Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Brexit/Scottish Independence

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Brexit/Scottish Independence

    Here's a question for our British members. It seems from afar that the Scots are more for remaining in the EU while the English are leaning towards leaving (and the Welsh and Northern Irish don't count ). If the push for Brexit had happened around the time of the Scottish independence vote, would that have changed enough Scottish voters minds that independence would have succeeded?

  • #2
    Originally posted by johns624 View Post
    Here's a question for our British members. It seems from afar that the Scots are more for remaining in the EU while the English are leaning towards leaving (and the Welsh and Northern Irish don't count ). If the push for Brexit had happened around the time of the Scottish independence vote, would that have changed enough Scottish voters minds that independence would have succeeded?
    The Scots don't strike me as passionately for the EU, they're just not as obsessively against it (rightly or wrongly) as some in England.

    If Brexit does happen and if the UK's economy is scuppered because of it, then maybe the Scottish electorate would look to leaving a sinking ship. But anything short of that, then I doubt it.

    Even the SNP, for all its tough talk, is markedly averse to a Scottish Referendum sequel, considering the number of times Nicola Sturgeon has said she wasn't interested in one.
    Last edited by Éire_Ascendant; 23 Apr 16, 12:58. Reason: Typo

    Comment


    • #3
      One of the main planks of the movement against independence was the warning that an independent Scotland would be expelled from the EU (quite how they worked that one out is hard to fathom, but the uncertainty around the issue made it plausible).

      It's interesting that the same people who told us we wouldn't be allowed to stay in the EU are now campaigning to take us out of it.

      As for support for the EU in Scotland, it's hovering between 2:1 and 3:1 in favour of remaining.

      @Eire Ascendant. There WILL be another independence referendum, but not until, "Yes," can be sure of winning. All that Nicola Sturgeon has said on the matter is, "Not yet."

      To suggest that Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish National Party do not want Scottish independence is real head-in-the-sand stuff.
      Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by the ace View Post
        One of the main planks of the movement against independence was the warning that an independent Scotland would be expelled from the EU (quite how they worked that one out is hard to fathom, but the uncertainty around the issue made it plausible).
        Not expelled per se, but it would not automatically be in the EU (being a new nation-state, after all) and any attempts to join would not be automatic, i.e. blocked by those EU countries not wanting their own separatist movements to be getting ideas.

        Spain and Belgium 'would veto an independent Scotland's EU membership'

        Both Spain and Belgium would block an independent Scotland's application to join the European Union, a former president of the EU's finance council has predicted.
        Far from being automatic, joining the EU could very well have been a hard fight for Scotland.


        It's interesting that the same people who told us we wouldn't be allowed to stay in the EU are now campaigning to take us out of it.
        The NO vote were for Scotland remaining within the UK, with no mention of the EU, so no contradiction there.



        @Eire Ascendant. There WILL be another independence referendum, but not until, "Yes," can be sure of winning. All that Nicola Sturgeon has said on the matter is, "Not yet."
        'Not yet' is a vague and meaningless statement, up there with 'five more minutes.'

        And Sturgeon, canny politician that she is, can hardly say 'actually, we're not all that bothered by the situation as it is' to the party footsoldiers. She needs to give them a little ideological red meat.

        To suggest that Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish National Party do not want Scottish independence is real head-in-the-sand stuff.
        Except the first thing Alex Salmond wanted as soon as Cameron announced the referendum was another, non-independence option:


        Salmond offers Scots third option in independence debate


        Alex Salmond is preparing to offer the Scottish electorate another, less drastic, option in the upcoming referendum on Scottish independence.

        Voters will be able to choose either full independence from the United Kingdom, or full "financial autonomy" –where Scotland would be able to raise all its own taxes and run its own welfare system but remain part of the UK.
        Which falls far short of the lofty aspirations an independence movement is supposed to aspire to.

        Could it be that Salmond didn't want to risk his credibility over a lost independence vote, which polls said the public were largely against, and instead tried a third option, which the polls were much more amenable towards and over which he could claim a win?

        Comment


        • #5
          Yes, the, "Devo Max," option. Salmond put it forward, along with extending the franchise to 16/17 year-olds.

          It was London that went for the straight Yes/No option (Salmond wanted independence, but the compromise third option could've been a winner, it certainly swung the final result when it was offered at the 11th hour "Vote, 'No,' for faster and safer change." it was horsesh*t, but many bought it).

          At the upcoming Scottish elections (5th May), anyone over 16 in Scotland will have a vote - if you have adult responsibilities, you can have adult rights. Sturgeon is looking to re-open the independence question if she's re-elected.
          Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

          Comment


          • #6
            What you Scot's should do is vote to come out and if the vote goes that way it will trigger another 'Scotindiref' where you can prove you were right about the "it was horsesh*t,"

            Paul
            ‘Tis said his form is tiny, yet
            All human ills he can subdue,
            Or with a bauble or medal
            Can win mans heart for you;
            And many a blessing know to stew
            To make a megloamaniac bright;
            Give honour to the dainty Corse,
            The Pixie is a little shite.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Dibble201Bty View Post
              What you Scot's should do is vote to come out and if the vote goes that way it will trigger another 'Scotindiref' where you can prove you were right about the "it was horsesh*t,"

              Paul
              We want to stay in, but if there's an out vote, it will be down to the much larger English electorate, the trigger for a second indyref is Scotland being removed from the EU if we vote to stay.

              The, "Faster and safer change," is the poisoned chalice of Income tax (virtually impossible to use) and welfare (expensive) - anything else we wanted was removed before the Smith Commission's findings were even presented to Westminster, and subsequent attempts to amend the package by Scotland's MPs were crushed by their being outnumbered 10:1.

              Horsesh*t is a flattering description.
              Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

              Comment


              • #8
                I'm amused by the irony that some (perhaps many) of those in England who opposed Scottish independence are the same folk who want out of Europe. They may see Scotland keep them in the EU only to see Scotland leave....and not be admitted into the EU.

                The world is indeed a strange place.
                Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by the ace View Post
                  Yes, the, "Devo Max," option. Salmond put it forward, along with extending the franchise to 16/17 year-olds.

                  It was London that went for the straight Yes/No option (Salmond wanted independence, but the compromise third option could've been a winner, it certainly swung the final result when it was offered at the 11th hour "Vote, 'No,' for faster and safer change." it was horsesh*t, but many bought it).

                  At the upcoming Scottish elections (5th May), anyone over 16 in Scotland will have a vote - if you have adult responsibilities, you can have adult rights. Sturgeon is looking to re-open the independence question if she's re-elected.
                  Some one of 16 is an adult ? They only think on one think .

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ljadw View Post
                    Some one of 16 is an adult ? They only think on one think .
                    Psychologists tell us that the brain is not fully developed until the mid-twenties.
                    "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
                    Samuel Johnson.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post
                      Psychologists tell us that the brain is not fully developed until the mid-twenties.
                      And life proves us that some brains had never developed and never will.
                      This place demonstrates it daily.
                      That rug really tied the room together

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        He added that Belgium is "extremely worried ... a Scottish precedent would really encourage the now very rich region of Flanders to secede from the Kingdom", adding: "This would impoverish Belgium."
                        While I will not deny the sentiment exists - to conclude from that Belgium would *veto* a Scottish membership application is quite a few steps too far, especially in the current political constellation.

                        The main Flemish separatist party is also the largest party in the federal government - and any veto would have to be agreed to by them.

                        Conversely the main unionist party, the francophone PS is not currently represented in the federal government after being booted by the liberal MR.

                        The most likely outcome would be that Belgium abstains on account of not being able to reach agreement either way.
                        Lambert of Montaigu - Crusader.

                        Bolgios - Mercenary Game.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ljadw View Post
                          Some one of 16 is an adult ? They only think on one think .
                          As do many adults. Legally, you're an adult at 16 in Scotland.
                          Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            If the push for Brexit had happened around the time of the Scottish independence vote, would that have changed enough Scottish voters minds that independence would have succeeded?
                            Unlikely. The Conservatives were promising an EU referendum before the end of 2017 months before the Scottish independence referendum was held, so it's not as if the idea has come as a surprise.

                            Scottish independence would have meant removal from the EU anyway, the European Commission were absolutely clear about that.

                            Scottish "exports" by destination:

                            Rest of UK - £50 billion
                            Rest of World - £15 billion
                            EU - £13 billion

                            The reality is Scotland needs the UK market far, far more than it needs the EU.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Hop View Post
                              The reality is Scotland needs the UK market far, far more than it needs the EU.
                              Making Scotland to the UK, what the UK is to the EU...

                              Comment

                              Latest Topics

                              Collapse

                              Working...
                              X