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Rand report; Russia defeats NATO in Baltic

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  • Rand report; Russia defeats NATO in Baltic

    STUTTGART, Germany -- A Russian offensive on NATO territory in the Baltics would overwhelm underarmed alliance forces in a matter of hours, leaving NATO with a harsh dilemma: Launch a long, bloody counteroffensive or concede defeat.
    That is the conclusion of a new report by Rand Corp., which conducted a series of elaborate war games from summer 2014 to spring 2015 with the assistance of numerous American military commands and experts.
    "As presently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members," the Rand Corp. study says.
    The findings are likely to come as no surprise to the military's top officers in Europe, who have been warning that sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft systems could deny allies quick military access to the Baltics. Russia has superior numbers of air and ground forces across the border from the vulnerable Baltic states, which were once part of the Soviet Union. However, Russia has repeatedly stressed that it has no territorial designs on the Baltics.
    Policymakers must determine whether the risks of potential Russian aggression are strong enough to demand the kind of reinforcements that could thwart a Russian assault. The costs of placing such a force in the region would be substantial but manageable for a NATO alliance with a collective gross domestic product of more than $35 trillion, Rand says.
    http://www.military.com/daily-news/2...orce_160209.nl
    Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

  • #2
    Of course not. Nobody expects those countries to be able to hold out for the weeks it would take to get real reinforcements there but that's not the point. The forces in the Baltic states are a tripwire, exactly like the NATO force that used to be stationed in West Berlin. They exist to force both sides' hands by putting American and other NATO forces into direct combat with the Russians as soon as the fighting starts.

    If Russia rolls over a few Germans/Lithuanians occupying West Berlin/the Baltics and stops its possible that they may be able to force the West to accept the loss politically in exactly the same way they did with the Crimea, through fait accompli. However if they have to fight their way through American/British/French/etc troops to do it its too late. The war is on and no government in the West is going to be able to justify giving Russia what it wants. Attacking an ally is one thing in the minds of voters, attacking their sons is another.

    The whole thing is a form of brinksmanship deterance. Make it very clear that there is no path to a quick fait accompli victory and that a serious shooting war is the only outcome and suddenly the cost of an attack goes up dramatically.
    "Artillery lends dignity to what might otherwise be a vulgar brawl." - Frederick the Great

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    • #3
      Another pointless thread.


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      • #4
        Originally posted by hawker_gb View Post
        Another pointless thread.


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        Why's that?
        "Artillery lends dignity to what might otherwise be a vulgar brawl." - Frederick the Great

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        • #5
          Because Russia and US won't fight mainly because outcome of that clash would be nuclear fallout.
          Both countries can destroy each other in matter of minutes.

          Only purpose of this article is to pump anti Russian hysteria.
          Like articles "Putin kill my baby" not so long ago.

          BTW,did author's get paid for this elaborate because they look like a captain obvious.


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          • #6
            Originally posted by hawker_gb View Post
            Because Russia and US won't fight mainly because outcome of that clash would be nuclear fallout.
            Both countries can destroy each other in matter of minutes.
            I agree. That's what I was talking about and why NATO forces are in the Baltic states in the first place. It makes a quick occupation by Russia, like what happened in the Crimea, impossible and makes the only option WWIII which is obviously so crazy and suicidal for everyone involved that it guarantees the continued independence of the Baltic states.
            "Artillery lends dignity to what might otherwise be a vulgar brawl." - Frederick the Great

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            • #7
              Originally posted by hawker_gb View Post
              Because Russia and US won't fight mainly because outcome of that clash would be nuclear fallout.
              Both countries can destroy each other in matter of minutes.

              Only purpose of this article is to pump anti Russian hysteria.
              Like articles "Putin kill my baby" not so long ago.

              BTW,did author's get paid for this elaborate because they look like a captain obvious.


              Sent from my SGP521 using Tapatalk
              The topic is NATO, not the US
              Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

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              • #8
                It would be a bit jarring if Russia didn't defeat NATO in the Baltic. If that were the case then it could be said the world's second strongest army was on the verge of sliding into impotence.
                Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Urban hermit View Post
                  The topic is NATO, not the US
                  Well, the topic might also be about the one running the show and calling the tunes.
                  www.histours.ru

                  Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by hawker_gb View Post
                    Because Russia and US won't fight mainly because outcome of that clash would be nuclear fallout.
                    Both countries can destroy each other in matter of minutes.
                    The question is not whether they will have an all out nuclear war (they won't), it's whether it's viable for the Russians to perform a fait accompli in the Baltic states. If the invasion is over before everyone's had their morning coffee, it is debatable as to whether the response would be full mobilization to counterattack, or whether NATO would just reinforce the Polish border and then try to wage economic warfare on Russia instead of actual warfare for fear of further escalation.

                    A scenario in which Russia takes the time to mobilise for a large war is one in which NATO can counter-mobilise in the defence of the Baltics - thus such a scenario is not worth considering as plausible. However, there are other scenarios available since the Baltic states are tiny, are adjacent to Russian, and have large ethnic Russian minorities. If "local militia forces" with top range gear and training suddenly start seizing key infrastructure and declaring for the independence of the Narva Republic, what would the NATO response to that be exactly? It's been less than 3 years since this happened in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the latter conflict still ongoing. It is absolutely a good idea to think through possible scenarios because this isn't all fantasy land stuff.

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                    • #11
                      You only forgot to tell what the whole point of all this invasion would be? Just because Putin is so evil, eh?
                      www.histours.ru

                      Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                        You only forgot to tell what the whole point of all this invasion would be? Just because Putin is so evil, eh?
                        Land bridge to Kaliningrad, reclamation of former soviet territories, etc. Failing to defend NATO member states would also be a probable cause for the disintegration of the alliance (at minimum, dissuasion for states on the periphery of the alliance when this action showed that the other member states would not come to their aide). The low end option of merely fomenting rebellion amongst ethnic Russians, then possibly annexing strips along the border if it is successful would also be significantly disruptive and highly embarrassing to NATO for similar reasons (although less so), and it would mean both more Russians in Russia and more clay between the Russian heart lands and NATO's borders.

                        If Putin believed with some degree of certainty that a war would not break out by his annexation of the Baltic states, or by taking covert action against them, then that would certainly be an attractive prospect. The question of what he is thinking is unknown, but it is a possibility that should be prepared for in a manner that will not itself cause escalation.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                          You only forgot to tell what the whole point of all this invasion would be? Just because Putin is so evil, eh?
                          No, its just a way of getting dissent sidelined. Just like when clinton started bombing Yugoslavia. 'Nevermind me screwing with a intern, Look, a shooting war.' Same sort of thing. That people fall for that tired old line always amazes me.

                          I know you can't publicly dis putin, (Cost you your job.) but really do you think that anyone is fooled? Okay maybe some kids that have no clue as to how the world works...

                          I suggest a nicer approach. Be generous, stop threatening those itty bitty neighbors and you might make some friends. I wish we could do the same.

                          Just think of what we could do with all that money spent on arms if we spent it on space exploitation...
                          Credo quia absurdum.


                          Quantum mechanics describes nature as absurd from the point of view of common sense. And yet it fully agrees with experiment. So I hope you can accept nature as She is - absurd! - Richard Feynman

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                            You only forgot to tell what the whole point of all this invasion would be? Just because Putin is so evil, eh?
                            all tyrants need a foil.
                            Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

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                            • #15
                              Why would Putin annex anything?

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