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North Korea pre-emptive strike ? Seems everyone wants to do the pre-emptive thing

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  • North Korea pre-emptive strike ? Seems everyone wants to do the pre-emptive thing

    Pre-emptive strike ? Now the North Koreans are at it !


    North Korea has warned the United States that any decision to send more troops to the region could lead the North to make a pre-emptive attack on American forces.

    US officials said on Tuesday that Washington was considering strengthening its military forces in the Pacific Ocean as a deterrent against North Korea.

    Tensions are increasing over North Korea's nuclear activity
    They said the reinforcements would help signal that a possible war with Iraq was not distracting the US from a nuclear stand-off with the North.

    North Korea also warned that any US strike against its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon would trigger "full scale war".

    The North said on Wednesday that it had reactivated the nuclear site and its operations were now going ahead "on a normal footing".

    Pyongyang says it will use the facilities to produce electricity "at the present stage".

    However, the US and nuclear experts say the Yongbyon reactor, which has been mothballed since 1994, is too small to generate meaningful amounts of electricity.

    They fear that North Korea's real purpose is to resume production of weapons-grade plutonium.

    Growing alarm

    The threat to strike first against US troops in the region came from North Korea's foreign ministry deputy director, Ri Pyong-gap.

    Timeline of tensions

    Speaking to the BBC's Mike Thompson in Pyongyang, Mr Ri said his government was becoming increasingly alarmed at signs that Washington planned to send more aircraft carriers, bombers and troops to the region.

    He said such actions would mean that the US was either planning to invade the North or launch attacks against it.

    In response, he insisted, Pyongyang would not just sit and wait and could decide to strike first if necessary.

    The country currently has a standing army of more than one million soldiers, whilst America has around 37,000 thousand troops based in South Korea.

    Our correspondent says tensions on the streets of Pyongyang are tangible. Air raid drills and blackouts are becoming twice-daily rituals and huge posters calling for courage in the fight ahead cover billboards and walls.

    North Korean denial

    The North Koreans are believed to possess one or two nuclear weapons already, as well as enough spent fuel rods to make four or six more.

    However, analysts say that reactivating Yongbyon reactor gives North Korea the capacity to mass produce plutonium for nuclear weapons, raising fears of a nuclear arms race in Asia.

    Tension has been building in the region ever since claims by Washington that the communist regime in Pyongyang had admitted to resuming the development of nuclear weapons in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

    North Korea denies the allegations, which it says are being used to justify an imminent American invasion.

    Analysts say the North may be trying to force the US to negotiate a non-aggression pact, or strengthen its nuclear arsenal while the US is preoccupied with Iraq.

    The United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose inspectors were expelled from the plant in December, is due to hold an emergency meeting next week on the nuclear crisis.

    The meeting is expected to refer the dispute to the UN Security Council.


    CRISIS CHRONOLOGY

    16 Oct: US announces that N Korea has acknowledged secret nuclear programme

    14 Nov: Oil shipments to N Korea halted

    22 Dec: N Korea removes monitoring devices at Yongbyon nuclear plant

    31 Dec: UN nuclear inspectors forced to leave North Korea

    10 Jan: N Korea pulls out of anti-nuclear treaty

    4 Feb: US says it might reinforce troops in Pacific

    5 Feb: N Korea says nuclear facilities reactivated


    Reference

    www.bbc.co.uk

  • #2
    Oh yes and why is Rumsfeld talking about the North Koreans giving Nukes to terrorists ? Has he lost the plot ? If that is not extreme paranoia I don't know what is.

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    • #3
      If North Korea launched a strike either against US forces or interests the that would be the biggest and last mistake they made.There would be pain involved but i seriously doubt anyone cannot figure out the outcome of such a conflict.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by John Paul
        If North Korea launched a strike either against US forces or interests the that would be the biggest and last mistake they made.There would be pain involved but i seriously doubt anyone cannot figure out the outcome of such a conflict.
        Communist they may be, poor they may be. And lets not forget they did not loose the last war. But they do have one kick ass armed forces. And possibly nuclear weapons. Lets have a little look at those figures:

        Army 950,000; 3,500 MBT; 560 Lt Tk; 2,500 APC; Total Arty 11,500; Mrl 2,500; Mor 7,500; SSM 100+; AD Guns 11,000; SAM 10,000+.

        189,000 Border troops

        3,500,000 Workers/Peasant Guard

        Air Force sniperbrigades, chemical weapons, nukes (?), suicide submarines, heli-assault troops, and perhaps most importantly the home stadium.

        I definately think North Korea is best dealt with diplomatically.

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        • #5
          You can have 50,000 tanks, and 1,000,000,000 men, and fairy dust. If they don't know how to fight with the tools available, they will loose.

          The North Korean Army is having alot of financial trouble. They are getting little training. Equipment is poorly maintained, and troops might go without pay for long periods of time. The nuclear weapons have a dual purpose for the North Koreans.

          1. They can use the crisis to blackmail the world into providing economic aid;

          2. Should blackmail not work, the nuclear weapons could balance out their forces against any American offensive or defensive situation.

          The North Koreans did loose the Korean War. If it weren't for the Chinese, that conflict would have ended by January 1951. Inchon broke them. (If I'm not mistaken, the USSR, and China warned the North about the importance of Pusan and Inchon before the war. They didn't listen.)

          Numbers tell you little. If you really want to determine the strength of your military opponent, one needs to analyze a number of factors that impact how that force fights. I would caution against dismissing the North Koreans as soft. However, they are by no means one of the most power Armies on Earth.

          The US has repeatedly said we're not prepared to strike NK. Diplomacy, supported by the International Community at large is the best COA for now. Once the war in Iraq is complete, we can then reconsider military options. However, IMHO, this can still be resolved through careful negotiations.

          I don't think the North Koreans want a costly war with the US. They have little support from the International community. Sanctions could seriously compromise their situation. If this did go to war, the North won't have the Chinese to lean on. While China might not like the ideal of US troops so close to their borders, they seem to hate a nuclear-armed North Korea even more.

          Pre-emptive strikes would likely come in the form of air strikes. We are moving certain assets into the region as a show-of-force demonstration. Some could support a fast strike on key facilities. However, we don't know if the North Koreans already possess nuclear weapons. If that's true, most military options will evaporate.

          I want diplomacy not because I think the North Koreans could be us, but because it's still a viable option. North Korea is acting like a kid who wants to get his way. Their screaming, fusing, making threats, and shaking their fist. Behind all that is a nation who just want more economic aid. We must take a strong position on North Korea. They can't be allowed to blackmail the International community. If it comes down to it, I'm willing to support air strikes over appeasement. Granting concessions is doing little more than funding North Korea's military and WMD programs.
          "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

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          • #6
            Communist they may be, poor they may be. And lets not forget they did not loose the last war. But they do have one kick ass armed forces. And possibly nuclear weapons. Lets have a little look at those figures:
            And how are they going to keep a million man army, in the field, in combat, in resupply with it's citizen's starving and on the verge of revolt? Hungry soldiers are more likely to attack their own leaders than the enemy. I dont expect China or Russia will give them anything this time around. Even if they did, how would they get the supplies to the troops?

            Another short war. More people liberated, and on to Iran.

            "100% of the successful terrorist attacks on commercial airlines for the past 20 years, have been committed by Arabs. When there is a 100% chance, it ceases to be a profile. It's then called a 'description of the suspect'"
            --Ann Coulter

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            • #7
              Yes they look pretty on paper but can they fight

              All that humanitarian aid thats been going there the last half dozen years where do you think it went?Surely not to the starving masses but to the armed forces.A modern army cannot last long without food or fuel...so unless someone is going to step in to deliver the quantities needed to keep the North Korean war machine running during conflict they will not last long.

              I don't want to see a war in Korea.if it comes to it though i would be the first person to cheer,not because it is my country involved but because the end result would be the release of millions of starving people from the hell they now suffer.Once again i know it would mean great pain for all the peoples invovled maybe more than some are willing to pay but if the end result was that the people of the North no longer had to dig for roots and eat moss off of rocks and watch their children slowly die in front of them,then it may well be worth the price.

              First lets give diplomacy a chance though,i agree with you here.

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              • #8
                Oh by the way,the North did lose the last war It was mainly a Chinese effort after that which resulted in the stalemate.I bet no one could name one major North Korean command that fought in the latter stages of the war.

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                • #9
                  Darn i'm getting slow...where'd those posts come from above

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                  • #10
                    Also armored warfare is possible in Korea.It was done by both sides during the war despite the difficult terrain.If i had to place bets on an American or North Korean armored force placing a desicive punch well...

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                    • #11
                      The North Koreans did not lose the last war. They never surrendered so they never lost. I am also fully aware of the involvement of the Chinese. Do remember many nations fought in Korea, not just the US. Also, the US has ruled out military action as it would achieve nothing apart from another stalemate - the North Korean Forces are just too big for the US to even contemplate dealing with. Plus the NK's have been digging in for 50 years - no chance.

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                      • #12
                        I'll stick to my guns.They lost,their capitol was overrun and the shattered remnants of their army fled towards China.The North Korean troops fought hard but once the initial advantages of shock and their Soviet tanks wore off they were finished.Lets not forget that for much of the initial and even latter stages of the war the area was considered a sideshow,The administrations involved were more concerned that Russia would use the "distraction" to attack Europe and personnel and equipment were still given a priorty for that theater.I don't think anyone here forgets the contributions made to the effort by our allies.I'm not trying to chauvanistic here but we had most of the troops there and did most of the dying(South Koreans accepted,naturally)so its understandable why Americans consider Korea "their" war.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by John Paul
                          I'll stick to my guns.They lost,their capitol was overrun and the shattered remnants of their army fled towards China.The North Korean troops fought hard but once the initial advantages of shock and their Soviet tanks wore off they were finished.Lets not forget that for much of the initial and even latter stages of the war the area was considered a sideshow,The administrations involved were more concerned that Russia would use the "distraction" to attack Europe and personnel and equipment were still given a priorty for that theater.I don't think anyone here forgets the contributions made to the effort by our allies.I'm not trying to chauvanistic here but we had most of the troops there and did most of the dying(South Koreans accepted,naturally)so its understandable why Americans consider Korea "their" war.
                          Your point is noted and respected.

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                          • #14
                            Marko, what do you call defeat?

                            The North Koreans had little to offer. Stalin saw this and pressed China to enter the war. It was the only way he could save the communist regime in the North.

                            Surrending doesn't mean defeat outright Marko. It's an action taken to preserve your remaining resources. MacAuthur wasn't looking for a surrender. He wanted to wipe communism clean off the Korean Pennisula.

                            I do apologize for not stressing the multilateral UN force that fought in the Korean War.

                            Marko, you are seriously underestimating US capability and resolve. The North Koreans would put up a fight. However, they would loose a war with America. They lack the equipment and training required to defeat our forces. A static defense can be breached. We don't want a war with the north because there are still diplomatic options available, and no one wants to pay such a high price for terrain, many here perceives as not critical to our vital interest. We could take the North if the US wanted to. However, this isn't a macho contest.
                            "As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy."-Christopher Dawson - The Judgement of Nations, 1942

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                            • #15
                              Thank you as is yours Marko

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