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  • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
    You are free to believe what you will but it might not be quite as simplistic as what you clearly imagine.
    What a stupid reply. The EU 27 either vote Yes to an extension to Article 50 or one or more vote No to an extension.

    It is very simple.

    And none of the EU27 has the bottle to say No.



    Comment


    • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
      You are free to believe what you will but it might not be quite as simplistic as what you clearly imagine.

      Regardless of that - you didn't answer the question however so... What do you think or imagine that the proroguing achieves within the scope of Brexit and Brexit negotiations?
      The Pro Rogue achieves a number of things -

      It protects the Party conferences. There had been a threat that Remainers would seek to stop them this year. While Conferences are important to all Parties they are particularly important to Boris given that this is his first as leader.

      it protects and sets up a Queen’s speech. Boris like any new leader wants to set out what we intends to do. That he is not just a continuation of May. For that he needs a QS.

      In reality, certainly for the first reason the Labour and even the Liberal leadership are not going to be that dismayed by the Pro rogue. All party leaders want to be cheered by the Party faithful. The MPs who are going to be must unhappy are those who have defected or are in open rebellion against their own parties such as Boles and Grieve and whatever the Tuggers are calling themselves these days.

      For Brexit the slight reduction in days available could bring forward the confrontation and opens the possibility of an election before Brexit day. If Boris calls it next week then the election would be mid October.
      "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
        And none of the EU27 has the bottle to say No.
        I wouldn't be quite so sure about that. Many would certainly give more time if the UK can't decide but there are starting be much more of people in the EU who just want it over - at least in part since it is quite clear that there are no acceptable solutions in sight. Even the current extension had to be cut due to opposition in the EU for granting any longer extensions. At least that was the gist i caught from Tusks 'please do not waste this time' message - i.e. don't assume further extensions would be possible.



        Originally posted by Surrey View Post
        For Brexit the slight reduction in days available could bring forward the confrontation and opens the possibility of an election before Brexit day. If Boris calls it next week then the election would be mid October.
        Hmmm... Well... The potential for new elections might actually change what i wrote above should the UK request further extension because of them (should they occur that is). The EU has been quite clear that they are not keen on granting more time just because but actually want some valid reason to do so - elections or referendum could be that reason. Then again if the current goal is to leave as soon as possible it would at least seem to me like it would actually be better not to prorogue (as it may make MPs vote against the government regardless of their opinion of the Brexit and/or governments Brexit stance - something something about Sun Tzu and not pushing your opponent against the wall). Which was kind of the reason why i asked that question since while i do appreciate the domestic UK political issues the proroguing affects i'm kind of struggling to figure out how it would help with the Brexit one way or the other.
        It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Vaeltaja View Post
          I wouldn't be quite so sure about that. Many would certainly give more time if the UK can't decide but there are starting be much more of people in the EU who just want it over - at least in part since it is quite clear that there are no acceptable solutions in sight. Even the current extension had to be cut due to opposition in the EU for granting any longer extensions. At least that was the gist i caught from Tusks 'please do not waste this time' message - i.e. don't assume further extensions would be possible.




          Hmmm... Well... The potential for new elections might actually change what i wrote above should the UK request further extension because of them (should they occur that is). The EU has been quite clear that they are not keen on granting more time just because but actually want some valid reason to do so - elections or referendum could be that reason. Then again if the current goal is to leave as soon as possible it would at least seem to me like it would actually be better not to prorogue (as it may make MPs vote against the government regardless of their opinion of the Brexit and/or governments Brexit stance - something something about Sun Tzu and not pushing your opponent against the wall). Which was kind of the reason why i asked that question since while i do appreciate the domestic UK political issues the proroguing affects i'm kind of struggling to figure out how it would help with the Brexit one way or the other.
          On the contrary to your last paragraph Boris can gain by provoking the Remainers and having the confrontation sooner rather than latter.

          If the rebel Tory MPs vote against him they can have their whips removed. Boris needs to eliminate the rebels and this is the easiest and quickest way. If an MP has their whip removed they cannot stand as a Conservative candidate in an election. While Remainers drone on about MPs being representatives rather than delegates in reality they are elected virtually entirely on the basis of their party membership.
          For example Hammond is currrently the MP for Runnymede and Weybridge, a rock solid Conservative seat. He is also a rebel who has threatened to vote against the government. Were he to actually do it and have his whip removed then his chances of remaining an MP at the next election would be zero. He would be replaced with a Boris supporting candidate.
          May could never remove MPs whips because she was so unpopular and was certain to lose an election. However Boris is riding high in the polls and thus the threat to remove the whip is real.

          Overall an early election favours Boris but it would be better for him if he can be seen as bring forced into it. So he needs to provoke the rebels.
          "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

          Comment


          • Looks like a necessary step in a breakdown of the current Westminster system.

            Comment


            • Hmm....
              https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eset-by-issues
              Irish border after Brexit – all ideas are beset by issues says secret paper
              Exclusive: leaked report says at present there is no deliverable alternative to the backstop
              It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

              Comment


              • The UK wants the EU to remove the Backstop from the Withdrawal agreement.
                What alternative are they suggesting?
                "The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
                validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
                "Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                  Overall an early election favours Boris but it would be better for him if he can be seen as bring forced into it. So he needs to provoke the rebels.
                  Funny isn't it how for the previous two years Labour were almost permanently calling and preparing for an election, then threatening a No Confidence vote and are now saying they'll deliberately prevent an election!

                  Comment


                  • Strange thing is, May apparently had a majority, then she called an election and lost it - why didn't didn't just get her own withdrawal agreement voted when she had the chance ?

                    Cameron had a majority but called an unneeded referendum....and lost.

                    Now Johnson (who's apparently relying the Speaker of the House for his majority) is trying to provoke an election he's sure he will win, not hard to see a pattern here.

                    It's a small wonder how these amateurs still get any votes at all

                    Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                    If Boris calls it next week then the election would be mid October.
                    Can he ? I've heard it said he can't call an election himself, and that's why he's trying to provoke the opposition into a a vote of no confidence ?

                    Which is also be the reason why the op. would want to avoid such… I suspect, to answer Gooners post above…..
                    Last edited by Snowygerry; 02 Sep 19, 07:12.
                    Lambert of Montaigu - Crusader.

                    Bolgios - Mercenary Game.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post
                      Can he ? I've heard it said he can't call an election himself, and that's why he's trying to provoke the opposition into a a vote of no confidence ?
                      Need Parliament to vote 2-1 for a new election outside the fixed term. But:

                      "Clarifying his hitherto deliberately ambiguous statements on whether Labour will support a general election, when asked whether he will support one under ANY circumstances, Corbyn said

                      Of course, we are the opposition party, we want a general election”

                      Boris has called a surprise Cabinet meeting for 5.00pm today ...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                        Boris has called a surprise Cabinet meeting for 5.00pm today ...
                        I have visions of ministers jumping out of the closet now, Monty Python style, wtf is a "surprise cabinet meeting"

                        As long he doesn't call it the ministery of funny walks, it'll be Ok I suppose…..
                        Lambert of Montaigu - Crusader.

                        Bolgios - Mercenary Game.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Snowygerry View Post

                          I have visions of ministers jumping out of the closet now, Monty Python style, wtf is a "surprise cabinet meeting"

                          As long he doesn't call it the ministery of funny walks, it'll be Ok I suppose…..
                          Le Cabinet futile?
                          Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                          Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Gooner View Post

                            Need Parliament to vote 2-1 for a new election outside the fixed term. But:

                            "Clarifying his hitherto deliberately ambiguous statements on whether Labour will support a general election, when asked whether he will support one under ANY circumstances, Corbyn said

                            Of course, we are the opposition party, we want a general election”

                            Boris has called a surprise Cabinet meeting for 5.00pm today ...
                            Boris's threat to eliminate the rebels reminds my of Operation Catapult. By removing the rebels from the Party and replacing them with loyal Boris candidates he both removes the direct threat of Hammond et al and sends a message to the wider world and electorate that he is serious about Brexit.


                            "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                            Comment


                            • Another article written by a person who should actually be somewhat familiar with the realities of the situation: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...o-deal-brexit/ (by Ivan Rogers)

                              Few points...
                              If, as many suspect, the real plan proves to be that we have an election campaign devoted to blaming an intransigent EU for a ‘no deal’ outcome, then please let us not harbour illusions that afterwards, were this government to be returned, normality could rapidly return. And that both sides would just amicably sit down and hammer out the Canada-EU style Free Trade Deal to which the Prime Minister aspires. Or that a plethora of legal sectoral mini deals would quietly be struck to lead, seamlessly, to the same result.

                              Not a chance in hell.
                              On ‘mini deals’, the reality is, as UK officials have already long experienced, that the legislation the 27 put in place to govern economic relations with the UK after a disorderly exit has not even been up for consultation with us, let alone negotiated.

                              These are not ‘deals’. ‘Deals’ by definition require negotiation and compromises. These are faits accomplis, set solely in the interests of the 27 by the 27, in both their content and longevity. This is not the UK in any sense ‘taking back control’ but forfeiting it entirely. Campaign slogans are fine. But they are not a policy.
                              It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed. The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                                Boris's threat to eliminate the rebels reminds my of Operation Catapult.
                                The attack on the Vichy fleet ?

                                Well I watched the surprise cabinet meeting, or fragments of it at least, the arrival of the ministers, the new dog at Downing Street, and Johnsons speech.....

                                Didn't quite know what to make of it, to be honest…..

                                Full text here :

                                https://www.theguardian.com/politics...0812d9e0267a5c

                                And so I am proud to say that on Wednesday Chancellor Sajid Javid is going to set out the most ambitious spending round for more than a decade.

                                I said I wanted to make your streets safer – and that is why we are recruiting another 20,000 police officers.

                                I said I wanted to improve your hospital and reduce the waiting times at your GP.

                                And so we are doing 20 new hospital upgrades in addition to the extra £34bn going into the NHS.
                                Reeks of elections doesn't it ?

                                and yet …......

                                And without an election, which I don’t want and you don’t want.
                                Last edited by Snowygerry; 03 Sep 19, 02:19.
                                Lambert of Montaigu - Crusader.

                                Bolgios - Mercenary Game.

                                Comment

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