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How Should US Deal with China Long-term?

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  • If we look at the "China Problem" what is it that ultimately makes them so dangerous- it is actually quite simple - it is simply the magnitude of their population. Their per capita GDP is certainly respectable. Their are two ways to look at GDP per capita: the more traditional way is nominal GDP, which basically takes the value of the currency, relative to other currencies, into account. The other way to look at GDP is "Purchasing-Power-Parity", which relates to what people can actually buy, based upon prices, inflation, etc. China ranks higher relatively on the Purchasing Power Parity ranking, which I think is the more reasonable one to look at anyway. From the Wikipedia links below, On the GDP (PPP) rankings, the US is at $67,426(#10). China is at $20,984 (#67). Interestingly, Taiwan is at $57,214, Hong Kong is at $66,527 and Macau is at $113,352. India is at $9,027.

    So I see, in simple terms, two ways to potentially exploit this - promote discord between the "haves" and the "have-nots". No doubt the haves will be expected to subsidize the have-nots - in other words Hong Kong and the Mainland areas near it, will resent having to support the poorer regions. Also, the regions near Taiwan will resent the other regions. Everyone should be made to be aware of Taiwan's higher standard of living, higher level of freedoms, etc.

    The ethnic groups/language groups on the periphery of the country should also be exploited - the languages in the Southeast along the river valleys (which the CCP call dialects), Tibet in the SW, and the Muslims in the NW. This is a long play, but importantly the Southeast Coast of course is the area nearest the Spratly Islands, etc. where the Chinese are making their big power grab.

    Regarding populations, per Wikipedia below: China is at 1,403,000,000 India is at 1,362,000,000 and the US at 330,000,000.

    I don't expect the Chinese economy to continue growing the way it has. I expect that they will take the biggest hit from the virus disaster that they caused. But more importantly, in the long run, the game they played with the US in particular, offering cheap labor but then stealing technology, can only be done once. In a somewhat analogous way that the great farmlands of the US, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and in the 1950s Soviet Central Asia, could only be opened up and hugely exploited once.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...PP)_per_capita
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...al)_per_capita
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_GDP_(nominal)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population

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    • Article from Over The Circle: Arctic News and Analysis - "The Long Game? Russia Prepares For Siberian Military Exercises" From September 8, 2018. Link and excerpts below.

      The article relates to this thread, as it discusses a huge Russian exercise focused on Siberia and the Russian Far East, which China and Mongolia also participated in.

      https://overthecircle.com/2018/09/08...ary-exercises/

      excerpt 1


      On 11-15 September, the Russian military will be engaging in military exercises on a scale not seen since the ‘Zapad-81’ (Запад-81) war games conducted by the then-Soviet Army and the Warsaw Pact in 1981. The manoeuvres will take place in Siberia and the Russian Far East (RFE), with China and Mongolia also providing troops and support. The ‘Vostok 2018’ (Восток 2018) exercises will include approximately 300,000 Russian personnel, (roughly a third of the entire Russian military), operating within the Central and Eastern Military Districts of the country as well as the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk regions of the Russian Arctic. Both the Central and Eastern Districts include large swaths of the Russian Arctic, with the Eastern District incorporating much of the RFE and the Russian Pacific Fleet.



      At a time when relations between Moscow and the United States, as well as the rest of NATO, remain strained, the exercises will likely serve to advertise to the international community the renewed capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces (Вооружённые Си́лы Росси́йской Федера́ции). The event will also demonstrate growing military cooperation between Russia and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), as approximately 3200 Chinese forces, reportedly selected from the PLA’s Northern Theatre Command (Beibu Zhanqu 北部战区), are expected to participate in the operation, along with an unspecified number of personnel from the Mongolian Armed Forces (Монгол улсын зэвсэгт хүчин).

      excerpt 2



      The last Vostok military exercises in 2014 not only excluded China, but were viewed by some outside observers as representing a hedge against growing Chinese military power. However, after the Crimea/Donbas crises in Ukraine after 2014 and the subsequent sanctions placed on Russia by the West in response, Sino-Russian relations have improved both in economic and increasingly strategic areas, even though the possibility of a formal bilateral alliance remains negligible. These closer relations have been reflected in both the Russian Arctic and the RFE. China sees Russia, understandably, as holding many of the keys to Beijing’s Arctic interests, including access to resources as well as enhancing Chinese shipping between Asia and Europe. Although it can readily be argued that China and Russia are currently on two different economic trajectories, the government of Xi Jinping has sought [paywall] to improve trade ties with Russia and highlight mutual geo-strategic interests, including mutual concerns about American power.




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      • Link to Wikipedia article on Chinese Cyberwarfare.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_cyberwarfare

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        • It's amazing how quiet this thread is. I guess other countries don't see China as a problem. Mainly, those same countries that didn't find Germany a problem in the 30s.

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          • Well things just got a little more interesting. Not that I’m a fan of Trump’s in your face style, but I agree with him on this. China really is a rogue nation, and needs to be confronted rather than appeased. It’s not going to be good for us as they are our major trading partner, but then again we sold Japan a hell of a lot of pig iron and other resources in the 30s and we all know how well that worked out.
            Matthew 5:9 Blessed are the cheesemakers

            That's right bitches. I'm blessed!

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            • Yeah, Hong Kong is disappearing by the day.

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              • Originally posted by johns624 View Post
                Yeah, Hong Kong is disappearing by the day.
                It was always going to happen. I mean the treaty has only 17 years to run, but China is in some sort of rush to **** off the rest of the world. Not just on this but on everything. They have zero allies. Everyone has felt their boot recently. The time has come for the rest of us to put up or shut up.
                Matthew 5:9 Blessed are the cheesemakers

                That's right bitches. I'm blessed!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Rojik View Post

                  It was always going to happen. I mean the treaty has only 17 years to run, but China is in some sort of rush to **** off the rest of the world. Not just on this but on everything. They have zero allies. Everyone has felt their boot recently. The time has come for the rest of us to put up or shut up.
                  The more they can get away with, the more they WILL get away with. They've ignored the World Court, WHO and the Law of the Sea and everyone turns a blind eye. I'm far from a Trump supporter, but he's the only one who's said anything of all the major powers. Neville Chamberlain is alive and well.

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                  • Originally posted by johns624 View Post

                    The more they can get away with, the more they WILL get away with. They've ignored the World Court, WHO and the Law of the Sea and everyone turns a blind eye. I'm far from a Trump supporter, but he's the only one who's said anything of all the major powers. Neville Chamberlain is alive and well.
                    I hear you. My thoughts on Trump tend to be ‘oh god! what now?’ but maybe on this issue he has a chance to do something that makes a real difference. After all nobody remembers chamberlain’s domestic policies (which weren’t that bad), but will always remember him for dropping the ball on Hitler.
                    I applaud Trump - or whoever wrote his speech - on this.
                    Matthew 5:9 Blessed are the cheesemakers

                    That's right bitches. I'm blessed!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Rojik View Post

                      It was always going to happen. I mean the treaty has only 17 years to run, but China is in some sort of rush to **** off the rest of the world. Not just on this but on everything. They have zero allies. Everyone has felt their boot recently. The time has come for the rest of us to put up or shut up.
                      It was NOT always going to happen. The mistake was recognizing the CCP as the legitimate government of China. Until Nixon, the UK leases of Hong Kong and New Territories were still seen as agreement between the UK and the government that succeeded the Qing. That would be the Republic of China, still alive then. The West gave the key to HK to China, screwing Republic of China once again just like the West fkd ROC after WWI
                      Flag: USA / Location: West Coast

                      Prayers.

                      BoRG

                      http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8757/snap1ws8.jpg

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PtsX_Z3CMU

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                      • Originally posted by Salinator View Post

                        It was NOT always going to happen. The mistake was recognizing the CCP as the legitimate government of China. Until Nixon, the UK leases of Hong Kong and New Territories were still seen as agreement between the UK and the government that succeeded the Qing. That would be the Republic of China, still alive then. The West gave the key to HK to China, screwing Republic of China once again just like the West fkd ROC after WWI
                        So the US ****ed the pretty happy world of the British commonwealth? How unusual.

                        Ok that was snide, but look after 97 Hong Kong was treatied to eventually become a one party one rule province. My point was that I don’t get why they wait. It’s theirs. The pundits always talk about how China plays the long game. How we think in weeks and they think in years, but all I see is an insecure yet arrogant regime that wants everything now. Stalinist USSR that supplies most of the world’s manufacturing.
                        Anyway thought I’d get a pat on the back for my rare praise of Trump than a history lesson I learned a long time ago. Ho hum.
                        Matthew 5:9 Blessed are the cheesemakers

                        That's right bitches. I'm blessed!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Salinator View Post

                          It was NOT always going to happen. The mistake was recognizing the CCP as the legitimate government of China. Until Nixon, the UK leases of Hong Kong and New Territories were still seen as agreement between the UK and the government that succeeded the Qing. That would be the Republic of China, still alive then. The West gave the key to HK to China, screwing Republic of China once again just like the West fkd ROC after WWI
                          A government rulling the largest nation on Earth cannot bre illegitimate.
                          There are no Nazis in Ukraine. © Idiots

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                          • Taiwan should be recognized as an independent country. If enough countries recognized it, China would have to accept it. They couldn't ignore all their trading partners.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Emtos View Post

                              A government rulling the largest nation on Earth cannot bre illegitimate.
                              The Republic Of China was recognized as the ONE China and legitimate government in exile, and was one of the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council as one of the five major combatant winners of WWII until 1971 when Nixon blew it and the UN followed the US lead.
                              Flag: USA / Location: West Coast

                              Prayers.

                              BoRG

                              http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8757/snap1ws8.jpg

                              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PtsX_Z3CMU

                              Comment


                              • I guess we have to figure out how to deal with the "personally cult" of Xi Jinping. One way to do it might be to ridicule him; say, gee, what is he doing, trying to imitate Kim Jong-un next door in Korea? Maybe they can ride horses together up Mount Paektu.

                                Link to Wikipedia article entitled "Xi Jinping's Cult of Personality".

                                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jin...of_personality


                                excerpt

                                Background[edit]


                                After Deng Xiaoping started the Chinese economic reforms and introduced the concept of collective leadership in the late 1970s, there was no longer a cult of personality around Chinese leaders.[6] When Xi came to power in 2012, he started centralizing power and paved the way for a cult of personality.[7]

                                The Communist Party of China has denied that there was any cult of personality. Xie Chuntao, director of the Central Party School's academic department, said the “respect and love” ordinary Chinese felt for Xi was “natural” and “heartfelt” and bore no similarities to a cult of personality.[6][8]
                                Characteristics[edit]


                                Since Xi assumed power in 2012, books, cartoons, pop songs and dance routines have honoured his rule.[9] In 2017, the local government of the Jiangxi province told Christians to replace their pictures of Jesus with Xi Jinping.[10][11][12]

                                The political ideology bearing his name, Xi Jinping Thought, was enshrined into the Communist Party's constitution in the 19th National Congress in October 2017[13] and into the state constitution in 2018.[14]CCTV also showed members of the National People's Congress "crying in happiness" because of Xi Jinping's re-election as President in 2018.[15]

                                Since October 2017, many universities across China have placed “Xi Jinping Thought” at the core of their curricula, the first time since Mao Zedong that a Chinese leader has been accorded similar academic stature.[16]

                                Former inmates in the Xinjiang re-education camps claimed that they were forced to give thanks to the leader by chanting "Long live Xi Jinping."[17]

                                In October 2018, Hunan TV started airing a game show about Xi Jinping and his ideology.[18] In January 2019, Alibaba released a mobile app for studying Xi Jinping Thought named Xuexi Qiangguo. Within two months of its release, it was downloaded 73 million times.[19][better source needed]

                                Portraits of Mao Zedong and Xi Jinping

                                There are souvenirs containing Xi Jinping's images throughout shops in China.
                                Titles[edit]


                                The party's Politburo named Xi Jinping lingxiu (领袖), a reverent term for "leader" and a title previously only given to Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong and his immediate successor Hua Guofeng.[20][21][22] He is also sometimes called the "Great Helmsman" (大舵手),[15] and in July 2018 Li Zhanshu, the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, referred to Xi as the "eternal core" of the party.[23] On 25 December 2019, the politburo officially named Xi as "People's Leader" (人民领袖; rénmín lǐngxiù), a title only Mao held previously.[24]
                                ​​​​​​​

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