costs. It's the same thing.
          No it isn't. To use your house analogy, one can agree a price with a seller but nothing is binding until exchange of contracts and it is very common for one or other side to pull out before exchange. We are pulling out. We have decided in a high turnout referendum that the benefits from EU membership are not worth the costs

          The only decision now to make is whether going through a transition period and having a potentially favourable post exit trade deal are worth the costs. At present it looks like it isn't. If the EU wants us to buy their exit package as opposed to just waling away they have to give us a bit more value.

          .
          It is somewhat amusing to hear various left wing types heaping criticism on ordinary working class people, essentially saying that they aren't bright enough to vote.
          "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

          Comment


          • Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post

            Interesting stuff. Do you think the EU is of one mind regarding the negotiations, or can you discern differences in attitude between the 27 component members ?
            May's Chequers plan had so little support over here, its no surprise there is little support for it among the EU members.
            OTOH if all that separates the UK and the EU coming to a good deal is the Commissions insistence on a hard border in Ireland, there will be little prospect of unity in the EU member states IMO.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post

              Interesting stuff. Do you think the EU is of one mind regarding the negotiations, or can you discern differences in attitude between the 27 component members ?
              My own view is that Brexit is a mistake, but as I've not lived in the UK for over forty years,I really don't know the spirit prevailling in the community at large.
              Inflections can vary a bit, but the EU 27 has been VERY consistent on the basic principles. They are in considerable agreement on what's what as far as they are concerned, and that Barnier and his team has their mandate. And the May government DID test the waters for the sidelining, or at least undercutting a bit, of Barnier, only to find the EU being quite united and consistent on what his mandate is, and that they have not changed their minds. Not even Orban, who would otherwise LOVE to stick it to the EU in its present configuration, has said a peep to the contrary. (He doesn't want to leave or dismantle the EU, he wants to take it over from the inside and reshape it in his Hungarian image.)

              The astonishing thing in the view form the continent is that apparently the May government has been entirely information resistant to all this. There were seemingly obvious lessons from trying to appeal directly to the EU 27 governments, and why that wasn't going to work, and it just doesn't seem to have registered with the UK government so far.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Surrey View Post

                No it isn't. To use your house analogy, one can agree a price with a seller but nothing is binding until exchange of contracts and it is very common for one or other side to pull out before exchange. We are pulling out. We have decided in a high turnout referendum that the benefits from EU membership are not worth the costs

                The only decision now to make is whether going through a transition period and having a potentially favourable post exit trade deal are worth the costs. At present it looks like it isn't. If the EU wants us to buy their exit package as opposed to just waling away they have to give us a bit more value.
                Keeping with that analogy; the house is already under construction; the spending has been committed to.

                .
                Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                It is somewhat amusing to hear various left wing types heaping criticism on ordinary working class people, essentially saying that they aren't bright enough to vote.
                On that I agree.

                I do find it ironic that the Single Market exists largely due to the vision of Lord Cockfield and Margaret Thatcher. It is largely a UK construct. Not the same Tory Party, led by those who sanctify Thatcher, are leaving it.


                "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                  May's Chequers plan had so little support over here, its no surprise there is little support for it among the EU members.
                  The disaster May faced in Salzburg was apparently her own doing - https://www.theguardian.com/politics...akfast-blunder && https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/s...-may-3tbfmgkj0 (paywall) - either she or then the total misunderstanding the British in general have with regards to the EU. The EU has said quite a few times that playing the role of the perfidious Albion and trying to weasel bilateral agreements ain't going to fly.
                  OTOH if all that separates the UK and the EU coming to a good deal is the Commissions insistence on a hard border in Ireland, there will be little prospect of unity in the EU member states IMO.
                  How come? Please do explain.

                  Besides the EU Commission (or the EU as a whole) does not want there to be a hard border in Ireland. However the EU will not compromise itself because of that. If the only solution that doesn't compromise the EU is a hard border then the hard border it shall be. But do not think that the EU would like or want it - it really doesn't. There just aren't all that many options.
                  It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                    How come? Please do explain.
                    Simple enough. Not all EU citizens are quite as devoted to the project as you and Baner,

                    Besides the EU Commission (or the EU as a whole) does not want there to be a hard border in Ireland. However the EU will not compromise itself because of that. If the only solution that doesn't compromise the EU is a hard border then the hard border it shall be. But do not think that the EU would like or want it - it really doesn't. There just aren't all that many options.
                    The only hard border the EU commission can impose is one that encompasses Ireland.

                    Or are you so delusional you think the EU can make the UK put one in Northern Ireland?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                      Simple enough. Not all EU citizens are quite as devoted to the project as you and Baner,
                      Nothing so far indicates that. And May's spectacular flop in Salzburg was exactly a result of making the same assumption you are now repeating. So the evidence hints to the exact opposite of what you are arguing.
                      The only hard border the EU commission can impose is one that encompasses Ireland.
                      Encompasses? No. After the UK leaves, if there is no agreement, the EU has no other alternative than to force a border between RoI and N.I. It is a direct consequences of the UK's decision and blame for it will go the Brexit.
                      Or are you so delusional you think the EU can make the UK put one in Northern Ireland?
                      That is really strange thinking from you. After the UK has left the EU can't make it really do a thing. However other factors will. Lack of border controls would likely be seen by WTO traders as being indicative of 0-tariff status afforded to goods from another country. Which per the WTO's (you know the organization the Brexit pushing people claim to love but apparently know very little about) forces the UK to yield per MFN same 0-tariff to other WTO member states as well.

                      It doesn't matter to the EU any longer at that point - apart from being able to just shove in goods into the UK - but the UK producers (manufacturing, fishing, agriculture) would likely want to avoid that.
                      It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                        Nothing so far indicates that. And May's spectacular flop in Salzburg was exactly a result of making the same assumption you are now repeating. So the evidence hints to the exact opposite of what you are arguing.
                        You're as clueless as May. No country was enthusiastic about the Chequers plan, including the UK.

                        Encompasses? No. After the UK leaves, if there is no agreement, the EU has no other alternative than to force a border between RoI and N.I. It is a direct consequences of the UK's decision and blame for it will go the Brexit.

                        That is really strange thinking from you. After the UK has left the EU can't make it really do a thing. However other factors will.
                        There you go again saying the EU can force a hard border. It can't, not even in the Republic of Ireland.
                        The EU commission is really going to isolate itself if it plays this card too hard.

                        Lack of border controls would likely be seen by WTO traders as being indicative of 0-tariff status afforded to goods from another country. Which per the WTO's (you know the organization the Brexit pushing people claim to love but apparently know very little about) forces the UK to yield per MFN same 0-tariff to other WTO member states as well.

                        It doesn't matter to the EU any longer at that point - apart from being able to just shove in goods into the UK - but the UK producers (manufacturing, fishing, agriculture) would likely want to avoid that.
                        Your WTO interpretation has already been proven wrong.
                        In the real world businesses abide by the laws and pay their taxes.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                          You're as clueless as May. No country was enthusiastic about the Chequers plan, including the UK.
                          Yet it was based on the very same assumptions you keep repeating. Perhaps you ought to take a lesson on how well it was received.
                          There you go again saying the EU can force a hard border. It can't, not even in the Republic of Ireland.
                          The EU commission is really going to isolate itself if it plays this card too hard.
                          Actually it can. If the UK leaves their side unchecked that is UK's problem and so are the consequences thereof. The real irony in your argument is that only party isolating itself currently is the UK.
                          Your WTO interpretation has already been proven wrong.
                          In the real world businesses abide by the laws and pay their taxes.
                          That is rather strange argument from you since you clearly are clueless with regards to the WTO. Lack of control over the tariffs (aka border checks) would be interpreted as having no tariffs. Which per the most favored nation clause would mean that the UK would need to extend that to all imports.
                          It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
                            That is rather strange argument from you since you clearly are clueless with regards to the WTO. Lack of control over the tariffs (aka border checks) would be interpreted as having no tariffs. Which per the most favored nation clause would mean that the UK would need to extend that to all imports.
                            Well, the middle ground would seem to be that the UK can try to interpret the WTO rules as it likes, but then risks being deluged by lawsuits at the WTO. Depends a bit of how much of a trading opportunity other countries sense there. And on how well the WTO itself holds up. It's not a given that the WTO will be around for all that much longer.

                            I guess the UK could always try to trade on bilateral deals only? But it wouldn't seem the UK has that many options to trade on WTO rules, and would rather have to come out as the WTO's Public Enemy Nr 1, alongside Trump, then?

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Johan Banér View Post
                              Well, the middle ground would seem to be that the UK can try to interpret the WTO rules as it likes, but then risks being deluged by lawsuits at the WTO. Depends a bit of how much of a trading opportunity other countries sense there. And on how well the WTO itself holds up. It's not a given that the WTO will be around for all that much longer.
                              True. But I'm not quite sure how the lack of WTO would be much of an aid to the UK either in the case it does fall. After all the changes Trump and the lot want are of the type which would be rather detrimental to the UK if i have understood the matter correctly.
                              I guess the UK could always try to trade on bilateral deals only? But it wouldn't seem the UK has that many options to trade on WTO rules, and would rather have to come out as the WTO's Public Enemy Nr 1, alongside Trump, then?
                              Like in the 'good old days' before GATT that is?
                              Last edited by Vaeltaja; 25 Sep 18, 04:20.
                              It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                              Comment


                              • https://www.investopedia.com/article...it-effects.asp

                                As I have said before. We could just zero our tariffs from April 19. Reducing tariffs will counter the inflationary pressures currently building in the UK economy and enable interest rates to be kept low encouraging investment.

                                The UK economy is heavily service based - 80% and is consumer driven. it is more similar to the US rather than Europe.
                                "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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