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Australian federal election 2016.

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  • Australian federal election 2016.

    Australia is voting tomorrow, and the fact that we haven't had one thread here at ACG about this election campaign reflects how bland the whole thing has been. Polls suggest a close election.

    How did anyone(fellow Australians) feel about this campaign, were there any issues that the media overlooked?
    "In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
    Ernest Hemingway.

    "The more I learn about people, The more I love my dog".
    Mark Twain.

  • #2
    Will the results have any impact outside Australia? (ie will foreign, defence or trade policy differ very greatly depending on who wins?)
    Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
    Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

    Comment


    • #3
      I see it as being a failure for Turnbull and quite probably for Shorten.

      Turnbull called the election with a double dissolution of the Senate in the hope of achieving a large victory and gaining control of that house.

      If he wins, I doubt he will have a Senate majority and may end up with less power in that house than before.

      Certainly the current Liberal senator for my electorate doesn't seem as popular as last time and has campaigned very poorly (though he will probably be returned).

      If Turnbull does win, it could very well be the end for Shorten. As is typical in Australian politics in recent years his party power brokers are already sharpening their knives.

      Despite Turnbull's attempt to destroy the minors, they seem to be enjoying increasing popularity and will probably wield much power.

      The minors are often the most interesting parts of an election and it shall be interesting for example, to see how the Australian Sex Party goes.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by MarkV View Post
        Will the results have any impact outside Australia? (ie will foreign, defence or trade policy differ very greatly depending on who wins?)
        Nothing huge. If there is a minority Labor government something like the Trans Pacific Partnership might be tricky, but not much else.
        Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by BF69 View Post
          Nothing huge. If there is a minority Labor government something like the Trans Pacific Partnership might be tricky, but not much else.
          Which is the answer to why it hasn't been discussed much outside of Australia I guess

          Doubtless victory will go to the man who knows how to handle his sausage http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36692402
          Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
          Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by MarkV View Post
            Which is the answer to why it hasn't been discussed much outside of Australia I guess

            Doubtless victory will go to the man who knows how to handle his sausage http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36692402
            Didn't Bismarck mention something about that?

            Judging by the results as they stand now it may be a loss for both men. Labor won't be able to form government, but the LNP will either be in minority or just sneak over the line. This is bad news for Turnbull, who knifed a sitting PM on the promise of restoring the party's electoral fortunes. He has had to manage a disgruntled and powerful right win that will feel empowered if the result is poor. If the margin is under 4 seats I predict he won't see out his term.

            The opposition leader has done very well & may actually keep his job if he re-contests after the election. Might even be PM within 3 years.
            Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

            Comment


            • #7
              Well, we've all gone to bed without the government having won a majority. It is still in the stronger position. It has more seats than the opposition and will either just get enough to form government in its own right, or be able to rely on the votes of some rural independents.

              The leader of the opposition gave an expansive, upbeat speech aimed at the nation. The PM gave a rambling speech full of excuses & accusations (he actually called for a police investigation of the opposition!) aimed at his own party. Right wing warriors in the media are already calling for his head. In November he was up by double digits & would have walked an election. He called a Double Dissolution - a simultaneous election of all members in both houses (usually only half the Senate goes) - in order to pass difficult legislation via a rare combined sitting of the houses. Now he will face a more hostile Senate (it takes half the usual percentage of votes to win a Senate seat in a double D, so more minor parties) and still won't have enough votes in a joint sitting to pass his legislation. As the American military says, Charlie Foxtrot.

              Later this year there will be a plebiscite on Same Sex Marriage - something Turnbull was forced to agree to by the right wing of his party instead of his preferred option of a vote in Parliament. It will become a defacto & fairly open campaign by the right against Turnbull. It will also lay bare the deep divisions in the party. Labor will present a much more unified front & will push an upbeat message. His poll numbers will take a hit if they aren't already struggling. he is in very serious trouble.
              Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by BF69 View Post
                Well, we've all gone to bed without the government having won a majority. It is still in the stronger position. It has more seats than the opposition and will either just get enough to form government in its own right, or be able to rely on the votes of some rural independents.

                The leader of the opposition gave an expansive, upbeat speech aimed at the nation. The PM gave a rambling speech full of excuses & accusations (he actually called for a police investigation of the opposition!) aimed at his own party. Right wing warriors in the media are already calling for his head. In November he was up by double digits & would have walked an election. He called a Double Dissolution - a simultaneous election of all members in both houses (usually only half the Senate goes) - in order to pass difficult legislation via a rare combined sitting of the houses. Now he will face a more hostile Senate (it takes half the usual percentage of votes to win a Senate seat in a double D, so more minor parties) and still won't have enough votes in a joint sitting to pass his legislation. As the American military says, Charlie Foxtrot.

                Later this year there will be a plebiscite on Same Sex Marriage - something Turnbull was forced to agree to by the right wing of his party instead of his preferred option of a vote in Parliament. It will become a defacto & fairly open campaign by the right against Turnbull. It will also lay bare the deep divisions in the party. Labor will present a much more unified front & will push an upbeat message. His poll numbers will take a hit if they aren't already struggling. he is in very serious trouble.
                There was a big push for an electing the Senate in Canada under the Tories in the past decade. Instead the Liberals threw all their senators out of caucus and declared them independents and are trying to create a non-partisan "sober second thought" legislative review body. The Senate only has a suspensive veto over the Commons here and is docile.

                When I see the quagmire created by a more powerful, elected, and assertive Senate in Australia then I conclude that things should stay as they are in Canada. Am I right about that do you think? Can our Australian friends elaborate on the frustration of Senate resistance to passing legislation, or is your powerful Senate a good check on Executive Power and does the Senate bring regional balance not forthcoming from the Commons?

                Comment


                • #9
                  BTW, Liberal campaign guru (The Wizard of OZ) Lynton Crosby became a campaign issue in the Canadian election. Crosby distanced himself from the Tories, although he has long been known to advise the Tories and their niche politics strategy, That type of politics was completely rejected in the last election and it will be probably a long time before the Tories see power again and even then the ways of Lynton Crosby probably won't be seen here again, as he is a dirty word in political backrooms here. Is he, and his tactics, still kicking with the Liberal Party in Australia?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Wow, interesting result coming in, UK Guardian showing 69 seats for the coalition and versus 65 for Labour BUT the Liberals with only 59 seats to Labour's 65. ABC showing 67 67 and 11 in doubt, anyone in Australia still up watching?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Tough times ahead with no chance of tough legislation being made. Australia is a first world country with a third world economy. 30% of the nation's income comes from selling iron ore to China. Iron ore that's 1/3rd the price it was when politicians locked in spending on those inflated royalties, now we cover the difference with borrowing. Our politicians assumed iron ore would never drop below $150/ton over the next 20 years. That's banana republic stuff, bongo bongo land.
                      The only area booming is housing prices thanks to ponzi immigration of wealthy Chinese.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BF69 View Post
                        This is bad news for Turnbull, who knifed a sitting PM on the promise of restoring the party's electoral fortunes.
                        If Abbott was still PM instead of Turnbull, the result would be much different.

                        It would be such a landslide victory for Labor that the Liberal candidates may as well have taken an overseas holiday and not come back for a couple of years.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by eddie3rar View Post
                          Tough times ahead with no chance of tough legislation being made. Australia is a first world country with a third world economy. 30% of the nation's income comes from selling iron ore to China. Iron ore that's 1/3rd the price it was when politicians locked in spending on those inflated royalties, now we cover the difference with borrowing. Our politicians assumed iron ore would never drop below $150/ton over the next 20 years. That's banana republic stuff, bongo bongo land.
                          The only area booming is housing prices thanks to ponzi immigration of wealthy Chinese.
                          It's not quite that bad: the potential of the agricultural sector is enormous, for example.
                          As far as external affairs are concerned there would be little change regardless of who is in power. Defence matters, for example, are pretty much bi-partisan so they were not an issue in the election.
                          "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
                          Samuel Johnson.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Turnbull's idea of campaigning was to say next to nothing besides; 'these are exciting times' and just let the days roll by. Shorten was a gift to anyone willing to go in hard. His record with the AWU is damning, eg workers eba's ditched if their company paid $25 grand/year as ghost union dues to feather Shortens eventual run at politics. Turnbull didnt even throw that back in his face when Shorten talks about coalition plans for weekend award rates. union bosses are like pimps and Shorten was a classic. Turnbull just didn't have enough dog in him to do what was needed.
                            The libs should've gone with Scott Morrison or held the election during Turnbull's honeymoon period

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sparlingo View Post
                              There was a big push for an electing the Senate in Canada under the Tories in the past decade. Instead the Liberals threw all their senators out of caucus and declared them independents and are trying to create a non-partisan "sober second thought" legislative review body. The Senate only has a suspensive veto over the Commons here and is docile.

                              When I see the quagmire created by a more powerful, elected, and assertive Senate in Australia then I conclude that things should stay as they are in Canada. Am I right about that do you think? Can our Australian friends elaborate on the frustration of Senate resistance to passing legislation, or is your powerful Senate a good check on Executive Power and does the Senate bring regional balance not forthcoming from the Commons?
                              Yes and sort of.

                              The Senate does provide a useful if occasionally frustrating check on the executive. It also gives proportionately greater representation to the less populated states, which they feel acts as a balance on their smaller representation in the Lower House.

                              Our system favours larger parties or geographically focused parties in the Lower House. The Greens pull over 10% of the vote, but may end up with only one seat. In the Senate, on the other hand, they have 9 seats. The Senate is a useful way to allow more diverse representation. Your Lower House seems a bit different, so that may not be as big an issue.

                              The 'quagmire' is over stated. Since 1977 the government of the day has only had a majority in the Senate for one 3 year term, and the legislation it passed then probably cost it government (oh the irony). Governments that bother to learn how to negotiate can get a lot done. The previous Labor Government lacked a majority in either house & managed to get a lot of legislation passed because it was a good negotiator. When Abbott came to power in 2013 he treated the Senate with extreme hostility & treated negotiation as if it were weakness. The stupidity of that is that ideologically the independents in the Senate leaned right, but the PM & his thuggish offsiders put them all off side.

                              I like the idea of an elected second chamber, provided you set a a method that is different to the Lower house. Its useful to have a house of review with some teeth. The fact that governments are always complaining about it probably means it is doing some good.
                              Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

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