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UKIP vote to lead to Labour victory?

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  • UKIP vote to lead to Labour victory?

    As often happens a lurch towards one direction leads to actual victory for the other side.

    With the United Kingdom Independence Party vote getting very much stronger the most likely impact is that in close seats the conservative vote may split allowing Labour to win a clear majority. As UKIP really is a more "conventional" or dare I say old fashioned version of the Conservative Party there is a strong reason for traditonal Tory voters to move their votes.

    Will UKIP put Ed Milliband and Ed Balls in charge of the UK?
    What would Occam say?

  • #2
    In a General Election the impact UKIP would be marginal but really depends on how Cameron handles the EU question and if it looks like the Conservatives are heading for a major defeat many Tory voters just might switch to UKIP as a protest vote especially in constituencies where they don't have a chance in hell of taking anyway.
    That's not to say UKIP won't do well in the upcoming European elections and most likely will increase their share of the vote. Maybe even take a few council seats as UKIP continue to put up more candidates for local elections as well.

    The real question is how badly the Liberal Democrats will get hammered as more and more voters abandon them which is more likely to get Labour into government. The only thing that can save the Tories is just how much can the two Ed's and the rest of Labours front bench put people off voting Labour.


    Of course not forgetting Scotland might be out of it when it votes for independence
    Last edited by Tealo; 18 Dec 12, 04:19.
    • 'If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril.' Sun Tzu

    Definition of government, "an institution which prevents injustice other than such as it commits itself" by Ibn Khaldun

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    • #3
      The Tories need to grow a set of balls and give us a choice on EU membership.

      (and the ECHR)

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      • #4
        In the Euros the UKIP will vote rise no question. In a general election I still would imagine the UKIP vote will largely stay with the Tories out of the sheer abhorence of letting in Bert and Ernie. If not the core Troy vote will have truly lost sight of the bigger picture....

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        • #5
          The Tories lost a large chunk of their core vote in 1997 and never regained it.

          It is up to the party to adapt to the wishes of the voters, not the other way round, IMO.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Gooner View Post
            The Tories lost a large chunk of their core vote in 1997 and never regained it.

            It is up to the party to adapt to the wishes of the voters, not the other way round, IMO.
            Up to a point. A lot of what the mainstream thinks or is told to think can be utter

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            • #7
              "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Tealo View Post
                In a General Election the impact UKIP would be marginal but really depends on how Cameron handles the EU question and if it looks like the Conservatives are heading for a major defeat many Tory voters just might switch to UKIP as a protest vote especially in constituencies where they don't have a chance in hell of taking anyway.
                That's not to say UKIP won't do well in the upcoming European elections and most likely will increase their share of the vote. Maybe even take a few council seats as UKIP continue to put up more candidates for local elections as well.

                The real question is how badly the Liberal Democrats will get hammered as more and more voters abandon them which is more likely to get Labour into government. The only thing that can save the Tories is just how much can the two Ed's and the rest of Labours front bench put people off voting Labour.


                Of course not forgetting Scotland might be out of it when it votes for independence
                I hope not, mainly for the fun of watching Balls and Millibrand weep like bitches when they realise yet again that no one loves them.

                By the way, if you had a name like Balls wouldn't you have changed it before you went into politics?
                "Sometimes its better to light a flamethrower than to curse the darkness" T Pratchett

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                • #9
                  There is a certain logic behind the notion - with the Conservatives having been in power and allegedly alienated the right of the party, UKIP will pick up on lost conservatives. Meanwhile, disheartened Lib Dems feeling 'betrayed' by Clegg, and thinking only in terms of left and right, will go with the other 'left' party, Labour, bolstering the Fabianist vote. Not to say that's to happen or necessarily likely, but I can sort of see the mechanics of it.
                  ------
                  'I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than those attending too small a degree of it.' - Thomas Jefferson

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                  • #10
                    The Lib Dems must be the deadest dead thing since Piltodwn Man so their vote in England will almost certainly go to Labour as they are increasingly anti-Tory.

                    A lot of the traditional Tory vote will certainly consider UKIP and in some marginals that will help put Labour in although UKIP may not win any seats at all.

                    On balance it looks lke a Labour win right now.One thing thoug is that protest votes have a habit of collapsing so if Cameron makes a Euro-referendum an election committment it might be enough to kill the UKIP vote.

                    Of course although UKIP is a single issue party its overall policies make it a happy home for English Tea Party types so they may actually last long enough to put Ed and Ed into number 10, for which Cameron would take the blame very possibly puting Boris into the leadership of the Tory party.

                    Scotlnd may well lose a lot of MPs in the near future so that should set things up for Boris PM some time around 2018 or so, assuming Ed and Ed blow things up forcing a new election within a few years.
                    What would Occam say?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by billscottmorri View Post
                      On balance it looks lke a Labour win right now.One thing thoug is that protest votes have a habit of collapsing so if Cameron makes a Euro-referendum an election committment it might be enough to kill the UKIP vote.
                      I don't think it will. Remember e've been down this street before, and the Tories wormed their way out of it on semantics, and thats how allot of people see it. So Offering a refrendum again will only highlight the memory to peoples minds.

                      I do agree with the earlier assement that its A abour win with the Lib dems holed and sinking. I can't see anything that will save the Tories. The only party that appears to be a legitimate Right party at the moment is UKIP. Look at the scale:
                      Tories: Blue (well not even Blue any more) Lib Dems
                      UKIP: Single issue party, somewhat muppet controlled.
                      Then you're into the BNP, EDL and assorted idiots.

                      Bit of a gulf for right wingers in the country.

                      Of course there is something to be said for letting Labour win, having them cock it up so imensley that the Tories get back in for another 25 years.
                      Winnie says
                      ---------------------------------
                      "He fell out of a Gestapo car, over a bridge, and onto a railway line. Then was run over by the Berlin Express.

                      It was an Accident."
                      Herr Flick.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Listy View Post
                        I don't think it will. Remember e've been down this street before, and the Tories wormed their way out of it on semantics, and thats how allot of people see it. So Offering a refrendum again will only highlight the memory to peoples minds.

                        I do agree with the earlier assement that its A abour win with the Lib dems holed and sinking. I can't see anything that will save the Tories. The only party that appears to be a legitimate Right party at the moment is UKIP. Look at the scale:
                        Tories: Blue (well not even Blue any more) Lib Dems
                        UKIP: Single issue party, somewhat muppet controlled.
                        Then you're into the BNP, EDL and assorted idiots.

                        Bit of a gulf for right wingers in the country.

                        Of course there is something to be said for letting Labour win, having them cock it up so imensley that the Tories get back in for another 25 years.
                        The Tories (the least worst option) have to win at least one more time before Labour gets its go. Its absolutely essential and I'm no fan of Cameron at all....

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by copenhagen View Post
                          The Tories (the least worst option) have to win at least one more time before Labour gets its go. Its absolutely essential and I'm no fan of Cameron at all....
                          Why? Labour policies are to borrow and spend, fill their own pockets, and flood the country with immigrants. And they're soaring in the opinion polls.
                          The British public will deserve what they get.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                            Why? Labour policies are to borrow and spend, fill their own pockets, and flood the country with immigrants. And they're soaring in the opinion polls.
                            The British public will deserve what they get.
                            Why? Well I thought that was obvious...
                            Kinnock used to soar in the opinion polls. That doesn't mean jack mid term...

                            I'm part of the British public and I don't deserve more of their . Never voted for Blair or Brown. Was never my fault...

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                            • #15
                              Yeah, you're right, I must just be feeling particularly bitter this morning.

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