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What to do about China, Long Term.

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  • #31
    A nation of 1,4 billion people will just show the middle finger to Western barbarians.
    There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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    • #32
      We shall see. They've built their economy around building for the Western barbarians. If the barbarians start pulling back those purchases, it will cause a contraction....the only question is.....how much of a contraction, and that's directly related to how much actual buying power the chinese people have.
      Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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      • #33
        Originally posted by TacCovert4 View Post
        We shall see. They've built their economy around building for the Western barbarians. If the barbarians start pulling back those purchases, it will cause a contraction....the only question is.....how much of a contraction, and that's directly related to how much actual buying power the chinese people have.
        Keep going.
        There is a lot of support for your ideas.....
        The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Karri View Post
          Whatever China did, every other country still had plenty of time to prepare, and did nothing. Well, with the exception of South Korea.
          Despite the heavy interaction between China and Taiwan in both business and travel, Taiwan is pulling through with flying colors. They locked down before China, and tested everyone before the South Koreans. They don't trust the Commies at all ever since SARS, MERS, etc.

          The two countries have a delicate relationship, and Taiwan tiptoes around eggshells to avoid embarrassing China, so they did it really silently.
          Last edited by Salinator; 25 Mar 20, 15:33.
          Flag: USA / Location: West Coast

          Prayers.

          BoRG

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          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PtsX_Z3CMU

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Emtos View Post
            A nation of 1,4 billion people will just show the middle finger to Western barbarians.
            And Western Barbarians might/could as readily show " a finger" towards China.

            Care to guess whom of the Two still survives and remains strong(er). ???

            Whom does China sell to; whom might refuse to buy from ????

            Consider a grasp upon whom currently buys from China, and could best afford to stop buying ???

            Whom realizes that in a decade or (Less) Two; Basic economics will collapse the China economy ... ???

            Deficit and Debt only carry one so far ....
            TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch

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            • #36
              Originally posted by G David Bock View Post

              And Western Barbarians might/could as readily show " a finger" towards China.

              Care to guess whom of the Two still survives and remains strong(er). ???

              Whom does China sell to; whom might refuse to buy from ????

              Consider a grasp upon whom currently buys from China, and could best afford to stop buying ???

              Whom realizes that in a decade or (Less) Two; Basic economics will collapse the China economy ... ???

              Deficit and Debt only carry one so far ....
              China is a bigger market than the whole Western world.

              You cannot refuse to buy from China. You lost many skills and companies. It will take decades to rebuild. And you will pay much more.

              Currently Deficit and Debt are Western problems.
              There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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              • #37
                China is a market that has been propped up for decades on the purchase power of the West. China has production capacity all out of proportion to their own ability to consume, and their consumption capacity would shrink if that production was curtailed due to lack of demand. China has also been devaluing their currency for decades to manipulate the market in their favor.

                Pull back from China and see how far they go on their own.
                Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by TacCovert4 View Post
                  China is a market that has been propped up for decades on the purchase power of the West. China has production capacity all out of proportion to their own ability to consume, and their consumption capacity would shrink if that production was curtailed due to lack of demand. China has also been devaluing their currency for decades to manipulate the market in their favor.

                  Pull back from China and see how far they go on their own.
                  You do realise that it's not only China that has benefited from this? See how how much your new electronics (like the device you're posting this from), all the small stuff, plus everything else will cost when you block out China. The same people why cry for factories to return to USA are sure as hell not going to work in those factories for the pennies they will pay...
                  Wisdom is personal

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Karri View Post

                    You do realise that it's not only China that has benefited from this? See how how much your new electronics (like the device you're posting this from), all the small stuff, plus everything else will cost when you block out China. The same people why cry for factories to return to USA are sure as hell not going to work in those factories for the pennies they will pay...

                    Exactly. The whole situation was created by the Western (largely American) desire for cheap consumer goods. To think going cold turkey is going to work, well I’d like to present the example of how well the response has been to voluntary calls for isolation in the US and the two week impact of that on the economy has been. Not too impressive in uniting the country and asking people to tighten their belts.

                    China had become such an integral part of the Western worlds supply chain that suddenly removing it will not happen without major economic dislocation. The investment in infrastructure US companies have invested in manufacturing over there isn’t something that can be written off easily. And so far, if the response to the Coronavirus is any indication, the US as a whole doesn’t have the stomach for it.

                    Long term planning to divest and diversity is needed. Short term would be another hard economic blow and hit to the average person’s standard of living.

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                    • #40


                      China’s growing medicinal dominance traces back to GWB. Here are a couple of examples:

                      In 2004, the PRC dumped penicillin ingredients on the global market. Most Western countries, including the U.S., could not compete with the low prices and went bankrupt. Afterward China issued a major price increase on these important ingredients, thereby cornering the market and making billions.

                      In 2005, the PRC created an artificial shortage of vitamin C by slowing production and exports. China is the primary supplier for the key ingredients to manufacture vitamin C. By 2007, Chinese pharmaceutical companies had taken over much of the world market in the production of antibiotics, analgesics, enzymes and primary amino acids. China makes 70% of the world’s penicillin, 50% of its aspirin and 35% of its acetaminophen, as well as the bulk of vitamins A, B12, C and E. China is the main supplier of the active ingredients now used in over 600 prescription and over-the-counter drugs.



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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Emtos View Post

                        China is a bigger market than the whole Western world.
                        GDP 2019, trillion $

                        US - 21.427
                        EU - 18.292
                        Cn - 14.140


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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post

                          China had become such an integral part of the Western worlds supply chain that suddenly removing it will not happen without major economic dislocation. The investment in infrastructure US companies have invested in manufacturing over there isn’t something that can be written off easily. And so far, if the response to the Coronavirus is any indication, the US as a whole doesn’t have the stomach for it.
                          Nothing like the economic dislocation that is being caused by the China virus. Why on earth should we want China to be the one that profits most when this is all over?

                          The sooner the better the West raises massive tarriffs and obstacles to trade with China, the better. Let us rebuild after this by investing in our own economies.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Gooner View Post

                            Nothing like the economic dislocation that is being caused by the China virus. Why on earth should we want China to be the one that profits most when this is all over?

                            The sooner the better the West raises massive tarriffs and obstacles to trade with China, the better. Let us rebuild after this by investing in our own economies.
                            So after or even during one of the largest economic dislocations that currently exists, the response should among other things , be to drastically increase the cost of many consumer goods and cease importing many of the goods such as medicine that China has cornered the production market on due to Western companies decisions to outsource overseas a process that has been going on with increasing intensity since the 1980s.

                            Some questions for you then:
                            Where does the money come to rebuild this manufacturing infrastructure
                            Where does the workforce willing to work cheap enough to maintain the costs needed to match the lower prices from offshoring come from?
                            Is society as a whole , a society already facing economic uncertainty, willing to pay higher prices for domestically manufactured goods? How long, if at all, will there be a corona bounce of people willing to make this sacrifice?
                            Are the raw materials available domestically to manufacture? The skills? The infrastructure?
                            How is the trade balance going to work? Are your new manufacturers just going to be for the domestic market? Is that feasible and profitable? Or will some form of state run economy be needed? Is this acceptable?
                            Who will they export to? Who will replace foreign investors? Will foreign currency reserves be an issue.

                            just some of the questions to be considered

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by CarpeDiem View Post

                              So after or even during one of the largest economic dislocations that currently exists, the response should among other things , be to drastically increase the cost of many consumer goods and cease importing many of the goods such as medicine that China has cornered the production market on due to Western companies decisions to outsource overseas a process that has been going on with increasing intensity since the 1980s.

                              Some questions for you then:
                              Where does the money come to rebuild this manufacturing infrastructure
                              Where does the workforce willing to work cheap enough to maintain the costs needed to match the lower prices from offshoring come from?
                              Is society as a whole , a society already facing economic uncertainty, willing to pay higher prices for domestically manufactured goods? How long, if at all, will there be a corona bounce of people willing to make this sacrifice?
                              Are the raw materials available domestically to manufacture? The skills? The infrastructure?
                              How is the trade balance going to work? Are your new manufacturers just going to be for the domestic market? Is that feasible and profitable? Or will some form of state run economy be needed? Is this acceptable?
                              Who will they export to? Who will replace foreign investors? Will foreign currency reserves be an issue.

                              just some of the questions to be considered
                              The money comes from banks, the workforce comes from those who have lost or who will lose their jobs.

                              But the answer to all of them is to be smart about it, obviously. Not as if the United States has not been tariffing Chinese goods already. I am sure the State Department has got plans for further tightening down.

                              Bottom line is once you make Chinese goods more expensive or unobtainable the magic of market forces will intervene

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                              • #45
                                It's not even that. It's more a case of "Once you make China have to compete on an equal footing with the rest of the planet and stop using currency manipulation and other central-planning handwaviums to gain what anywhere else would be an illegal edge, the magic of market forces will intervene"
                                Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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